Covestro AG (1COV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Covestro AG stock €36.12, price €60.60, upside -40.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €28.85 – €60.90 · fair‑value band €17.43 – €57.39 · the €60.60 price screens above the €36.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Covestro AG supplies high-tech polymer materials and application solutions. It operates in two segments, Performance Materials, and Solutions & Specialties.
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The Performance Materials segment develops, produces, and supplies high-performance materials, such as polyurethanes and polycarbonates, and base chemicals, which include diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI), toluylene diisocyanate, long-chain polyols, and polycarbonate resins for use in furniture and wood processing, construction, automotive, and transportation industries, as well as roof structures, insulation for buildings and refrigerators, mattresses, car seats, and other applications.
The Solutions & Specialties segment comprises a range of polymer products, including polycarbonates, precursors for coatings and adhesives, MDI specialties and polyols, thermoplastic polyurethanes, specialty films, and elastomers that are used in automotive and transportation, electrical, electronics and household appliances, construction, and healthcare industries, as well as composite resins for solar panel frames, precursors for coatings and adhesives, specialty films, laptop cases, floodlights, and electric vehicle batteries.
The company markets its products through trading houses and distributors. It operates in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, the United States, Canada, and the People's Republic of China. The company was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Leverkusen, Germany.
As of December 10, 2025, Covestro AG operates as a subsidiary of XRG P.J.S.C.
Stock analysis
Covestro AG (1COV) currently trades at €60.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €36.12, 40.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €32.32 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €60.60 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at €18.03, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €17.43 (bear) to €57.39 (bull), the price of €60.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Covestro AG reported revenue of €14.2B in FY2024 versus €10.7B in FY2020, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −€266M in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap €11.4B Large · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) €−2.43 · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity −7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin 0.8% · Revenue (TTM) €13.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at −40%, 1COV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€17.43Fair Value €36.12Bull€57.39
Price €60.60 · Upside -40.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.9% (2019) → 0.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.2% a year for the price and −4.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 736 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−40.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−3.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.72× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.85× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow128.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA25.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.51× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 66
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Covestro AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1COV
Frequently asked questions
Is Covestro AG (1COV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €36.12 versus a price of €60.60, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1COV?
Our model-based fair value for Covestro AG is €36.12 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €60.60.
What is the quality score of 1COV?
Covestro AG has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Covestro AG (1COV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €36.12 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.43, optimistic scenario €57.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Covestro AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €36.12, about −40% upside versus a price of €60.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €17.43, optimistic scenario €57.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Covestro AG (1COV)?
Covestro AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €13.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Covestro AG (1COV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Covestro AG would have to grow free cash flow by +47.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1COV use?
Our models discount Covestro AG at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Covestro AG that is +47.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Covestro AG (1COV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Covestro AG grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +47.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Covestro AG (1COV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Covestro AG (+47.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Covestro AG (1COV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.78 %: that much free cash flow Covestro AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Covestro AG (1COV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Covestro AG it is €36.12 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of €60.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Covestro AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 1COV trades above its calculated fair value: price €60.60, fair value €36.12, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1COV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€60.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€36.12). For Covestro AG the two are €24.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Covestro AG worth?
The market values Covestro AG at about €11.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is €60.60; our models calculate a fair value of €36.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1COV?
Our models span a range for Covestro AG: cautious scenario €17.43, base €36.12, optimistic €57.39 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price €60.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1COV?
The PEG ratio of Covestro AG is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Covestro AG (1COV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Covestro AG (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −7.2%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1COV from its 52-week high?
Covestro AG trades at €60.60, at its 52-week high of €60.90 and 4% above the low of €58.52 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €36.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Covestro AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Givaudan SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Covestro AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price €60.60, calculated fair value €36.12 (−40%), Quality Score 47/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1COV calculated?
We run Covestro AG through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €36.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Covestro AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Covestro AG (1COV)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was €60.60. Our model-based fair value is €36.12, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Covestro AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€57.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (€17.43 to €57.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Covestro AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Covestro AG (1COV)?
The market capitalisation of Covestro AG is €11.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Covestro AG (1COV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Covestro AG is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Covestro AG (1COV)?
Earnings per share at Covestro AG are €−2.43. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Covestro AG (1COV)?
The net margin of Covestro AG is −3.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Covestro AG (1COV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Covestro AG is −7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Covestro AG (1COV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Covestro AG is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Covestro AG (1COV)?
The operating margin of Covestro AG is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Covestro AG (1COV)?
Revenue at Covestro AG is growing −12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Covestro AG (1COV)?
Earnings per share at Covestro AG are growing −76.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Covestro AG (1COV) carry?
The net debt of Covestro AG is €2.6B (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 29.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 1, 2026