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Alcoa Corporation (185) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alcoa Corporation €46.48, price €37.39, upside +24.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Alcoa Corporation
185 · XETRASpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value €46.48 · Undervalued (+24.3%)
!Quality 45/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.1% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 52/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €19.62 – €83.00 · fair‑value band €28.60 – €68.92 · the €37.39 price screens below the €46.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum.
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Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Alcoa Corporation (185) currently trades at €37.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €46.48, implying the stock looks roughly 19.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €70.86 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the €37.39 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €4.88, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €28.60 (bear) to €68.92 (bull), the price of €37.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alcoa Corporation reported revenue of $12.8B in FY2025 versus $12.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +28.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €11.2B · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) €3.42 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 48% fair-value upside, at 24%, 185 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €28.60
Fair Value €46.48
Bull €68.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.28 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€22.91
€34.67
€51.60
80
Growth DCF
€23.62
€34.48
€49.40
78
Owner Earnings
€44.90
€66.75
€98.18
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€22.91
€34.67
€51.60
80
Owner Earnings
€44.90
€66.75
€98.18
76
5Y Revenue Exit
€28.31
€46.37
€68.85
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
€38.26
€64.19
€93.47
74
5Y P/E Exit
€42.94
€72.58
€102.45
70
10Y Revenue Exit
€25.00
€40.80
€60.76
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
€32.29
€52.89
€78.81
67
10Y P/E Exit
€35.23
€58.58
€85.39
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€26.78
€65.55
€84.81
65
PEG = 1.0
€11.75
€16.78
€21.81
57
EPV
€33.21
€39.20
€44.44
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€3.25
€5.91
€9.42
66
DDM Multi-Stage
€3.25
€4.88
€6.66
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€64.99
€86.65
€108.31
63
P/S Multiple
€38.87
€51.83
€64.79
58
P/B Multiple
€50.22
€66.96
€83.70
55
EV/EBIT
€53.88
€72.75
€91.63
66
EV/EBITDA
€53.88
€72.75
€91.63
67
EV/Revenue
€33.54
€49.09
€64.64
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€10.32
€13.83
€20.65
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€23.62
€34.48
€49.40
78
Rev-Margin DCF
€28.31
€46.49
€66.08
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€24.55
€30.29
€44.63
75
ROIC Compounder
€34.73
€43.61
€53.58
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€49.60
€70.86
€92.11
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Profitability
48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
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’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 10%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 1,378% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.5% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+15.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥16.11 | ¥43.06 | +167% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$21.16 | HK$57.03 | +170% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.88 | ¥12.04 | +36% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹977.00 | ₹1,026 | +5% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 80.10 | kr 58.10 | −27% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.46 MYR | 8.21 MYR | +10% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥26.03 | ¥38.55 | +48% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.72 | ¥32.01 | +24% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥12.11 | ¥35.21 | +191% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.61 | ¥7.57 | +64% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Alcoa Corporation (185) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €46.48 versus a price of €37.39, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 185?
Our model-based fair value for Alcoa Corporation is €46.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €37.39.
What is the quality score of 185?
Alcoa Corporation has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alcoa Corporation (185)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €46.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €28.60, optimistic scenario €68.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alcoa Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €46.48, about +24% upside versus a price of €37.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €28.60, optimistic scenario €68.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
Alcoa Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Alcoa Corporation pay a dividend?
Alcoa Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alcoa Corporation (185)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alcoa Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 185 use?
Our models discount Alcoa Corporation at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.63, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alcoa Corporation that is +12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alcoa Corporation (185) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alcoa Corporation grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alcoa Corporation (185) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alcoa Corporation (+12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.16 %: that much free cash flow Alcoa Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alcoa Corporation it is €46.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €37.39. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alcoa Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 185 trades below its calculated fair value: price €37.39, fair value €46.48, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 185?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€37.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€46.48). For Alcoa Corporation the two are €9.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alcoa Corporation worth?
The market values Alcoa Corporation at about €11.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €37.39; our models calculate a fair value of €46.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 185?
Our models span a range for Alcoa Corporation: cautious scenario €28.60, base €46.48, optimistic €68.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €37.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 185 from its 52-week high?
Alcoa Corporation trades at €37.39, about 47% below its 52-week high of €71.00 and 28% above the low of €29.11 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €46.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alcoa Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Aluminum Corporation, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alcoa Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €37.39, calculated fair value €46.48 (+24%), Quality Score 45/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 185 calculated?
We run Alcoa Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €46.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alcoa Corporation currently trades 20 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €37.39. Our model-based fair value is €46.48, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alcoa Corporation right now?
Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€28.60 to €68.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alcoa Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The market capitalisation of Alcoa Corporation is €11.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Alcoa Corporation is 10.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alcoa Corporation is 1.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
Earnings per share at Alcoa Corporation are €3.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The dividend yield of Alcoa Corporation is 1.1% (payout 11.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The net margin of Alcoa Corporation is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alcoa Corporation is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alcoa Corporation is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alcoa Corporation (185)?
The operating margin of Alcoa Corporation is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alcoa Corporation (185)?
Revenue at Alcoa Corporation is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alcoa Corporation (185)?
Earnings per share at Alcoa Corporation are growing −22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alcoa Corporation (185) carry?
The net debt of Alcoa Corporation is $817M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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