EN DE

Lily Logistics Development Co (1443) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TW · Market cap 3.6B TWD

LL Lily Logistics Development Co 1443 · TW
Price26.05 TWD
Fair Value11.72 TWD
Upside-55.0%
Quality43/100
Watch Lily Logistics Development Co for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 15.7% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Moderate moat 57/100
Evidence: Medium Range 11.72 TWD – 22.95 TWD Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price −0.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 55% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (22.95 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (11.72 TWD to 22.95 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

35.50 TWD 10.80 TWD Fair Value 11.72 TWD Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 10.80 TWD – 35.50 TWD · fair‑value band 11.72 TWD – 22.95 TWD · the 26.05 TWD price screens above the 11.72 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Lily Logistics Development Co (1443) currently trades at 26.05 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.72 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 55.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Lily Logistics Development Co generated revenue of 951M TWD at a net margin of 15.7%. Revenue declined 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 4.5B TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 11.72 TWD (bear case) to 22.95 TWD (bull case); at 26.05 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -55%, 1443 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder 2.56 TWD 5.34 TWD 72
Growth-Adj P/E 13.17 TWD 18.81 TWD 24.45 TWD 68
P/E Multiple 18.68 TWD 24.90 TWD 31.13 TWD 63
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 7.70 TWD 9.41 TWD 10.58 TWD 54
EPV 2.56 TWD 5.34 TWD 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 18.68 TWD 24.90 TWD 31.13 TWD 63
P/S Multiple 6.52 TWD 8.69 TWD 10.87 TWD 58
P/B Multiple 14.43 TWD 19.24 TWD 24.05 TWD 55
EV/EBIT 12.60 TWD 23.83 TWD 35.06 TWD 53
EV/EBITDA 10.09 TWD 20.49 TWD 30.88 TWD 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8.49 TWD 11.37 TWD 16.97 TWD 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 13.42 TWD 13.94 TWD 14.39 TWD 61
ROIC Compounder 2.56 TWD 5.34 TWD 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 13.17 TWD 18.81 TWD 24.45 TWD 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (20.49 TWD) versus Earnings-Based (2.56 TWD). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Notify me when 1443 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 951M TWD
Revenue growth (YoY) -11.7%
Net margin 15.7%
Return on equity 7.9%
Free cash flow −55.3M TWD FY2025
P/E ratio 23.6
More key figures
Operating margin 36.0%
EPS (TTM) 1.13 TWD
EPS growth (YoY) -3.7%
Net debt 4.5B TWD FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics and warehousing services in Taiwan. It operates through Sales and Logistics segments.

Full company description

Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics and warehousing services in Taiwan. It operates through Sales and Logistics segments. The company offers leasing and tallying services; and specialized picking centers, packaging and processing centers, refrigerated and low-temperature warehousing, and document-based warehousing and distribution. It also engages in the trading, bidding, and agency business of various raw cotton materials, cloth products, and other commodities; and spinning of yarn products. The company was formerly known as Lily Textile Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd. in July 2022. Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Taoyuan City, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lily Logistics Development Co reported revenue of 980M TWD in FY2025 versus 867M TWD in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 153M TWD in FY2025, compounding −8.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 51/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
980M TWD
Latest YoY
+6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.5%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.1%
Revenue +3.1%/yr
FY21 867M TWD
FY22 848M TWD
FY23 781M TWD
FY24 924M TWD
FY25 980M TWD
Net income −8.9%/yr
FY21 222M TWD
FY22 143M TWD
FY23 175M TWD
FY24 246M TWD
FY25 153M TWD

1443 screens 55% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lily Logistics Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1443

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −55% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.31× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.57× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.80× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 14.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 46
FUTURE 0 · sector 8
PAST 32 · sector 26
HEALTH 34 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 56

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $117.72 $104.58 -11%
FedEx Corporation FDX $314.69 $347.68 +10%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.22 €53.18 -7%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,660 kr 712.57 -57%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 209.90 CHF 147.92 -30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $291.41 $133.80 -54%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥31.91 ¥48.64 +52%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $193.50 $86.56 -55%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $172.02 $115.95 -33%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$181.40 HK$241.93 +33%

Compare Lily Logistics Development Co with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Industrials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Lily Logistics Development Co (1443) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.72 TWD versus a price of 26.05 TWD, about −55% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1443?
Our model-based fair value for Lily Logistics Development Co is 11.72 TWD (as of Jul 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 26.05 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1443?
Lily Logistics Development Co has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Lily Logistics Development Co (1443)?
Lily Logistics Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 951M TWD (latest available figure, as of Jul 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1443?
The net profit margin of Lily Logistics Development Co is about 15.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Lily Logistics Development Co and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.