Niraku GC Holdings (1245) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$218M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1595 to HK$0.1580 (−0.9%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +15.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1991). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1378 – HK$0.3781 · fair‑value band HK$0.1185 – HK$0.1991 · the HK$0.2140 price screens above the HK$0.1580 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Niraku GC Holdings (1245) currently trades at HK$0.2140, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1580, implying the stock looks roughly 26.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Niraku GC Holdings generated revenue of HK$33.9B at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. Net debt stands at HK$24.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1185 (bear case) to HK$0.1991 (bull case); at HK$0.2140, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -26%, 1245 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.1597) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0488). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Niraku GC Holdings, Inc., an investment holding company, engages in the operation of pachinko and pachislot halls in Japan.
Full company description
Niraku GC Holdings, Inc., an investment holding company, engages in the operation of pachinko and pachislot halls in Japan. The company operates a Spanish restaurant franchise under the LIZARRAN brand name; cafes under the KOMEDA brand name; Japanese-style Spanish cuisine under the PLANCHA L THE YOKOHAMA FRONT brand; and tea cafes under the Gong Cha brand name, as well as hotels, restaurants, and amusement arcade. It also engages in the real estate investment business; wholesale of computer games, sporting, and other recreational goods; property, security, and equity management and consultation; food and beverage operation and management; and provision of hotel and human resource management, and cleaning services. The company was formerly known as Niraku Global Community Holdings Inc. Niraku GC Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Koriyama, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Niraku GC Holdings reported revenue of HK$33.6B in FY2026 versus HK$22.2B in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.1B in FY2026.
of which total revenue −0.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1245 screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $45.68 | $51.60 | +13% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$40.46 | +18% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$14.34 | HK$2.05 | -86% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $43.98 | $17.73 | -60% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $102.97 | $69.39 | -33% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $63.09 | $18.01 | -71% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $82.98 | $151.24 | +82% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.74 | $80.92 | +172% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6400 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +8% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $148.36 | $132.94 | -10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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