Data-driven stock valuation

Prada SpA (1913) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Prada SpA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

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Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$98.5B (≈ $12.6B) · ISIN IT0003874101

At a glance

PS Prada SpA 1913 · HK

PriceHK$38.50

Fair ValueHK$64.71

Upside+68.1%

Quality62/100

A solid business, trading 41% below our fair value of HK$64.71.

As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Prada SpA is HK$64.71 per share against a price of HK$38.50, so the fair value sits 68% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.7 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 14.9% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

·0.43% dividend yield

!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)

✓Wide moat 69/100

!Weak on future: 17 out of 100

!Weak on dividend: 9 out of 100

Evidence: High Range HK$41.48 to HK$83.66

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from HK$64.07 to HK$64.71 (+1.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −11.7% over the past month.

This is the short version. In the app for Prada SpA:

26 models, one by oneBear HK$41.48 to bull HK$83.66 5-year chart + forecastprice, fair value, trend, scenarios Quality 62/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$41.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range (HK$41.48 to HK$83.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$31.47 – HK$65.57 · fair‑value band HK$41.48 – HK$83.66 · the HK$38.50 price screens below the HK$64.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Prada SpA (1913) currently trades at HK$38.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$64.71, implying the stock looks roughly 40.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$7.22 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$38.50 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at HK$6.54, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Prada SpA generated revenue of HK$5.7B at a net margin of 14.9%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at HK$3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Scenario range: HK$41.48 (bear) to HK$83.66 (bull), the price of HK$38.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 68%, 1913 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$1.22 to HK$9.81). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$4.49 HK$7.08 HK$11.08 79

Growth DCF HK$4.56 HK$6.84 HK$10.13 78

Owner Earnings HK$4.69 HK$7.40 HK$11.57 75

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$4.49 HK$7.08 HK$11.08 79

Owner Earnings HK$4.69 HK$7.40 HK$11.57 75

5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.72 HK$3.95 HK$5.48 73

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.82 HK$9.81 HK$14.49 74

5Y P/E Exit HK$4.75 HK$7.79 HK$10.99 70

10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.26 HK$4.54 HK$6.20 67

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.30 HK$8.62 HK$13.13 67

10Y P/E Exit HK$4.62 HK$7.22 HK$10.43 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$2.26 HK$7.32 HK$9.78 64

Lynch FV HK$1.63 HK$2.33 HK$3.03 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$1.63 HK$2.33 HK$3.03 57

EPV HK$3.54 HK$4.13 HK$4.64 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$1.45 HK$3.01 HK$4.78 66

DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.45 HK$2.44 HK$3.16 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$5.49 HK$7.32 HK$9.16 63

P/S Multiple HK$2.01 HK$2.68 HK$3.35 58

P/B Multiple HK$4.24 HK$5.66 HK$7.07 55

EV/EBIT HK$6.84 HK$9.13 HK$11.41 66

EV/EBITDA HK$7.32 HK$9.76 HK$12.20 67

EV/Revenue HK$1.87 HK$2.67 HK$3.48 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9100 HK$1.22 HK$1.81 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$4.56 HK$6.84 HK$10.13 78

Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.72 HK$4.00 HK$5.51 73

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$2.15 HK$2.74 HK$7.99 66

ROIC Compounder HK$3.81 HK$4.84 HK$6.06 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.58 HK$6.54 HK$8.51 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$7.22) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.22). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 13.0 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 1.93 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.1500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0

Dividend yield 0.4% payout 111%

Net margin 14.9% FY2025

Return on equity 19.0% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% avg 5y

Operating margin 22.8% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$5.7B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +3.3% 3y avg +10.8%

EPS growth (YoY) +2.3%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$1.0B FY2025

Net debt HK$3.6B FY2025 · ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 59

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 24

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 77

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 75

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 44

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 65

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 40

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 26

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands.

Full company description

Prada S.p.A. produces and distributes leather goods, footwear, and ready-to-wear products worldwide. The company offers its products under the Prada, Miu Miu, Church's, Car Shoe, and Versace brands. It also operates in food sector under the Marchesi 1824 brand; sailing races business under Luna Rossa brand name; eyewear and fragrances sector under licensing agreements. The company sells its products through a network of owned operated stores, e-commerce channels, department stores, independent retailers, and e-tailers. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Prada S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Prada Holding S.P.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Prada SpA reported revenue of €5.7B in FY2025 versus €3.4B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was €852M in FY2025, compounding +30.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$5.7B

Latest YoY

+5.3%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+10.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+18.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+7.6%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+25.8%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+25.4%

Dividend yield0.4%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 25.4% vs 10Y 9.9%, picking up

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0.8% (2020) → 22.7% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop121% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

Revenue +14.2%/yr

FY21 €3.4B

FY22 €4.2B

FY23 €4.7B

FY24 €5.4B

FY25 €5.7B

Net income +30.4%/yr

FY21 €294M

FY22 €465M

FY23 €671M

FY24 €839M

FY25 €852M

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +9.3 % p.a.

Revenue per share +4.9 %

of which total revenue +4.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +4.2 %

Tax rate +0.3 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Prada SpA · Fair Value
HK$64.71 +41%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1913" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Prada SpA · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$64.71</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+41%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Prada SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1913

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Prada (SEHK:1913) Stock Looks Undervalued On Cash Flow But Overvalued On Earnings Yahoo Finance · Aug 18, 2026
Prada (SEHK:1913) And The Case For An Undervalued Growth Story Yahoo Finance · Aug 18, 2026

Peer Group

Luxury Goods · 133 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation

Quality Score 62 · Above median

Fair Value upside +65% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Above median

Return on assets 8% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 3% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.28× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.0× · Cheaper than median

P/B 2.71× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 2.20× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 12.6× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 8.0× · Cheaper than median

PEG 2.14× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Prada SpA deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+28.5 % per year

Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+18.7 % p.a.

Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %

FCF yield on price1.02 %

Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.3 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE100 · sector 9

FUTURE17 · sector 48

PAST76 · sector 40

HEALTH86 · sector 99

DIVIDEND9 · sector 43

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

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Tapestry, Inc TPR	$153.74	$19.95	−87%
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Pandora A/S PNDORA	kr 783.00	kr 1,424	+82%
Laopu Gold Co 6181	HK$385.00	HK$654.83	+70%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Prada SpA (1913) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$64.71 versus a price of HK$38.50, about +68% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 1913?

Our model-based fair value for Prada SpA is HK$64.71 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$38.50.

What is the quality score of 1913?

Prada SpA has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Prada SpA (1913)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$64.71 (as of Aug 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$41.48, optimistic scenario HK$83.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Prada SpA stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$64.71, about +68% upside versus a price of HK$38.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$41.48, optimistic scenario HK$83.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Prada SpA (1913)?

Prada SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1913?

The net profit margin of Prada SpA is about 14.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Prada SpA pay a dividend?

Prada SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 27, 2026).

What growth is priced into Prada SpA (1913)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Prada SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +28.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.7 % per year. As of Aug 27, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1913 use?

Our models discount Prada SpA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is the intrinsic value of Prada SpA (1913)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prada SpA it is HK$64.71 per share (as of Aug 27, 2026), against a price of HK$38.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Prada SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Aug 27, 2026, 1913 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$38.50, fair value HK$64.71, a gap of about +68% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 1913?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$38.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$64.71). For Prada SpA the two are HK$26.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Prada SpA worth?

The market values Prada SpA at about HK$98.5B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$38.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$64.71 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1913?

Our models span a range for Prada SpA: cautious scenario HK$41.48, base HK$64.71, optimistic HK$83.66 per share (as of Aug 27, 2026, price HK$38.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 1913?

Prada SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Aug 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$64.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.7, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 8.0.

What is the PEG ratio of 1913?

The PEG ratio of Prada SpA is 2.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Prada SpA (1913)?

Balance-sheet figures for Prada SpA (as of Aug 27, 2026): return on equity 19.0%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 1913 from its 52-week high?

Prada SpA trades at HK$38.50, about 23% below its 52-week high of HK$49.90 and 16% above the low of HK$33.12 (as of Aug 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$64.71 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Prada SpA?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Kering SA, Tapestry, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Prada SpA stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Aug 27, 2026: price HK$38.50, calculated fair value HK$64.71 (+68%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 1913 calculated?

We run Prada SpA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$64.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Prada SpA currently trades 68 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.

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