YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what YTO Express Group Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.63 – ¥22.38 · fair‑value band ¥11.89 – ¥19.82 · the ¥18.33 price screens above the ¥15.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. provides express delivery services to franchisees in China and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Freight Forwarding Business, and Aviation Business segments.
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YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. provides express delivery services to franchisees in China and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Freight Forwarding Business, and Aviation Business segments. The company offers express services; warehousing and supply chain services, such as transfer services, warehousing system, and integrated warehousing and delivery; industry solutions, including platform and scene solutions; value added services comprising front, terminal, and full chain services. It also provides digital products consisting of YTO Neighbors, Yunmeng, and CRM and ERP; procurement, factoring, and payment settlement services; air, rail, multimodal, sea, and land freight; charter, airport operations, and self-operated routers; Yi Tong and shared products; and customs services. YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233) currently trades at ¥18.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.86, implying the stock looks roughly 15.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥42.92 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥18.33 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥6.32, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥11.89 (bear) to ¥19.82 (bull), the price of ¥18.33 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
YTO Express Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 75.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 45.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was 4.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 62.7B CNY (≈ $9.4B) · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.41 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −13%, 600233 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥11.89Fair Value ¥15.86Bull ¥19.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.8390 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 7%
Compare YTO Express Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 201 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "YTO Express Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600233
Frequently asked questions
Is YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥15.86 versus a price of ¥18.33, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600233?
Our model-based fair value for YTO Express Group Co Ltd is ¥15.86 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥18.33.
What is the quality score of 600233?
YTO Express Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥15.86 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.89, optimistic scenario ¥19.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the YTO Express Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥15.86, about −13% upside versus a price of ¥18.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.89, optimistic scenario ¥19.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
YTO Express Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 77.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does YTO Express Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
YTO Express Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For YTO Express Group Co Ltd it is ¥15.86 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of ¥18.33. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is YTO Express Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, 600233 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥18.33, fair value ¥15.86, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600233?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥18.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥15.86). For YTO Express Group Co Ltd the two are ¥2.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is YTO Express Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values YTO Express Group Co Ltd at about 62.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is ¥18.33; our models calculate a fair value of ¥15.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600233?
Our models span a range for YTO Express Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥11.89, base ¥15.86, optimistic ¥19.82 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price ¥18.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600233?
YTO Express Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥15.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.8, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 600233?
The PEG ratio of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 19, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
Balance-sheet figures for YTO Express Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600233 from its 52-week high?
YTO Express Group Co Ltd trades at ¥18.33, about 20% below its 52-week high of ¥22.86 and 48% above the low of ¥12.36 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥15.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to YTO Express Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is YTO Express Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price ¥18.33, calculated fair value ¥15.86 (−13%), Quality Score 59/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600233 calculated?
We run YTO Express Group Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥15.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. YTO Express Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥18.33. Our model-based fair value is ¥15.86, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with YTO Express Group Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233) come from?
Earnings per share at YTO Express Group Co Ltd grew +7.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of YTO Express Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
The market capitalisation of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 62.7B CNY (≈ $9.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
The price-to-sales ratio of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 0.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
Earnings per share at YTO Express Group Co Ltd are ¥1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
The dividend yield of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 1.4% (payout 17.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
The net margin of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
The return on equity (ROE) of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
The operating margin of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
Revenue at YTO Express Group Co Ltd is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233)?
Earnings per share at YTO Express Group Co Ltd are growing +61.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233) generate?
The free cash flow of YTO Express Group Co Ltd is −757M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233) hold?
YTO Express Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.4B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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