China Sunshine Paper Holdings (2002) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$863M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$2.96 to HK$2.97 (+0.3%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 196% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.7900 – HK$2.95 · fair‑value band HK$2.23 – HK$3.18 · the HK$1.01 price screens below the HK$2.97 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Sunshine Paper Holdings (2002) currently trades at HK$1.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.97, implying the stock looks roughly 195.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Sunshine Paper Holdings generated revenue of HK$7.8B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at HK$3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.23 (bear case) to HK$3.18 (bull case); at HK$1.01, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 196%, 2002 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$3.05) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.5800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Sunshine Paper Holdings Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells paper products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through White Top Linerboard; Coated-White Top Linerboard; Core Board; Corrugated Paper; and Specialised Paper Products.
Full company description
China Sunshine Paper Holdings Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells paper products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through White Top Linerboard; Coated-White Top Linerboard; Core Board; Corrugated Paper; and Specialised Paper Products. It provides white top linerboard that is used to provide the outer facing surface of the corrugating medium; coated white top linerboards; and core boards that are used as base for various products, such as paper and yarn. The company also offers preprint products and corrugated cartons. In addition, it trades in paper products, waste materials, and recycled resources; provides transportation, package design, mechanical maintenance, data processing and storage support, and medicine packaging design services; and generates and supplies electricity and steam, as well as operates hotel. Further, the company engages in giant reed cultivation activity. China Sunshine Paper Holdings Company Limited was founded in 2000 and is based in Weifang, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Sunshine Paper Holdings reported revenue of HK$7.8B in FY2025 versus HK$8.0B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$160M in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 2002: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.55 | R$3.80 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.18 | €14.21 | -39% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $8.02 | $23.77 | +196% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 109.40 | kr 49.40 | -55% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.20 | kr 217.72 | -33% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$8.21 | HK$8.74 | +6% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,000 CLP | 1,253 CLP | +25% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 77.60 | kr 48.60 | -37% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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