Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd HK$0.09, price HK$0.17, upside -45.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0280 – HK$0.3850 · fair‑value band HK$0.0700 – HK$0.1000 · the HK$0.1650 price screens above the HK$0.0900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Quali-Smart Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of toys and other products. The company operates through two segments, Manufacturing and Sales of Toys; and Financial Services.
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Quali-Smart Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of toys and other products. The company operates through two segments, Manufacturing and Sales of Toys; and Financial Services. It also offers securities brokerage, securities margin financing, investment and corporate finance advisory, and asset management services, as well as fund management, and underwriting and placing services. In addition, the company is involved in the trading and investment of securities, debts, and funds. It operates in the United States and Canada; the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Belgium, Italy, the Czech Republic, Spain, and the Netherlands; the People's Republic of China and Taiwan; the Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico; Australia, New Zealand, and Pacific Islands; and Hong Kong, Africa, India, Japan, Korea, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Southeast Asia, and South America. Quali-Smart Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348) currently trades at HK$0.1650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0900, 45.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.0800 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$0.1650 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0200, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0700 (bear) to HK$0.1000 (bull), the price of HK$0.1650 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$71.9M in FY2025 versus HK$486M in FY2021, a compound −38.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$17.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$357M (≈ $45.5M) · P/S ratio 12.7 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −24.8% · Return on equity −77.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.9% · Operating margin −52.7% · Revenue (TTM) HK$28.0M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −45%, 1348 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0700Fair Value HK$0.0900Bull HK$0.1000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−59.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −21.7% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.2% (2020) → −31.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price.
Compare Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 183 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−45.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−9.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−89.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−52.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−52.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.19× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.62× · Pricier than median
P/FCF3.8× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)50· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0900 versus a price of HK$0.1650, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1348?
Our model-based fair value for Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1650.
What is the quality score of 1348?
Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0700, optimistic scenario HK$0.1000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0900, about −45% upside versus a price of HK$0.1650 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0700, optimistic scenario HK$0.1000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$28.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -29.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1348 use?
Our models discount Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd that is +4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd grew -29.5 % a year. The price currently implies +4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (+4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.90 %: that much free cash flow Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.0900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1650. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1348 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1650, fair value HK$0.0900, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1348?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0900). For Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0750 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd at about HK$357M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1650; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1348?
Our models span a range for Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0700, base HK$0.0900, optimistic HK$0.1000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
Balance-sheet figures for Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −77.1%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1348 from its 52-week high?
Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.1650, about 57% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3850 and 46% above the low of HK$0.1130 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1650, calculated fair value HK$0.0900 (−45%), Quality Score 54/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1348 calculated?
We run Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1650. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0900, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
The market capitalisation of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is HK$357M (≈ $45.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is 12.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
Earnings per share at Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
The net margin of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is −24.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is −77.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is −12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
The operating margin of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is −52.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348)?
Revenue at Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is growing −52.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −45.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd (1348) carry?
The net debt of Quali-Smart Holdings Ltd is HK$18.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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