Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · TW · Market cap 12.9B TWD

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

• The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
• A fairly wide model range (4.88 TWD to 10.60 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8.28 TWD – 30.11 TWD · fair‑value band 4.88 TWD – 10.60 TWD · the 10.60 TWD price screens below the 10.60 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) currently trades at 10.60 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.60 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 0.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Long Chen Paper Co Ltd generated revenue of 45.2B TWD at a net margin of -0.9%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.0%. Net debt stands at 40.3B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4.88 TWD (bear case) to 10.60 TWD (bull case); at 10.60 TWD, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 0%, 1909 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (10.46 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (3.82 TWD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes, and trade of papermaking raw materials in Taiwan and Mainland China.

Full company description

Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes, and trade of papermaking raw materials in Taiwan and Mainland China. The company engages in the manufacture, printing, processing, and sales of cartons, cardboard boxes and paper products; and recycling and renewal of energy and resources, as well as regeneration businesses, including cogeneration and incinerator turnkey projects. It is also involved in the purchase and sales of wastepaper, as well as wholesale, import, and export of packaging materials, paper products, electronic products, hardware, papermaking equipment, accessories, and materials. In addition, it manufactures, processes, and sells paper, paperboard, paper products, novel packaging materials, cartons and paper boxes, and package printed products, as well as containerboard paper, cogeneration products, and warehousing. Further, the company is involved in general investment; sewage treatment; renewable resource utilization technology research and development; and information technology consulting businesses. Additionally, it engages in printing for packaging, decoration, and color-printed paper cartons; and manufacture and sale of cartons, pearl wool, and foam. The company was formerly known as Long Chen Paper Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. in June 2019. Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Long Chen Paper Co Ltd reported revenue of 44.7B TWD in FY2025 versus 56.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was −517M TWD in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.