Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.9B
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc
HGV · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $22.48 to $22.70 (+1.0%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −7.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($13.15 to $28.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.80 – $55.00 · fair‑value band $13.15 – $28.37 · the $45.66 price screens above the $22.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) currently trades at $45.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.70, implying the stock looks roughly 50.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc generated revenue of $4.6B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 11.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at $6.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.15 (bear case) to $28.37 (bull case); at $45.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -50%, HGV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($212.66) versus Asset-Based ($11.00). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management segments.
Full company description
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management segments. The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment market and sells the VOIs, and source VOIs through fee-for-service agreements; and provides consumer financing and services loans. The Resort Operations and Club Management segment manages and operates the clubs which provides exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs, and provides ancillary services including food and beverage, retail and spa at timeshare properties. Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was $81.0M in FY2025, compounding −17.6%/yr from FY2021.
HGV screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Turns Discounts in to Opportunity
- HGV Q2 Deep Dive: Sales Execution and Product Mix Weigh on Margins, Management Eyes Recovery
- Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Misses Q2 Expectations, Is The Pullback A Buying Opportunity?
- Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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