Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp HK$1.80, price HK$3.15, upside -42.8%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.7400 – HK$26.00 · fair‑value band HK$1.19 – HK$2.25 · the HK$3.15 price screens above the HK$1.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, and sale of artificial intelligence-based software and hardware technology solutions in China.
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AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, and sale of artificial intelligence-based software and hardware technology solutions in China. It develops ManuVision Intelligent Machine Vision platform used in liquid crystal semiconductor, food and beverage, automotive equipment, new materials, and 3C electronics; MatrixVision Intelligent Edge Video platform used in energy IoT, smart factory, smart security, and retail intelligence; Orion Distributed Machine Learning platform for scheduling strategy, user profiling, and risk control applications; and AInnovaiton Cloud platform that provides management and scheduling ability of heterogeneous resources. The company is also involved in housing, road, and municipal construction; communication technology development; asset and investment management; enterprise management consulting; and electromechanical equipment and technology development. It serves manufacturing, financial services, and other industries. The company was formerly known as Qingdao AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd in June 2024. Qingdao AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Qingdao, China.
Stock analysis
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121) currently trades at HK$3.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.80, 42.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 83/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$1.19 (bear) to HK$2.25 (bull), the price of HK$3.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 861M CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was −250M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.2B (≈ $278M) · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1000 · Net margin −16.5% · Return on equity −16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.6% · Operating margin −17.9% · Revenue (TTM) 1.5B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −43%, 2121 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.19Fair Value HK$1.80Bull HK$2.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.4% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−62.0% (2020) → −16.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 365 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−42.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−5.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−16.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−17.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.18× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 53
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.80 versus a price of HK$3.15, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2121?
Our model-based fair value for Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is HK$1.80 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.15.
What is the quality score of 2121?
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.80 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.19, optimistic scenario HK$2.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.80, about −43% upside versus a price of HK$3.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.19, optimistic scenario HK$2.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp it is HK$1.80 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.15. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2121 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.15, fair value HK$1.80, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2121?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.80). For Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp the two are HK$1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp worth?
The market values Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp at about HK$2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.15; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2121?
Our models span a range for Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp: cautious scenario HK$1.19, base HK$1.80, optimistic HK$2.25 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$3.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
Balance-sheet figures for Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −16.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2121 from its 52-week high?
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp trades at HK$3.15, about 63% below its 52-week high of HK$8.61 and 4% above the low of HK$3.02 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$3.15, calculated fair value HK$1.80 (−43%), Quality Score 59/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2121 calculated?
We run Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.15. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.80, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.19 to HK$2.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp
How large is the market capitalisation of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
The market capitalisation of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is HK$2.2B (≈ $278M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is 1.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
Earnings per share at Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp are HK$−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
The net margin of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is −16.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is −16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is −18.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
The operating margin of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is −17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121)?
Revenue at Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is growing +25.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121) generate?
The free cash flow of Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp is −64.5M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121) hold?
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp holds more cash than debt, 692M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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