Riverine China Holdings (1417) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$1.4B
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 5, 2026, revised from HK$0.4800 to HK$3.84 (+700.0%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +123.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.65 to HK$6.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1710 – HK$8.20 · fair‑value band HK$1.65 – HK$6.04 · the HK$8.20 price screens above the HK$3.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
Riverine China Holdings (1417) currently trades at HK$8.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.84, implying the stock looks roughly 53.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Riverine China Holdings generated revenue of HK$1.1B at a net margin of -2.3%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.7%. Net debt stands at HK$257M. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.65 (bear case) to HK$6.04 (bull case); at HK$8.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at -53%, 1417 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.5100) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Riverine China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management service for high-end non-residential properties in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Property Management Services; Urban Sanitary Services; Sublease Services from Investment Properties; Catering Services; and Others.
Full company description
Riverine China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management service for high-end non-residential properties in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Property Management Services; Urban Sanitary Services; Sublease Services from Investment Properties; Catering Services; and Others. The company manages public properties, such as cultural venues, stadiums, exhibition halls, rail station, and airport; commercial establishments, including shopping malls, hotels, commercial, and entertainment complexes; residential properties, and others comprising schools, land parcels, industrial areas, and properties under construction. It also offers urban sanitary services which includes road cleaning, refuse classification, collection and transportation, and maintenance of public environmental sanitary facilities, such as public toilets and garbage containers. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of technology research; engineering, operating, and property management services; sublease business; and hardware wholesale business. Riverine China Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company operates as a subsidiary of Partner Summit Holdings Limited. As of June 15, 2026, Riverine China Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Youmi Investment Liimited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Riverine China Holdings reported revenue of HK$1.1B in FY2025 versus HK$886M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$25.0M in FY2025.
1417 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 223,000 VND | 25,731 VND | -88% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$44.76 | HK$18.03 | -60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,530 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -2% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 3,998 ARS | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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