Data-driven stock valuation

JD Logistics Inc (2618) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what JD Logistics Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

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Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$73.2B (≈ $9.3B) · ISIN KYG5074S1012

At a glance

JL JD Logistics Inc 2618 · HK

PriceHK$11.02

Fair ValueHK$21.45

Upside+94.7%

Quality60/100

A solid business, trading 49% below our fair value of HK$21.45.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of JD Logistics Inc is HK$21.45 per share against a price of HK$11.02, so the fair value sits 95% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +24.2 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (12/14)

!Narrow moat 30/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

Evidence: Medium Range HK$16.09 to HK$26.82

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$21.43 to HK$21.45 (+0.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −24.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$16.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$6.80 – HK$47.00 · fair‑value band HK$16.09 – HK$26.82 · the HK$11.02 price screens below the HK$21.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

JD Logistics Inc (2618) currently trades at HK$11.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$21.45, implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$48.98 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$11.02 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.98, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, JD Logistics Inc generated revenue of HK$231B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 29.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at HK$3.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: HK$16.09 (bear) to HK$26.82 (bull), the price of HK$11.02 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 95%, 2618 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$32.95 HK$50.46 HK$106.25 76

Growth DCF HK$31.13 HK$55.84 HK$105.79 75

EPV HK$9.57 HK$10.77 HK$11.81 74

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$32.95 HK$50.46 HK$106.25 76

Owner Earnings HK$33.11 HK$72.29 HK$154.53 71

5Y Revenue Exit HK$16.61 HK$24.71 HK$40.77 71

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$31.79 HK$56.27 HK$102.85 72

5Y P/E Exit HK$23.17 HK$44.63 HK$72.74 68

10Y Revenue Exit HK$20.93 HK$35.59 HK$46.01 67

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$32.18 HK$66.58 HK$131.00 64

10Y P/E Exit HK$25.98 HK$48.98 HK$88.49 61

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$7.38 HK$51.45 HK$72.21 63

Lynch FV HK$17.45 HK$24.93 HK$32.41 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$17.45 HK$24.93 HK$32.41 57

EPV HK$9.57 HK$10.77 HK$11.81 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$17.09 HK$22.79 HK$28.48 63

P/S Multiple HK$13.83 HK$18.45 HK$23.06 58

P/B Multiple HK$13.83 HK$18.45 HK$23.06 55

EV/EBIT HK$13.07 HK$16.62 HK$20.18 66

EV/EBITDA HK$31.23 HK$40.83 HK$50.44 67

EV/Revenue HK$10.01 HK$13.28 HK$16.54 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$4.47 HK$5.98 HK$8.93 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$31.13 HK$55.84 HK$105.79 75

Rev-Margin DCF HK$16.61 HK$27.91 HK$45.31 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$8.30 HK$9.93 HK$21.26 66

ROIC Compounder HK$10.24 HK$13.47 HK$16.42 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$22.93 HK$32.75 HK$42.58 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$48.98) versus Asset-Based (HK$5.98). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.0 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 0.30 P/E × margin

Net margin 3.1% FY2025

Return on equity 11.6% TTM

Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% avg 5y

Operating margin 1.6% TTM

More key figures

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$231B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +29.0% 3y avg +16.5%

EPS growth (YoY) +13.7%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$11.1B FY2025

Net debt HK$3.9B FY2025 · ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 49

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 61

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 53

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 63

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 79

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 71

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 42

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 15

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 66

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers warehousing and distribution services, including warehousing, distribution and delivery, and value-added logistics services; and express and freight delivery service, such as parcel pickup, parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, and last-mile delivery through warehouse, line-haul transportation, last-mile delivery, bulky item logistics, cold chain logistics, and cross-border logistics networks. It also provides value-added services, such as installment, after-sales and maintenance, logistics technology, and advertising services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of freight transportation, technology and consulting, and courier services; and freight forwarder and air cargo business. It serves fast-moving consumer goods, home appliances and home furniture, apparel, 3C, automotive, fresh produce, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. JD Logistics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Jingdong Technology Group Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

JD Logistics Inc reported revenue of 217B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 85/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$217B

Latest YoY

+18.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+16.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+24.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+28.3%

EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

0.7% (2020) → 2.4% (2025)

Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band

not computed

Revenue +20.0%/yr

FY21 105B CNY

FY22 137B CNY

FY23 167B CNY

FY24 183B CNY

FY25 217B CNY

Net income

FY21 −15.8B CNY

FY22 −1.4B CNY

FY23 616M CNY

FY24 6.2B CNY

FY25 6.6B CNY

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JD Logistics Inc · Fair Value
HK$21.45 +49%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2618" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">JD Logistics Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$21.45</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+49%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JD Logistics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2618

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 206 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation

Quality Score 60 · Above median

Fair Value upside +92% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 29% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.0× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 1.34× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 0.32× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 5.1× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.48× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must JD Logistics Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-15.9 % per year

Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+24.2 % p.a.

Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %

FCF yield on price15.75 %

Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.0 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE100 · sector 44

FUTURE100 · sector 8

PAST47 · sector 26

HEALTH96 · sector 94

DIVIDEND0 · sector 56

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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Deutsche Post AG DHL	€56.14	€53.18	−5%
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Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN	CHF 211.30	CHF 147.92	−30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT	$256.48	$133.80	−48%
S.F. Holding 002352	¥32.96	¥48.64	+48%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW	$147.64	$86.56	−41%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD	$188.80	$115.95	−39%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ZTO	$20.95	$28.67	+37%

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Frequently asked questions

Is JD Logistics Inc (2618) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$21.45 versus a price of HK$11.02, about +95% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 2618?

Our model-based fair value for JD Logistics Inc is HK$21.45 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$11.02.

What is the quality score of 2618?

JD Logistics Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for JD Logistics Inc (2618)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$21.45 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$16.09, optimistic scenario HK$26.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the JD Logistics Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$21.45, about +95% upside versus a price of HK$11.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$16.09, optimistic scenario HK$26.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?

JD Logistics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$231B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2618?

The net profit margin of JD Logistics Inc is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

What growth is priced into JD Logistics Inc (2618)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JD Logistics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -15.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.0 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.2 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2618 use?

Our models discount JD Logistics Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is the intrinsic value of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JD Logistics Inc it is HK$21.45 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of HK$11.02. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is JD Logistics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Aug 13, 2026, 2618 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$11.02, fair value HK$21.45, a gap of about +95% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 2618?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$11.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$21.45). For JD Logistics Inc the two are HK$10.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is JD Logistics Inc worth?

The market values JD Logistics Inc at about HK$73.2B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$11.02; our models calculate a fair value of HK$21.45 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2618?

Our models span a range for JD Logistics Inc: cautious scenario HK$16.09, base HK$21.45, optimistic HK$26.82 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price HK$11.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 2618?

JD Logistics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Aug 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$21.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.1.

What is the PEG ratio of 2618?

The PEG ratio of JD Logistics Inc is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How solid is the balance sheet of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?

Balance-sheet figures for JD Logistics Inc (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 2618 from its 52-week high?

JD Logistics Inc trades at HK$11.02, about 34% below its 52-week high of HK$16.76 and 8% above the low of HK$10.20 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$21.45 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to JD Logistics Inc?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is JD Logistics Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price HK$11.02, calculated fair value HK$21.45 (+95%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 2618 calculated?

We run JD Logistics Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$21.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

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