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China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co HK$3.03, price HK$1.52, upside +100.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE1000027C9

CD Thin data Oct 1, 2026

China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co

1606 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$3.03 · Strongly undervalued (+100.0%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +19.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!6.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
✓Wide moat 71/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 27 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$2.13 HK$0.7138 Fair Value HK$3.03 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.7138 – HK$2.13 · fair‑value band HK$1.84 – HK$3.79 · the HK$1.52 price screens below the HK$3.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. engages in the leasing business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through the Aircraft Leasing, Ship Leasing, Energy Leasing, High-end Equipment Leasing, and Inclusive Finance segments. The Aircraft Leasing segment is involved in purchasing, leasing, management, and sale of commercial aircraft.

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China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. engages in the leasing business in the People's Republic of China. It operates through the Aircraft Leasing, Ship Leasing, Energy Leasing, High-end Equipment Leasing, and Inclusive Finance segments. The Aircraft Leasing segment is involved in purchasing, leasing, management, and sale of commercial aircraft. The Ship Leasing segment engages in ship leasing business. The Energy Leasing segment is involved in energy leasing business. The High-end Equipment Leasing segment engages in high-end equipment leasing business. The Inclusive Finance segment is involved in vehicle, construction machinery, and agricultural machinery leasing business. The company was formerly known as CDB Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. in September 2015. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Development Bank.

Stock analysis

China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) currently trades at HK$1.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.03, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$5.79 per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$1.52 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.53, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.84 (bear) to HK$3.79 (bull), the price of HK$1.52 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co reported revenue of 26.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 12.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was 4.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$19.2B (≈ $2.4B) · P/E ratio 3.0 · P/S ratio 0.55 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 43.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 100%, 1606 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.84 Fair Value HK$3.03 Bull HK$3.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$3.63 HK$4.10 HK$5.52 76
Gordon GGM HK$0.8900 HK$1.77 HK$2.68 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.8900 HK$1.53 HK$1.87 67
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.08 HK$15.08 HK$20.79 64
Lynch FV HK$4.05 HK$5.79 HK$7.52 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.8900 HK$1.77 HK$2.68 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.8900 HK$1.53 HK$1.87 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$4.42 HK$5.89 HK$7.36 63
P/B Multiple HK$4.27 HK$5.69 HK$7.12 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.03 HK$2.72 HK$4.07 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.63 HK$4.10 HK$5.52 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.4% vs 12.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.96% → 54%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 92 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +100.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.7% · Above median
Return on assets 1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 32.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 43.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.20× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.96× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 74
FUTURE (revenue growth)27 · sector 28
PAST (return on equity)51 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 65
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Rentals, Inc URI $1,044 $441.48 −58%
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB $75.06 $65.76 −12%
AerCap Holdings AER $149.21 $208.22 +40%
U-Haul Holding UHAL $60.88 $7.57 −88%
Ryder System, Inc R $233.93 $151.59 −35%
Element Fleet Management Corp EFN C$23.85 C$21.30 −11%
GATX Corporation GATX $175.86 $129.05 −27%
BOC Aviation Limited 2588 HK$71.00 HK$146.00 +106%
EquipmentShare.com Inc EQPT $17.35 $3.89 −78%
Bohai Leasing Co 000415 ¥4.11 ¥8.22 +100%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1606

Frequently asked questions

Is China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.03 versus a price of HK$1.52, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1606?
Our model-based fair value for China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is HK$3.03 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.52.
What is the quality score of 1606?
China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.03 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.84, optimistic scenario HK$3.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.03, about +100% upside versus a price of HK$1.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.84, optimistic scenario HK$3.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co pay a dividend?
China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.53% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co it is HK$3.03 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$1.52. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1606 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.52, fair value HK$3.03, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1606?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.03). For China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co the two are HK$1.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co worth?
The market values China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co at about HK$19.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.52; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1606?
Our models span a range for China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co: cautious scenario HK$1.84, base HK$3.03, optimistic HK$3.79 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$1.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1606?
China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 2.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1606 from its 52-week high?
China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co trades at HK$1.52, about 16% below its 52-week high of HK$1.81 and 17% above the low of HK$1.30 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$1.52, calculated fair value HK$3.03 (+100%), Quality Score 40/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1606 calculated?
We run China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.52. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.03, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.84 to HK$3.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) come from?
Earnings per share at China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co grew +14.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.1 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co

How large is the market capitalisation of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
The market capitalisation of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is HK$19.2B (≈ $2.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is 0.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
The dividend yield of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is 6.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
The net margin of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is 18.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
The operating margin of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is 43.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
Revenue at China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606)?
Earnings per share at China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co are growing +21.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) generate?
The free cash flow of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is −12.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co (1606) carry?
The net debt of China Dvlp Bk Finl Leasing Co is 304B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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