Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd (1581) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$120M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Below-average quality, screening 171% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.6300). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0505 – HK$0.4400 · fair‑value band HK$0.6300 – HK$1.04 · the HK$0.3100 price screens below the HK$0.8400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd (1581) currently trades at HK$0.3100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.8400, implying the stock looks roughly 171.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$793M at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue declined 25.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at HK$66.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.6300 (bear case) to HK$1.04 (bull case); at HK$0.3100, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -18% fair-value upside, at 171%, 1581 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.18) versus Economic Profit (HK$0.2600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when 1581 reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Progressive Path Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the construction business in Hong Kong. The company operates through Construction Works and Construction Machinery Rental segments. It undertakes various construction projects, including the foundation and site formation, builders, and general building works.
Full company description
Progressive Path Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the construction business in Hong Kong. The company operates through Construction Works and Construction Machinery Rental segments. It undertakes various construction projects, including the foundation and site formation, builders, and general building works. The company also provides rental of construction machineries and vehicles; machine operators and transportation services; and management services. It serves construction work companies operating in public and/or private construction projects. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Tuen Mun, Hong Kong. Progressive Path Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Profit Gold Global Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$841M in FY2026 versus HK$516M in FY2022, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$20.4M in FY2026, compounding +13.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +7.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −7.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 1581: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Rental & Leasing Services · 98 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Rentals, Inc URI | $1,129 | $449.86 | -60% |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB | $80.55 | $65.76 | -18% |
| AerCap Holdings AER | $150.25 | $301.51 | +101% |
| Ryder System, Inc R | $262.96 | $109.71 | -58% |
| Ayvens AYV | €11.68 | €25.90 | +122% |
| Localiza Rent a Car S.A RENT3 | R$34.71 | R$37.01 | +7% |
| Element Fleet Management Corp EFN | C$27.95 | C$15.06 | -46% |
| BOC Aviation Limited 2588 | HK$74.40 | HK$18.61 | -75% |
| GATX Corporation GATX | $177.56 | $140.90 | -21% |
| Avis Budget Group CAR | $139.58 | $158.11 | +13% |
Compare Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd (1581) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 1581?
What is the quality score of 1581?
What is the revenue of Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd (1581)?
What is the net profit margin of 1581?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Progressive Path Group Holdings Ltd and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.