Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc stock $25.80, price $43.95, that is 41.3% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.80 – $55.00 · fair‑value band $12.61 – $33.54 · the $43.95 price screens above the $25.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe.
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The company operates through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management segments.
The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment market and sells the VOIs, and source VOIs through fee-for-service agreements; and provides consumer financing and services loans.
The Resort Operations and Club Management segment manages and operates the clubs which provides exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs, and provides ancillary services including food and beverage, retail and spa at timeshare properties.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock analysis
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) currently trades at $43.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.80, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $33.64 per share, and 3 of the 17 models we run sit above the $43.95 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $12.73, and 14 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.61 (bear) to $33.54 (bull), the price of $43.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was $81.0M in FY2025, compounding −17.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.7B Mid · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) $5.07 · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 28.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 27.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −41%, HGV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.61Fair Value $25.80Bull$33.54
Price $43.95 · Downside -41.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.33 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $603,099, most recently on Nov 3, 2026. Over the same period, 3 people sold shares worth $15.3M. Buying cluster
SaleCharles R. Corbin Jr.Officer3× since May 21, 2026: 113,999 shares, avg. $45.27$5.2MNov 4, 2026
BuyLeonard PotterDirector2,500 shares at $41.55$103,875Nov 3, 2026
BuyMark D WangOfficer, Director12,200 shares at $40.92$499,224Nov 2, 2026
SaleMark D WangOfficer, Director190,813 shares at $51.93$9.9MMay 28, 2026
SaleCarlos HernandezOfficer5,595 shares at $46.69$261,231May 19, 2026
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.7% vs −6.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.2% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Securitization of vacation ownership receivables enables capital recycling for new resorts and returns, but high leverage and pressures on owner credit quality limit durability.
Main risk: Pressure from owner credit quality or discretionary spending threatens the durability of cash flows from securitization of receivables.
Hilton Grand Vacations finances a large share of its vacation ownership sales and securitizes those receivables to recycle capital for new resorts and returns. A new two-year buyback authorization alongside the Waikiki opening signals ongoing expansion, yet our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the financing and securitization engine generate more durable cash flow than any pressure from owner credit quality or discretionary spending?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−41.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)27.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)54.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.85× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.69× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hilton Grand Vacations Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGV
Frequently asked questions
Is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.80 versus a price of $43.95, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HGV?
Our model-based fair value for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is $25.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.95.
What is the quality score of HGV?
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.61, optimistic scenario $33.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilton Grand Vacations Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.80, about 41% lower versus a price of $43.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.61, optimistic scenario $33.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +31.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +41.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HGV use?
Our models discount Hilton Grand Vacations Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hilton Grand Vacations Inc that is +31.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc grew +41.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +31.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (+31.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.25 %: that much free cash flow Hilton Grand Vacations Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilton Grand Vacations Inc it is $25.80 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $43.95. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HGV trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.95, fair value $25.80, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.80). For Hilton Grand Vacations Inc the two are $18.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc worth?
The market values Hilton Grand Vacations Inc at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $43.95; our models calculate a fair value of $25.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGV?
Our models span a range for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc: cautious scenario $12.61, base $25.80, optimistic $33.54 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $43.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HGV?
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.80 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 40.0 (reported for FY2025: 49.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2022, FY2024, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.3. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 28.8%, debt of 5.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGV from its 52-week high?
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc trades at $43.95, about 20% below its 52-week high of $54.69 and 29% above the low of $34.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilton Grand Vacations Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $43.95, calculated fair value $25.80 (−41%), Quality Score 55/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGV calculated?
We run Hilton Grand Vacations Inc through 19 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $25.80 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hilton Grand Vacations Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $43.95. Our model-based fair value is $25.80, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilton Grand Vacations Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($12.61 to $33.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) come from?
Earnings per share at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc grew −1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.4 %, EBIT margin −4.9 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
The market capitalisation of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is 0.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc are $5.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
The net margin of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is 28.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
The operating margin of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
Revenue at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is growing +54.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV) carry?
The net debt of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc is $6.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026