ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd HK$0.35, price HK$0.12, upside +189.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0500 – HK$0.2000 · fair‑value band HK$0.2400 – HK$0.4300 · the HK$0.1210 price screens below the HK$0.3500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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ELL Environmental Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, designs, constructs, operates, and maintains wastewater treatment facilities in the People's Republic of China and Indonesia. The company owns and operates wastewater treatment facilities for treating municipal and industrial wastewater.
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ELL Environmental Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, designs, constructs, operates, and maintains wastewater treatment facilities in the People's Republic of China and Indonesia. The company owns and operates wastewater treatment facilities for treating municipal and industrial wastewater. It also engages in the production of biofuel pellet; construction and operation of biomass power plants; generation of electricity from biomass power plants; manufacture and sell of wood pellets; and provision of information technology services. The company serves local government authorities. ELL Environmental Holdings Limited was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Rugao, China.
Stock analysis
ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395) currently trades at HK$0.1210, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3500, implying the stock looks roughly 65.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.4200 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.1210 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1700, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2400 (bear) to HK$0.4300 (bull), the price of HK$0.1210 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$167M in FY2025 versus HK$103M in FY2021, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$21.3M in FY2025, compounding +36.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$134M (≈ $17.1M) · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 22.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 189%, 1395 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2400Fair Value HK$0.3500Bull HK$0.4300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.0% vs 3.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 27%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price.
Compare ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+189.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.4% · Above median
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)22.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3500 versus a price of HK$0.1210, about +189% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1395?
Our model-based fair value for ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3500 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1210.
What is the quality score of 1395?
ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3500 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2400, optimistic scenario HK$0.4300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3500, about +189% upside versus a price of HK$0.1210 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2400, optimistic scenario HK$0.4300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$167M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1395 use?
Our models discount ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd that is +11.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd grew +23.1 % a year. The price currently implies +11.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (+11.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.30 %: that much free cash flow ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.3500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1210. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1395 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1210, fair value HK$0.3500, a gap of about +189% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1395?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1210); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3500). For ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2290 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd at about HK$134M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1210; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1395?
Our models span a range for ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2400, base HK$0.3500, optimistic HK$0.4300 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1210). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1395?
ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
Balance-sheet figures for ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1395 from its 52-week high?
ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.1210, about 33% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1810 and 7% above the low of HK$0.1130 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1210, calculated fair value HK$0.3500 (+189%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1395 calculated?
We run ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1210. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3500, about +189% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2400). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
The market capitalisation of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is HK$134M (≈ $17.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
Earnings per share at ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
The net margin of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is 12.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
The operating margin of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
Revenue at ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is growing +13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395)?
Earnings per share at ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd are growing +45.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd (1395) carry?
The net debt of ELL Environmental Holdings Ltd is HK$14.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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