Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd HK$12.03, price HK$10.94, upside +10.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.47 – HK$16.35 · fair‑value band HK$6.33 – HK$19.45 · the HK$10.94 price screens below the HK$12.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names.
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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names. It also distributes watches of various brands. In addition, the company is involved in the trading of diamonds; and the provision of services to franchisees. It sells its products through online platforms, as well as stores. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is a subsidiary of Chow Tai Fook Capital Limited.
Stock analysis
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) currently trades at HK$10.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.03, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$17.42 per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$10.94 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.98, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$6.33 (bear) to HK$19.45 (bull), the price of HK$10.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$94.4B in FY2026 versus HK$98.9B in FY2022, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.0B in FY2026, compounding +7.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$113B (≈ $14.4B) · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.8628 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 9.5% · Return on equity 30.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at 10%, 1929 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$6.33Fair Value HK$12.03Bull HK$19.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 19%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+63.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +59.6% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 130 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Return on assets14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1929
Frequently asked questions
Is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.03 versus a price of HK$10.94, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1929?
Our model-based fair value for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is HK$12.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$10.94.
What is the quality score of 1929?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.33, optimistic scenario HK$19.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.03, about +10% upside versus a price of HK$10.94 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$6.33, optimistic scenario HK$19.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$94.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +63.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1929 use?
Our models discount Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd that is +63.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd grew +6.1 % a year. The price currently implies +63.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (+63.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.38 %: that much free cash flow Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd it is HK$12.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$10.94. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1929 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$10.94, fair value HK$12.03, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1929?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$10.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.03). For Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd the two are HK$1.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd worth?
The market values Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd at about HK$113B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$10.94; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1929?
Our models span a range for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$6.33, base HK$12.03, optimistic HK$19.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$10.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1929?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$12.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 30.6%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1929 from its 52-week high?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd trades at HK$10.94, about 33% below its 52-week high of HK$16.35 and 4% above the low of HK$10.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Tapestry, Inc, The Swatch Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$10.94, calculated fair value HK$12.03 (+10%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1929 calculated?
We run Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$10.94. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.03, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$6.33 to HK$19.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) come from?
Earnings per share at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd grew +7.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +5.2 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The market capitalisation of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is HK$113B (≈ $14.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Earnings per share at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd are HK$0.8628 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The dividend yield of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is 4.9% (payout 62.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The net margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is 9.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is 30.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
The operating margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Revenue at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929)?
Earnings per share at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd are growing +87.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd (1929) carry?
The net debt of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is HK$20.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 47.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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