The Swatch Group (UHRN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CH · Market cap CHF 10.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from CHF 23.65 to CHF 21.48 (−9.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 27.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 24.29 – CHF 56.36 · fair‑value band CHF 17.72 – CHF 27.53 · the CHF 37.45 price screens above the CHF 21.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
The Swatch Group (UHRN) currently trades at CHF 37.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 21.48, implying the stock looks roughly 42.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Swatch Group generated revenue of CHF 6.3B at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue declined 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of CHF 972M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 17.72 (bear case) to CHF 27.53 (bull case); at CHF 37.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -4% fair-value upside, at -43%, UHRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (CHF 69.72) versus Earnings-Based (CHF 0.3121). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments.
Full company description
The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments. The Watches & Jewelry segment designs, produces, and commercializes watches and jewelry. The Electronic Systems segment engages in the design, production, and commercialization of electronic components, as well as sports timing activities. The company is also involved in the provision of assembly, research and development, administration, logistics and distribution, and customer services; and hard material components, microelectronics, watch cases and crowns, miniature low-frequency quartz crystals, thin wires, miniature batteries, watch dials and hands, bracelets, sports timing technology and equipment, precision parts, electronic components assembly, and surface treatment products. In addition, it engages in the patent, retail, communication, real estate, real estate management, finance, reinsurance, and art center businesses. The company offers its watch and jewelry products under the Breguet, Harry Winston, Blancpain, Glashütte Original, Jaquet Droz, Omega, Longines, Rado, Union Glashütte, Tissot, Balmain, Certina, Mido, Hamilton, Swatch, and Flik Flak brands. The Swatch Group AG was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Swatch Group reported revenue of CHF 6.3B in FY2025 versus CHF 7.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 3.0M in FY2025, compounding −75.0%/yr from FY2021.
UHRN screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Compagnie Financière Richemont SA →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Kepler upgrades Swatch to Buy, sees earnings recovery driving re-rating
- ISS Recommends The Swatch Group AG Shareholders Vote FOR GreenWood’s Director Nominee and Governance Proposals for the Company’s 2026 Annual
- Swatch Group's (VTX:UHR) Weak Earnings May Only Reveal A Part Of The Whole Picture
- Swatch Group (SWX:UHR): Does Protecting Capacity and the Dividend Redefine Its Investment Story?
Peer Group
Luxury Goods · 132 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 197.40 | CHF 117.30 | -41% |
| Christian Dior SE DIO | €455.40 | €502.30 | +10% |
| Kering SA KER | €248.50 | €60.61 | -76% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $140.73 | $19.95 | -86% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$11.82 | HK$12.28 | +4% |
| Prada S.p.A 1913 | HK$43.26 | HK$64.05 | +48% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 779.40 | kr 1,424 | +83% |
| Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC | €80.32 | €42.69 | -47% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹546.60 | ₹238.57 | -56% |
| LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne, LV | C$11.46 | C$11.05 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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