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Riverine China Holdings (1417) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Riverine China Holdings stock HK$0.86, price HK$4.45, that is 80.7% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate HK · Based in China · ISIN KYG7587R1092

RC Riverine China Holdings logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Riverine China Holdings

1417 · HK
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 81% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 47/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.1 %/yr in CNY)
Fair value HK$0.8600 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -1.4% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow over the last twelve months
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 20/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$9.37 HK$0.1710 Fair Value HK$0.8600 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1710 – HK$9.37 · fair‑value band HK$0.7400 – HK$1.01 · the HK$4.45 price screens above the HK$0.8600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Riverine China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management service for high-end non-residential properties in Mainland China.

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It operates through five segments: Property Management Services; Urban Sanitary Services; Sublease Services from Investment Properties; Catering Services; and Others.

The company manages public properties, such as cultural venues, stadiums, exhibition halls, rail station, and airport; commercial establishments, including shopping malls, hotels, commercial, and entertainment complexes; residential properties, and others comprising schools, land parcels, industrial areas, and properties under construction.

It also offers urban sanitary services which includes road cleaning, refuse classification, collection and transportation, and maintenance of public environmental sanitary facilities, such as public toilets and garbage containers.

In addition, the company is involved in the provision of technology research; engineering, operating, and property management services; sublease business; and hardware wholesale business. Riverine China Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

The company operates as a subsidiary of Partner Summit Holdings Limited. As of June 15, 2026, Riverine China Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Youmi Investment Liimited.

Stock analysis

Riverine China Holdings (1417) currently trades at HK$4.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.8600, 81% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.8900 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$4.45 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2000, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.7400 (bear) to HK$1.01 (bull), the price of HK$4.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Riverine China Holdings reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 886M CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −25.0M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.0B (≈ $253M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.97 · Net margin −1.4% · Return on equity −3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.1% · Revenue (TTM) 1.1B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) +3.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 2,125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −81%, 1417 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.7400 Fair Value HK$0.8600 Bull HK$1.01
Price HK$4.45 · Downside -80.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF HK$0.7500 HK$0.8900 HK$1.08 82
Growth DCF HK$0.7400 HK$0.8600 HK$1.01 80
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9400 HK$1.34 HK$1.84 76
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.7500 HK$0.8900 HK$1.08 82
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6100 HK$0.6700 HK$0.7400 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.9400 HK$1.34 HK$1.84 76
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6700 HK$0.7400 HK$0.8300 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.8400 HK$1.10 HK$1.50 69
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$0.1000 HK$0.3600 HK$0.6200 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2900 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.7400 HK$0.8600 HK$1.01 80

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 24
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 13
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 23
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 67
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 73
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 46/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.

1417 screens overvalued: fair value 81% below the price. Compare with CBRE Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 472 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −81.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −1.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.25× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 13.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.58× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 78.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)19 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 66

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vonovia SE VNA €16.90 €36.43 +116% vs 1417
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $370.80 $529.78 +43% vs 1417
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$41.64 HK$55.21 +33% vs 1417
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €26.68 €23.62 −11% vs 1417
Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 HK$32.54 HK$27.21 −16% vs 1417
CBRE Group CBRE $135.51 $89.81 −34% vs 1417
KE Holdings BEKE $18.85 $7.33 −61% vs 1417
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.36 SGD 0.7800 SGD −67% vs 1417
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$26.36 HK$5.88 −78% vs 1417
CoStar Group CSGP $30.55 $6.09 −80% vs 1417

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Riverine China Holdings: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Riverine China Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1417

Frequently asked questions

Is Riverine China Holdings (1417) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.8600 versus a price of HK$4.45, about 81% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1417?
Our model-based fair value for Riverine China Holdings is HK$0.8600 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.45.
What is the quality score of 1417?
Riverine China Holdings has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.8600 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.7400, optimistic scenario HK$1.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Riverine China Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.8600, about 81% lower versus a price of HK$4.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.7400, optimistic scenario HK$1.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Riverine China Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Riverine China Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1417 use?
Our models discount Riverine China Holdings at 15.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.82, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Riverine China Holdings that is more than 80 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (15.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Riverine China Holdings (1417) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Riverine China Holdings grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of more than 80 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Riverine China Holdings (1417) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Riverine China Holdings (more than 80 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.18 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Riverine China Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Riverine China Holdings it is HK$0.8600 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of HK$4.45. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Riverine China Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 1417 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$4.45, fair value HK$0.8600, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1417?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.8600). For Riverine China Holdings the two are HK$3.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Riverine China Holdings worth?
The market values Riverine China Holdings at about HK$2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.45; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.8600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1417?
Our models span a range for Riverine China Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.7400, base HK$0.8600, optimistic HK$1.01 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price HK$4.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Balance-sheet figures for Riverine China Holdings (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −3.4%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1417 from its 52-week high?
Riverine China Holdings trades at HK$4.45, about 53% below its 52-week high of HK$9.37 and 2,125% above the low of HK$0.2000 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.8600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Riverine China Holdings?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Riverine China Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price HK$4.45, calculated fair value HK$0.8600 (−81%), Quality Score 47/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1417 calculated?
We run Riverine China Holdings through 8 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.8600 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Riverine China Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was HK$4.45. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.8600, about 81% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Riverine China Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Riverine China Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The market capitalisation of Riverine China Holdings is HK$2.0B (≈ $253M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Riverine China Holdings is 1.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The net margin of Riverine China Holdings is −1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Riverine China Holdings is −3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Riverine China Holdings is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
The operating margin of Riverine China Holdings is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Revenue at Riverine China Holdings is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Riverine China Holdings (1417)?
Earnings per share at Riverine China Holdings are growing +690% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Riverine China Holdings (1417) carry?
The net debt of Riverine China Holdings is 257M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 95.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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