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Stella International Holdings Ltd (1836) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$10.6B

SI Stella International Holdings Ltd 1836 · HK
PriceHK$14.12
Fair ValueHK$2.81
Upside-80.1%
Quality61/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 8.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.92% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Narrow moat 44/100
Evidence: High Range HK$2.07 – HK$3.67 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +12.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$3.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$17.47 HK$5.05 Fair Value HK$2.81 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.05 – HK$17.47 · fair‑value band HK$2.07 – HK$3.67 · the HK$14.12 price screens above the HK$2.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Stella International Holdings Ltd (1836) currently trades at HK$14.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.81, implying the stock looks roughly 80.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Stella International Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.6B at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$357M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.07 (bear case) to HK$3.67 (bull case); at HK$14.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -80%, 1836 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.90 HK$2.41 HK$3.23 80
Residual Income HK$1.23 HK$1.44 HK$2.38 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.88 HK$2.59 HK$3.42 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.85 HK$2.38 HK$3.28 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.69 HK$2.16 HK$2.96 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.88 HK$2.57 HK$3.51 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.16 HK$3.05 HK$4.16 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.44 HK$3.53 HK$4.74 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.81 HK$2.42 HK$3.12 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.03 HK$2.74 HK$3.56 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.20 HK$3.05 HK$3.96 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.12 HK$2.06 HK$2.55 54
EPV HK$1.86 HK$2.09 HK$2.30 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.85 HK$2.47 HK$3.09 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.85 HK$2.54 HK$3.37 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.71 HK$3.61 HK$4.51 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.68 HK$2.24 HK$2.80 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.09 HK$2.79 HK$3.49 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.83 HK$3.63 HK$4.43 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.64 HK$3.37 HK$4.10 54
EV/Revenue HK$2.01 HK$2.68 HK$3.35 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6500 HK$0.8700 HK$1.30 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.90 HK$2.41 HK$3.23 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.88 HK$2.59 HK$3.42 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.23 HK$1.44 HK$2.38 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.89 HK$2.18 HK$2.48 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.92 HK$2.74 HK$3.56 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$2.79) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.8700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.6%
Net margin 8.8%
Return on equity 12.3%
Free cash flow HK$116M FY2025
P/E ratio 9.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 8.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0900
Dividend yield 0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -26.2%
Net cash HK$357M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 59
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Stella International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in development, manufacture, and sale of footwear products and leather goods in North America, the People's Republic of China, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Retailing and Wholesaling.

Full company description

Stella International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in development, manufacture, and sale of footwear products and leather goods in North America, the People's Republic of China, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Retailing and Wholesaling. It also involved in the holding of intellectual property rights; provision of marketing, secretary, and accounting services; and footwear retailing business. In addition, the company manufactures and sells handbags. It offers its products under the Stella Luna brand. Stella International Holdings Limited was founded in 1982 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Stella International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.6B in FY2025 versus HK$1.5B in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$138M in FY2025, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.6B
Latest YoY
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Revenue +0.5%/yr
FY21 HK$1.5B
FY22 HK$1.6B
FY23 HK$1.5B
FY24 HK$1.5B
FY25 HK$1.6B
Net income +11.4%/yr
FY21 HK$89.7M
FY22 HK$118M
FY23 HK$141M
FY24 HK$171M
FY25 HK$138M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share −1.3 pp

of which total revenue −0.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp

EBIT margin +6.9 pp
Tax rate −0.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1836 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →

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Stella International Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$2.81 −80%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Stella International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1836

Peer Group

Footwear & Accessories · 93 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.86× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 11.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 2.16× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 13
FUTURE 13 · sector 0
PAST 49 · sector 23
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 18 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NIKE, Inc NKE $40.51 $35.63 -12%
adidas AG 1ADS €158.15 €65.71 -58%
Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK $93.84 $125.16 +33%
On Holding ONON $30.91 $17.53 -43%
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 ¥11.81 ¥13.03 +10%
Birkenstock Holding BIRK $36.74 $44.59 +21%
Crocs, Inc CROX $130.61 $203.65 +56%
Huali Industrial Group 300979 ¥36.73 ¥51.36 +40%
PUMA SE PUM €26.69 €10.57 -60%
Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 HK$13.64 HK$4.04 -70%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Stella International Holdings Ltd (1836) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.81 versus a price of HK$14.12, about −80% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1836?
Our model-based fair value for Stella International Holdings Ltd is HK$2.81 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$14.12.
What is the quality score of 1836?
Stella International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Stella International Holdings Ltd (1836)?
Stella International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1836?
The net profit margin of Stella International Holdings Ltd is about 8.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Stella International Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Stella International Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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