Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (1929) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$117B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from HK$13.19 to HK$12.28 (−6.9%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +12.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$6.26 to HK$22.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.47 – HK$16.35 · fair‑value band HK$6.26 – HK$22.64 · the HK$13.03 price screens above the HK$12.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (1929) currently trades at HK$13.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.28, implying the stock looks roughly 5.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group generated revenue of HK$89.2B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue declined 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.4%. Net debt stands at HK$20.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$6.26 (bear case) to HK$22.64 (bull case); at HK$13.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -6%, 1929 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$17.42) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.8300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names.
Full company description
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names. It also distributes watches of various brands. In addition, the company is involved in the trading of diamonds; and the provision of services to franchisees. It sells its products through online platforms, as well as stores. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is a subsidiary of Chow Tai Fook Capital Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group reported revenue of HK$94.4B in FY2026 versus HK$98.9B in FY2022, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.0B in FY2026, compounding +7.6%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +6.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 1929: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (SEHK:1929) Stock Examined After Recent Share Price Momentum And Undervaluation Debate
- Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Reports Record High Profit Brand Transformation Delivering High-quality Earnings Growth
- Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Unveils Home-Décor Line Chow Tai Fook Home, Redefining Luxury Lifestyle Experience Ahead of Global Flagship Store Gr
- o9 Selected by Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group to Optimize Data-Driven Retail Planning
Peer Group
Luxury Goods · 130 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 197.40 | CHF 117.30 | -41% |
| Christian Dior SE DIO | €455.40 | €502.30 | +10% |
| Kering SA KER | €248.50 | €60.61 | -76% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $140.73 | $19.95 | -86% |
| The Swatch Group UHRN | CHF 40.95 | CHF 21.48 | -48% |
| Prada S.p.A 1913 | HK$43.26 | HK$64.05 | +48% |
| Pandora A/S PNDORA | kr 779.40 | kr 1,424 | +83% |
| Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A BC | €80.32 | €42.69 | -47% |
| Kalyan Jewellers India Limited KALYANKJIL | ₹546.60 | ₹238.57 | -56% |
| LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne, LV | C$11.46 | C$11.05 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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