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Nexteer Automotive Group (1316) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$9.8B

NA Nexteer Automotive Group 1316 · HK
PriceHK$4.96
Fair ValueHK$0.8900
Upside-82.1%
Quality64/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.47% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.6700 – HK$1.12 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +29.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 82% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$11.11 HK$2.23 Fair Value HK$0.8900 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.23 – HK$11.11 · fair‑value band HK$0.6700 – HK$1.12 · the HK$4.96 price screens above the HK$0.8900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Nexteer Automotive Group (1316) currently trades at HK$4.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.8900, implying the stock looks roughly 82.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Nexteer Automotive Group generated revenue of HK$4.6B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$414M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.6700 (bear case) to HK$1.12 (bull case); at HK$4.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -82%, 1316 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.1200 to HK$2.32). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.32 HK$1.81 HK$2.46 80
Residual Income HK$0.6300 HK$0.6300 HK$0.5800 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.9400 HK$1.30 HK$1.70 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.30 HK$1.84 HK$2.61 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.23 HK$1.73 HK$2.45 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.9400 HK$1.28 HK$1.70 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.49 HK$2.28 HK$3.19 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.9700 HK$1.32 HK$1.68 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.05 HK$1.38 HK$1.80 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.41 HK$2.06 HK$2.89 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.08 HK$1.41 HK$1.79 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2800 HK$0.7800 HK$1.03 54
Lynch FV HK$0.1600 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1600 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 46
EPV HK$0.5700 HK$0.6300 HK$0.6800 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0800 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2300 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.6700 HK$0.8900 HK$1.12 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5200 HK$0.6900 HK$0.8600 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.5200 HK$0.6900 HK$0.8600 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.05 HK$1.35 HK$1.64 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.79 HK$2.32 HK$2.86 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.7700 HK$1.02 HK$1.27 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.4200 HK$0.5600 HK$0.8400 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.32 HK$1.81 HK$2.46 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.9400 HK$1.30 HK$1.70 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.6300 HK$0.6300 HK$0.5800 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.5700 HK$0.6300 HK$0.6800 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5300 HK$0.7600 HK$0.9900 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.41) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$4.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.6%
Net margin 2.2%
Return on equity 5.4%
Free cash flow HK$267M FY2025
P/E ratio 12.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 4.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300
Dividend yield 0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -16.3%
Net cash HK$414M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 11
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Nexteer Automotive Group Limited, a motion control technology company, develops, manufactures, and supplies steering and driveline systems to original equipment manufacturers in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally.

Full company description

Nexteer Automotive Group Limited, a motion control technology company, develops, manufactures, and supplies steering and driveline systems to original equipment manufacturers in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers electric power steering (EPS) products, which include steer-by-wire, rear-wheel steering, rack-assist electric power steering, single and dual pinion-assist EPS, modular EPS, column-assist electric power steering, automated steering actuators, and modular power packs. The company also provides steering column technologies, such as towable steering column, power tilt and telescope, power rake and telescope, transmission shifter, intermediate shafts, electronics, modules, sub-assemblies, and non-adjustable columns; and driveline products, comprising half shaft technologies and solutions. In addition, it offers hydraulic power steering products, which comprise magnetic torque overlay, smart flow, power steering pump and reservoir, rack and pinion, and recirculation ball steering gear products, as well as aftermarket solutions; and software products for steering, road surface detection, vehicle health management, brake-to-steer, and safety and cybersecurity. Further, the company provides megatrend alignment solutions, which include electrification, software and connectivity, shared mobility, and advanced driver assistance system and automated driving products. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Nexteer Automotive Group reported revenue of HK$4.6B in FY2025 versus HK$3.4B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$102M in FY2025, compounding −3.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$4.6B
Latest YoY
+7.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.6%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.2%
Revenue +8.1%/yr
FY21 HK$3.4B
FY22 HK$3.8B
FY23 HK$4.2B
FY24 HK$4.3B
FY25 HK$4.6B
Net income −3.7%/yr
FY21 HK$118M
FY22 HK$58.0M
FY23 HK$36.7M
FY24 HK$61.7M
FY25 HK$102M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −12.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.8 pp

of which total revenue +2.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −13.7 pp
Tax rate −2.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1316 screens 82% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

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Nexteer Automotive Group · Fair Value
HK$0.8900 −82%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nexteer Automotive Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1316

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.59× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.27× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 16
FUTURE 38 · sector 23
PAST 21 · sector 26
HEALTH 99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 9 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Nexteer Automotive Group (1316) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.8900 versus a price of HK$4.96, about −82% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1316?
Our model-based fair value for Nexteer Automotive Group is HK$0.8900 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$4.96.
What is the quality score of 1316?
Nexteer Automotive Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Nexteer Automotive Group (1316)?
Nexteer Automotive Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1316?
The net profit margin of Nexteer Automotive Group is about 2.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nexteer Automotive Group pay a dividend?
Nexteer Automotive Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.47% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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