JD Logistics, Inc (2618) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$73.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from HK$21.29 to HK$21.43 (+0.7%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +15.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 48% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$16.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.80 – HK$47.00 · fair‑value band HK$16.07 – HK$26.79 · the HK$14.52 price screens below the HK$21.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
JD Logistics, Inc (2618) currently trades at HK$14.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$21.43, implying the stock looks roughly 47.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, JD Logistics, Inc generated revenue of HK$231B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 29.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at HK$3.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$16.07 (bear case) to HK$26.79 (bull case); at HK$14.52, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 48%, 2618 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$48.98) versus Asset-Based (HK$5.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers warehousing and distribution services, including warehousing, distribution and delivery, and value-added logistics services; and express and freight delivery service, such as parcel pickup, parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, and last-mile delivery through warehouse, line-haul transportation, last-mile delivery, bulky item logistics, cold chain logistics, and cross-border logistics networks. It also provides value-added services, such as installment, after-sales and maintenance, logistics technology, and advertising services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of freight transportation, technology and consulting, and courier services; and freight forwarder and air cargo business. It serves fast-moving consumer goods, home appliances and home furniture, apparel, 3C, automotive, fresh produce, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. JD Logistics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Jingdong Technology Group Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
JD Logistics, Inc reported revenue of HK$217B in FY2025 versus HK$105B in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.6B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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