Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd TWD 16.48, price TWD 10.30, upside +60.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes, and trade of papermaking raw materials in Taiwan and Mainland China.
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Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes, and trade of papermaking raw materials in Taiwan and Mainland China. The company engages in the manufacture, printing, processing, and sales of cartons, cardboard boxes and paper products; and recycling and renewal of energy and resources, as well as regeneration businesses, including cogeneration and incinerator turnkey projects. It is also involved in the purchase and sales of wastepaper, as well as wholesale, import, and export of packaging materials, paper products, electronic products, hardware, papermaking equipment, accessories, and materials. In addition, it manufactures, processes, and sells paper, paperboard, paper products, novel packaging materials, cartons and paper boxes, and package printed products, as well as containerboard paper, cogeneration products, and warehousing. Further, the company is involved in general investment; sewage treatment; renewable resource utilization technology research and development; and information technology consulting businesses. Additionally, it engages in printing for packaging, decoration, and color-printed paper cartons; and manufacture and sale of cartons, pearl wool, and foam. The company was formerly known as Long Chen Paper Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. in June 2019. Longchen Paper & Packaging Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) currently trades at 10.30 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.48 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 10 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 12.31 TWD (bear) to 16.48 TWD (bull), the price of 10.30 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Long Chen Paper Co Ltd reported revenue of 44.7B TWD in FY2025 versus 56.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was −517M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 13.6B TWD (≈ $425M) · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) −0.3900 TWD · Net margin −1.2% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 0.2% · Revenue (TTM) 45.2B TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 60%, 1909 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.31 TWDFair Value 16.48 TWDBull 16.48 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.3% (2020) → 0.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+64.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +62.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Long Chen Paper Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1909
Frequently asked questions
Is Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.48 TWD versus a price of 10.30 TWD, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1909?
Our model-based fair value for Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is 16.48 TWD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 10.30 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1909?
Long Chen Paper Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.48 TWD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.31 TWD, optimistic scenario 16.48 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Long Chen Paper Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.48 TWD, about +60% upside versus a price of 10.30 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12.31 TWD, optimistic scenario 16.48 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
Long Chen Paper Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 45.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Long Chen Paper Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +64.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1909 use?
Our models discount Long Chen Paper Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Long Chen Paper Co Ltd that is +64.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Long Chen Paper Co Ltd grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies +64.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (+64.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.48 %: that much free cash flow Long Chen Paper Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Long Chen Paper Co Ltd it is 16.48 TWD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 10.30 TWD. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Long Chen Paper Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1909 trades below its calculated fair value: price 10.30 TWD, fair value 16.48 TWD, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1909?
No. The price is what the market pays today (10.30 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.48 TWD). For Long Chen Paper Co Ltd the two are 6.18 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Long Chen Paper Co Ltd worth?
The market values Long Chen Paper Co Ltd at about 13.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 10.30 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.48 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1909?
Our models span a range for Long Chen Paper Co Ltd: cautious scenario 12.31 TWD, base 16.48 TWD, optimistic 16.48 TWD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 10.30 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
Balance-sheet figures for Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −2.0%, debt of 1.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1909 from its 52-week high?
Long Chen Paper Co Ltd trades at 10.30 TWD, about 10% below its 52-week high of 11.45 TWD and 16% above the low of 8.90 TWD (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.48 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Long Chen Paper Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Long Chen Paper Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 10.30 TWD, calculated fair value 16.48 TWD (+60%), Quality Score 37/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1909 calculated?
We run Long Chen Paper Co Ltd through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.48 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Long Chen Paper Co Ltd currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was 10.30 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.48 TWD, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Long Chen Paper Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (12.31 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
The market capitalisation of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is 13.6B TWD (≈ $425M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is 0.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
Earnings per share at Long Chen Paper Co Ltd are −0.3900 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
The net margin of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is −1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
The operating margin of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
Revenue at Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909)?
Earnings per share at Long Chen Paper Co Ltd are growing −68.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Long Chen Paper Co Ltd (1909) carry?
The net debt of Long Chen Paper Co Ltd is 40.3B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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