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Riverine China Holdings (1417) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Riverine China Holdings HK$0.94, price HK$4.77, upside -80.3%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · HK · ISIN KYG7587R1092

RC Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Riverine China Holdings

1417 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.9400 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$9.37 HK$0.1710 Fair Value HK$0.9400 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1710 – HK$9.37 · fair‑value band HK$0.8000 – HK$1.10 · the HK$4.77 price screens above the HK$0.9400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Riverine China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management service for high-end non-residential properties in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Property Management Services; Urban Sanitary Services; Sublease Services from Investment Properties; Catering Services; and Others.

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Riverine China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management service for high-end non-residential properties in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Property Management Services; Urban Sanitary Services; Sublease Services from Investment Properties; Catering Services; and Others. The company manages public properties, such as cultural venues, stadiums, exhibition halls, rail station, and airport; commercial establishments, including shopping malls, hotels, commercial, and entertainment complexes; residential properties, and others comprising schools, land parcels, industrial areas, and properties under construction. It also offers urban sanitary services which includes road cleaning, refuse classification, collection and transportation, and maintenance of public environmental sanitary facilities, such as public toilets and garbage containers. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of technology research; engineering, operating, and property management services; sublease business; and hardware wholesale business. Riverine China Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company operates as a subsidiary of Partner Summit Holdings Limited. As of June 15, 2026, Riverine China Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Youmi Investment Liimited.

Stock analysis

Riverine China Holdings (1417) currently trades at HK$4.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.9400, implying the stock looks roughly 406.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.9700 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$4.77 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2100, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.8000 (bear) to HK$1.10 (bull), the price of HK$4.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Riverine China Holdings reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 886M CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −25.0M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.9B (≈ $241M) · P/S ratio 1.28 · Net margin −2.3% · Return on equity −7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1% · Operating margin 0.7% · Revenue (TTM) 1.1B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) +9.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 2,283% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −80%, 1417 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.8000 Fair Value HK$0.9400 Bull HK$1.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.7600 HK$0.9700 HK$1.27 82
Growth DCF HK$0.7600 HK$0.9400 HK$1.18 80
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9300 HK$1.36 HK$1.88 75
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.7600 HK$0.9700 HK$1.27 82
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5800 HK$0.6400 HK$0.7100 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9300 HK$1.36 HK$1.88 75
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6500 HK$0.7300 HK$0.8300 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.8500 HK$1.17 HK$1.66 69
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$1.12 HK$1.36 HK$1.60 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.4600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.5100 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1600 HK$0.2100 HK$0.3100 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.7600 HK$0.9400 HK$1.18 80

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 5
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 46/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

1417 screens 407% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.25× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.03× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 95.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)48 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 65

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 236,000 VND 25,731 VND −89%
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Vonovia SE VNA €17.09 €36.67 +115%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €25.33 €23.78 −6%
KE Holdings 2423 HK$42.78 HK$17.18 −60%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $324.06 $530.17 +64%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.40 HK$13.50 −45%
CoStar Group CSGP $28.77 $6.17 −79%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$37.44 HK$56.43 +51%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.62 SGD 0.5000 SGD −81%

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HK$0.9400 −407%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Riverine China Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1417

Frequently asked questions

Is Riverine China Holdings (1417) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.9400 versus a price of HK$4.77, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1417?
Our model-based fair value for Riverine China Holdings is HK$0.9400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.77.
What is the quality score of 1417?
Riverine China Holdings has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.9400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8000, optimistic scenario HK$1.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Riverine China Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.9400, about −80% upside versus a price of HK$4.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8000, optimistic scenario HK$1.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Riverine China Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Riverine China Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1417 use?
Our models discount Riverine China Holdings at 15.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.67, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Riverine China Holdings that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Riverine China Holdings (1417) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Riverine China Holdings grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Riverine China Holdings (1417) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Riverine China Holdings (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.17 %: that much free cash flow Riverine China Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Riverine China Holdings it is HK$0.9400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$4.77. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Riverine China Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1417 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$4.77, fair value HK$0.9400, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1417?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.9400). For Riverine China Holdings the two are HK$3.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Riverine China Holdings worth?
The market values Riverine China Holdings at about HK$1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.77; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.9400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1417?
Our models span a range for Riverine China Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.8000, base HK$0.9400, optimistic HK$1.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$4.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Balance-sheet figures for Riverine China Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.7%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1417 from its 52-week high?
Riverine China Holdings trades at HK$4.77, about 49% below its 52-week high of HK$9.37 and 2,283% above the low of HK$0.2000 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.9400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Riverine China Holdings?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Riverine China Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$4.77, calculated fair value HK$0.9400 (−80%), Quality Score 49/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1417 calculated?
We run Riverine China Holdings through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.9400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Riverine China Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$4.77. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.9400, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Riverine China Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Riverine China Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The market capitalisation of Riverine China Holdings is HK$1.9B (≈ $241M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Riverine China Holdings is 1.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The net margin of Riverine China Holdings is −2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Riverine China Holdings is −7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Riverine China Holdings is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The operating margin of Riverine China Holdings is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Revenue at Riverine China Holdings is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Earnings per share at Riverine China Holdings are growing +690% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Riverine China Holdings (1417) carry?
The net debt of Riverine China Holdings is 257M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 95.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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