Prada SpA (1913) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Prada SpA HK$62.43, price HK$37.48, upside +66.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Prada SpA
1913 · HKClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$31.47 – HK$65.57 · fair‑value band HK$42.08 – HK$81.81 · the HK$37.48 price screens below the HK$62.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands.
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Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands. It also operates in food sector under the Marchesi 1824 brand; sailing races business under Luna Rossa brand name; eyewear and fragrances sector under licensing agreements. The company sells its products through a network of owned operated stores, e-commerce channels, department stores, independent retailers, and e-tailers. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Prada S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Prada Holding S.P.A.
Stock analysis
Prada SpA (1913) currently trades at HK$37.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$62.43, implying the stock looks roughly 40.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$67.51 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$37.48 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$10.77, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$42.08 (bear) to HK$81.81 (bull), the price of HK$37.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Prada SpA reported revenue of €5.7B in FY2025 versus €3.4B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was €852M in FY2025, compounding +30.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$95.9B (≈ $12.2B) · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 2.08 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity 18.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% · Operating margin 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 67%, 1913 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Earlier news
- Prada Joins Vitkac as Luxury Retailer Expands Its Global Designer Portfolio
- Prada (SEHK:1913) Stock Looks Undervalued On Cash Flow But Overvalued On Earnings
- Prada (SEHK:1913) And The Case For An Undervalued Growth Story
Compare Prada SpA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 122 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hermès International Société en commandite par actions RMS | €1,348 | €1,482 | +10% |
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 171.40 | CHF 120.51 | −30% |
| Christian Dior SE CDI | €416.00 | €552.53 | +33% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $113.88 | $109.95 | −3% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$10.97 | HK$11.97 | +9% |
| The Swatch Group UHRN | CHF 35.70 | CHF 21.74 | −39% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 836.20 | kr 1,424 | +70% |
| Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC | €80.80 | €34.95 | −57% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹573.00 | ₹184.73 | −68% |
| Signet Jewelers Limited SIG | $102.26 | $330.87 | +224% |
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