Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd HK$2.00, price HK$1.47, upside +36.1%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.27 – HK$2.38 · fair‑value band HK$1.90 – HK$2.19 · the HK$1.47 price screens below the HK$2.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Sino Hotels (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, operates and manages hotels in Hong Kong.
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Sino Hotels (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, operates and manages hotels in Hong Kong. It operates hotels under the Conrad Hong Kong, City Garden Hotel, the Royal Pacific Hotel & Towers, the Olympian Hong Kong, Hong Kong Gold Coast Hotel, the Pottinger Hong Kong, and the Fullerton Ocean Park Hotel Hong Kong names in Hong Kong; and the Fullerton Hotel and the Fullerton Bay Hotel names in Singapore, as well as the Fullerton Hotel in Sydney. The company also operates clubs under the Gold Coast Yacht & Country Club name. In addition, it engages in the club and cafe operation activities; provision of nominee services; and share and bond investment activities. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221) currently trades at HK$1.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.00, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$2.38 per share, and 14 of the 20 models we run sit above the HK$1.47 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.6800, and 6 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.90 (bear) to HK$2.19 (bull), the price of HK$1.47 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$127M in FY2026 versus HK$129M in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$97.5M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.8B (≈ $225M) · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 14.2 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 76.5% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin −7.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 36%, 1221 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.90Fair Value HK$2.00Bull HK$2.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−13% → 11%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+36.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Return on assets−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)76.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−7.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.00 versus a price of HK$1.47, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1221?
Our model-based fair value for Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is HK$2.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.47.
What is the quality score of 1221?
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.90, optimistic scenario HK$2.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.00, about +36% upside versus a price of HK$1.47 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.90, optimistic scenario HK$2.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$127M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1221 use?
Our models discount Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.28 %: that much free cash flow Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd it is HK$2.00 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.47. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1221 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.47, fair value HK$2.00, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1221?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.00). For Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.5300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.47; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1221?
Our models span a range for Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.90, base HK$2.00, optimistic HK$2.19 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1221?
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 13.8, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1221 from its 52-week high?
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.47, about 21% below its 52-week high of HK$1.86 and 8% above the low of HK$1.36 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.47, calculated fair value HK$2.00 (+36%), Quality Score 67/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1221 calculated?
We run Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.47. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.00, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221) come from?
Earnings per share at Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd grew −9.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −10.6 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The market capitalisation of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is HK$1.8B (≈ $225M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is 14.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The dividend yield of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is 2.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The net margin of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is 76.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
The operating margin of Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is −7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
Revenue at Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221)?
Earnings per share at Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd are growing −25.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd (1221) hold?
Sino Hotels Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$1.7B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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