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China Sunshine Paper Holdings (2002) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$863M

CS China Sunshine Paper Holdings 2002 · HK
PriceHK$1.01
Fair ValueHK$2.97
Upside+195.5%
Quality38/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$2.23 – HK$3.18 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$2.96 to HK$2.97 (+0.3%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 196% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.95 HK$0.7900 Fair Value HK$2.97 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.7900 – HK$2.95 · fair‑value band HK$2.23 – HK$3.18 · the HK$1.01 price screens below the HK$2.97 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Sunshine Paper Holdings (2002) currently trades at HK$1.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.97, implying the stock looks roughly 195.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Sunshine Paper Holdings generated revenue of HK$7.8B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at HK$3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.23 (bear case) to HK$3.18 (bull case); at HK$1.01, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 196%, 2002 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$3.12 HK$2.97 HK$2.36 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.96 HK$2.07 HK$2.16 72
Gordon GGM HK$0.3500 HK$0.6300 HK$0.8700 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.02 HK$3.71 HK$5.01 54
Lynch FV HK$0.8800 HK$1.26 HK$1.64 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.8800 HK$1.26 HK$1.64 46
EPV HK$1.96 HK$2.07 HK$2.16 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3500 HK$0.6300 HK$0.8700 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3500 HK$0.5800 HK$0.6700 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.91 HK$2.55 HK$3.19 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.91 HK$2.55 HK$3.19 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.91 HK$2.55 HK$3.19 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.25 HK$3.94 HK$4.64 53
EV/EBITDA HK$5.71 HK$7.23 HK$8.75 54
EV/Revenue HK$2.97 HK$3.75 HK$4.52 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.27 HK$3.05 HK$4.55 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.12 HK$2.97 HK$2.36 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.96 HK$2.07 HK$2.16 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.47 HK$2.10 HK$2.73 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$3.05) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.5800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$7.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.1%
Net margin 2.1%
Return on equity 3.7%
Free cash flow −HK$582M FY2025
P/E ratio 4.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 2.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0800
EPS growth (YoY) -15.2%
Net debt HK$3.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 73
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Sunshine Paper Holdings Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells paper products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through White Top Linerboard; Coated-White Top Linerboard; Core Board; Corrugated Paper; and Specialised Paper Products.

Full company description

China Sunshine Paper Holdings Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells paper products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through White Top Linerboard; Coated-White Top Linerboard; Core Board; Corrugated Paper; and Specialised Paper Products. It provides white top linerboard that is used to provide the outer facing surface of the corrugating medium; coated white top linerboards; and core boards that are used as base for various products, such as paper and yarn. The company also offers preprint products and corrugated cartons. In addition, it trades in paper products, waste materials, and recycled resources; provides transportation, package design, mechanical maintenance, data processing and storage support, and medicine packaging design services; and generates and supplies electricity and steam, as well as operates hotel. Further, the company engages in giant reed cultivation activity. China Sunshine Paper Holdings Company Limited was founded in 2000 and is based in Weifang, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Sunshine Paper Holdings reported revenue of HK$7.8B in FY2025 versus HK$8.0B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$160M in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 26/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$7.8B
Latest YoY
−3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.9%
Revenue −0.6%/yr
FY21 HK$8.0B
FY22 HK$9.5B
FY23 HK$8.4B
FY24 HK$8.0B
FY25 HK$7.8B
Net income −26.8%/yr
FY21 HK$557M
FY22 HK$206M
FY23 HK$393M
FY24 HK$280M
FY25 HK$160M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +11.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.4 pp

of which total revenue +8.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.3 pp

EBIT margin −11.0 pp
Tax rate −0.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +17.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Sunshine Paper Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2002

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +196% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.35× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.18× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 27
FUTURE 16 · sector 7
PAST 15 · sector 12
HEALTH 83 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Klabin S.A KLBN11 R$17.55 R$3.80 -78%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €23.18 €14.21 -39%
Suzano S.A SUZ $8.02 $23.77 +196%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 109.40 kr 49.40 -55%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.94 ¥17.29 +24%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 323.20 kr 217.72 -33%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$8.21 HK$8.74 +6%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,000 CLP 1,253 CLP +25%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥21.11 ¥21.06 -0%
Billerud AB BILL kr 77.60 kr 48.60 -37%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Sunshine Paper Holdings (2002) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.97 versus a price of HK$1.01, about +196% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2002?
Our model-based fair value for China Sunshine Paper Holdings is HK$2.97 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.01.
What is the quality score of 2002?
China Sunshine Paper Holdings has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Sunshine Paper Holdings (2002)?
China Sunshine Paper Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$7.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2002?
The net profit margin of China Sunshine Paper Holdings is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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