DPC Dash Ltd (1405) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of DPC Dash Ltd HK$57.00, price HK$30.04, upside +89.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range HK$28.26 – HK$114.30 · fair‑value band HK$39.90 – HK$74.10 · the HK$30.04 price screens below the HK$57.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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DPC Dash Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of fast-food restaurants in the People's Republic of China. It offers fast-food products, such as pizza, and beverages. In addition, the company engages in restaurant management, dough production, and provides warehousing services.
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DPC Dash Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates a chain of fast-food restaurants in the People's Republic of China. It offers fast-food products, such as pizza, and beverages. In addition, the company engages in restaurant management, dough production, and provides warehousing services. DPC Dash Ltd was formerly known as Dash Brands Ltd and changed its name to DPC Dash Ltd in September 2021. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
DPC Dash Ltd (1405) currently trades at HK$30.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$57.00, implying the stock looks roughly 47.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$86.11 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$30.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$14.50, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$39.90 (bear) to HK$74.10 (bull), the price of HK$30.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
DPC Dash Ltd reported revenue of 5.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +34.3%/yr. Reported net income was 138M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.1B (≈ $518M) · P/E ratio 26.2 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.4900 · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% · Operating margin 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 90%, 1405 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$39.90Fair Value HK$57.00Bull HK$74.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3678 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
’19
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15.4% (2019) → 4.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.3% a year for the price and +17.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (49 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+89.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$57.00 versus a price of HK$30.04, about +90% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1405?
Our model-based fair value for DPC Dash Ltd is HK$57.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$30.04.
What is the quality score of 1405?
DPC Dash Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$57.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$39.90, optimistic scenario HK$74.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DPC Dash Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$57.00, about +90% upside versus a price of HK$30.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$39.90, optimistic scenario HK$74.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
DPC Dash Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DPC Dash Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -10.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1405 use?
Our models discount DPC Dash Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DPC Dash Ltd that is -10.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DPC Dash Ltd (1405) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DPC Dash Ltd grew +36.6 % a year. The price currently implies -10.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DPC Dash Ltd (1405) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DPC Dash Ltd (-10.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.61 %: that much free cash flow DPC Dash Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DPC Dash Ltd it is HK$57.00 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$30.04. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DPC Dash Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1405 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$30.04, fair value HK$57.00, a gap of about +90% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1405?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$30.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$57.00). For DPC Dash Ltd the two are HK$26.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DPC Dash Ltd worth?
The market values DPC Dash Ltd at about HK$4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$30.04; our models calculate a fair value of HK$57.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1405?
Our models span a range for DPC Dash Ltd: cautious scenario HK$39.90, base HK$57.00, optimistic HK$74.10 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$30.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1405?
DPC Dash Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$57.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
Balance-sheet figures for DPC Dash Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1405 from its 52-week high?
DPC Dash Ltd trades at HK$30.04, about 67% below its 52-week high of HK$90.80 and 6% above the low of HK$28.26 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$57.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DPC Dash Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DPC Dash Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$30.04, calculated fair value HK$57.00 (+90%), Quality Score 41/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1405 calculated?
We run DPC Dash Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$57.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. DPC Dash Ltd currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$30.04. Our model-based fair value is HK$57.00, about +90% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DPC Dash Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$39.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (HK$39.90 to HK$74.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of DPC Dash Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
The market capitalisation of DPC Dash Ltd is HK$4.1B (≈ $518M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DPC Dash Ltd is 0.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
Earnings per share at DPC Dash Ltd are HK$0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
The net margin of DPC Dash Ltd is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DPC Dash Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DPC Dash Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
The operating margin of DPC Dash Ltd is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
Revenue at DPC Dash Ltd is growing +22.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DPC Dash Ltd (1405)?
Earnings per share at DPC Dash Ltd are growing +65.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does DPC Dash Ltd (1405) carry?
The net debt of DPC Dash Ltd is 1.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026