China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$18.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +3.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 103% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.7138 – HK$2.13 · fair‑value band HK$2.13 – HK$3.55 · the HK$1.40 price screens below the HK$2.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) currently trades at HK$1.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.84, implying the stock looks roughly 102.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co generated revenue of HK$16.6B at a net margin of 30.3%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at HK$304B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.13 (bear case) to HK$3.55 (bull case); at HK$1.40, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -18% fair-value upside, at 103%, 1606 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (HK$4.95) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.40). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. engages in the leasing business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through the Aircraft Leasing, Ship Leasing, Energy Leasing, High-end Equipment Leasing, and Inclusive Finance segments. The Aircraft Leasing segment is involved in purchasing, leasing, management, and sale of commercial aircraft.
Full company description
China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. engages in the leasing business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through the Aircraft Leasing, Ship Leasing, Energy Leasing, High-end Equipment Leasing, and Inclusive Finance segments. The Aircraft Leasing segment is involved in purchasing, leasing, management, and sale of commercial aircraft. The Ship Leasing segment engages in ship leasing business. The Energy Leasing segment is involved in energy leasing business. The High-end Equipment Leasing segment engages in high-end equipment leasing business. The Inclusive Finance segment is involved in vehicle, construction machinery, and agricultural machinery leasing business. The company was formerly known as CDB Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. in September 2015. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Development Bank.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co reported revenue of HK$26.6B in FY2025 versus HK$12.2B in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$4.9B in FY2025, compounding +5.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Rental & Leasing Services · 98 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Rentals, Inc URI | $1,129 | $449.86 | -60% |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB | $80.55 | $65.76 | -18% |
| AerCap Holdings AER | $150.25 | $301.51 | +101% |
| Ryder System, Inc R | $262.96 | $109.71 | -58% |
| Ayvens AYV | €11.68 | €25.90 | +122% |
| Localiza Rent a Car S.A RENT3 | R$34.71 | R$37.01 | +7% |
| Element Fleet Management Corp EFN | C$27.95 | C$15.06 | -46% |
| BOC Aviation Limited 2588 | HK$74.40 | HK$18.61 | -75% |
| GATX Corporation GATX | $177.56 | $140.90 | -21% |
| Avis Budget Group CAR | $139.58 | $158.11 | +13% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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