Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$2.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.7600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.2500 to HK$0.7600). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.7400 – HK$26.00 · fair‑value band HK$0.2500 – HK$0.7600 · the HK$3.82 price screens above the HK$0.5000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp (2121) currently trades at HK$3.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5000, implying the stock looks roughly 86.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp generated revenue of HK$1.5B at a net margin of -16.5%. Revenue grew 25.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -16.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$692M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2500 (bear case) to HK$0.7600 (bull case); at HK$3.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -87%, 2121 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$1.56) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.3800). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, and sale of artificial intelligence-based software and hardware technology solutions in China.
Full company description
AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, and sale of artificial intelligence-based software and hardware technology solutions in China. It develops ManuVision Intelligent Machine Vision platform used in liquid crystal semiconductor, food and beverage, automotive equipment, new materials, and 3C electronics; MatrixVision Intelligent Edge Video platform used in energy IoT, smart factory, smart security, and retail intelligence; Orion Distributed Machine Learning platform for scheduling strategy, user profiling, and risk control applications; and AInnovaiton Cloud platform that provides management and scheduling ability of heterogeneous resources. The company is also involved in housing, road, and municipal construction; communication technology development; asset and investment management; enterprise management consulting; and electromechanical equipment and technology development. It serves manufacturing, financial services, and other industries. The company was formerly known as Qingdao AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd in June 2024. Qingdao AInnovation Technology Group Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Qingdao, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Qingdao AInnovation Tech Grp reported revenue of HK$1.5B in FY2025 versus HK$861M in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$250M in FY2025.
2121 screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $506.06 | $365.74 | -28% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$7.22 | C$2.34 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.84 | $61.46 | -62% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €358.00 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | -36% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥67.70 | ¥30.89 | -54% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,679 | ₹6,897 | -41% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.58 | ¥1.05 | -89% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,610 | ₹241.68 | -85% |
| PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk GOTO | 50.00 IDR | 20.41 IDR | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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