Lily Logistics Development Co (1443) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TW · Market cap 3.6B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −0.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (22.95 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (11.72 TWD to 22.95 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.80 TWD – 35.50 TWD · fair‑value band 11.72 TWD – 22.95 TWD · the 26.05 TWD price screens above the 11.72 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Lily Logistics Development Co (1443) currently trades at 26.05 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.72 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 55.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lily Logistics Development Co generated revenue of 951M TWD at a net margin of 15.7%. Revenue declined 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 4.5B TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 11.72 TWD (bear case) to 22.95 TWD (bull case); at 26.05 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -55%, 1443 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (20.49 TWD) versus Earnings-Based (2.56 TWD). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics and warehousing services in Taiwan. It operates through Sales and Logistics segments.
Full company description
Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics and warehousing services in Taiwan. It operates through Sales and Logistics segments. The company offers leasing and tallying services; and specialized picking centers, packaging and processing centers, refrigerated and low-temperature warehousing, and document-based warehousing and distribution. It also engages in the trading, bidding, and agency business of various raw cotton materials, cloth products, and other commodities; and spinning of yarn products. The company was formerly known as Lily Textile Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd. in July 2022. Lily Logistics Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lily Logistics Development Co reported revenue of 980M TWD in FY2025 versus 867M TWD in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 153M TWD in FY2025, compounding −8.9%/yr from FY2021.
1443 screens 55% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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