China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd HK$0.31, price HK$0.23, upside +34.8%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1490 – HK$4.35 · fair‑value band HK$0.0620 – HK$0.3100 · the HK$0.2300 price screens below the HK$0.3100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Tianbao Group Development Company Limited operates as a property developer and construction company in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Property Development and Others, and Construction Contracting.
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China Tianbao Group Development Company Limited operates as a property developer and construction company in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Property Development and Others, and Construction Contracting. The Property Development segment develops and sells residential properties, as well as leases and operates investment property. The Construction Contracting segment provides construction contracting services primarily as a general contractor for building construction projects; and infrastructure construction projects, such as urban roads, bridges, facilities for water supply and treatment, urban pipelines, city squares, and street lighting. It also undertakes industrial and commercial construction projects comprising steel structure, horticulture, buildings, industrial buildings, and preservation of antiquities and historical buildings. This segment serves property developers and local government entities. China Tianbao Group Development Company Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Zhuozhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427) currently trades at HK$0.2300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3100, implying the stock looks roughly 25.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.6800 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$0.2300 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$0.4100, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0620 (bear) to HK$0.3100 (bull), the price of HK$0.2300 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was −124M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$201M (≈ $25.7M) · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0400 · Net margin −7.3% · Return on equity −15.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% · Operating margin −6.7% · Revenue (TTM) 1.7B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 35%, 1427 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0620Fair Value HK$0.3100Bull HK$0.3100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.9% (2020) → −4.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.9% a year for the price.
Compare China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+34.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−7.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−28.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1427
Frequently asked questions
Is China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3100 versus a price of HK$0.2300, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1427?
Our model-based fair value for China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is HK$0.3100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2300.
What is the quality score of 1427?
China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0620, optimistic scenario HK$0.3100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3100, about +35% upside versus a price of HK$0.2300 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0620, optimistic scenario HK$0.3100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -12.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1427 use?
Our models discount China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd that is +33.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd grew -12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +33.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (+33.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.37 %: that much free cash flow China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd it is HK$0.3100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2300. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1427 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2300, fair value HK$0.3100, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1427?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3100). For China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd the two are HK$0.0800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd at about HK$201M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2300; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1427?
Our models span a range for China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0620, base HK$0.3100, optimistic HK$0.3100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −15.3%, debt of 1.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1427 from its 52-week high?
China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd trades at HK$0.2300, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2850 and 54% above the low of HK$0.1490 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2300, calculated fair value HK$0.3100 (+35%), Quality Score 26/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1427 calculated?
We run China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2300. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3100, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0620 to HK$0.3100). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
The market capitalisation of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is HK$201M (≈ $25.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
Earnings per share at China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd are HK$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
The net margin of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is −7.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is −15.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
The operating margin of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
Revenue at China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is growing −28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427)?
Earnings per share at China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd are growing −95.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd (1427) carry?
The net debt of China Tianbao Group Dev Co Ltd is 1.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 53.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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