Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. HK$1.24, price HK$0.60, upside +106.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range HK$0.2450 – HK$1.01 · fair‑value band HK$0.8800 – HK$1.63 · the HK$0.6000 price screens below the HK$1.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of hydrogenated benzene-based chemicals and energy products in the People's Republic of China. It is involved in the production and processing of pure benzene, toluene, xylene, and LNG and coal gas; hydrogen purification; and operation of hydrogen refueling stations.
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Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of hydrogenated benzene-based chemicals and energy products in the People's Republic of China. It is involved in the production and processing of pure benzene, toluene, xylene, and LNG and coal gas; hydrogen purification; and operation of hydrogen refueling stations. The company also engages in the distribution and sale of coal gas; manufacturing and sale of LNG; provision of multimodal transportation, warehouse, and distribution services for coal products; and sale and retailing of LNG, refined oil, and hydrogen. It serves nylon and fertilizer manufacturers, refined oil product manufacturers, and other chemical companies, as well as industrial enterprises, trading customers, and retail customers of its self-operated oil and gas stations. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Jiyuan, China. Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Henan Jinma Energy Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502) currently trades at HK$0.6000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.24, implying the stock looks roughly 51.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$1.34 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$0.6000 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.2600, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.8800 (bear) to HK$1.63 (bull), the price of HK$0.6000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2026 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2022, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was −33.4M CNY in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$573M (≈ $73.1M) · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0200 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin −1.3% · Return on equity −1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% · Operating margin −1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 107%, 2502 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.8800Fair Value HK$1.24Bull HK$1.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.6% (2021) → −0.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.4% a year for the price.
Compare Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 707 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+106.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−22.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.24 versus a price of HK$0.6000, about +107% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2502?
Our model-based fair value for Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is HK$1.24 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6000.
What is the quality score of 2502?
Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.24 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8800, optimistic scenario HK$1.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.24, about +107% upside versus a price of HK$0.6000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8800, optimistic scenario HK$1.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2502 use?
Our models discount Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. that is -6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. grew +19.2 % a year. The price currently implies -6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (-6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.82 %: that much free cash flow Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. it is HK$1.24 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6000. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2502 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6000, fair value HK$1.24, a gap of about +107% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2502?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.24). For Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. the two are HK$0.6400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. at about HK$573M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2502?
Our models span a range for Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario HK$0.8800, base HK$1.24, optimistic HK$1.63 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.6000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
Balance-sheet figures for Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −1.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2502 from its 52-week high?
Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. trades at HK$0.6000, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7300 and 74% above the low of HK$0.3450 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.6000, calculated fair value HK$1.24 (+107%), Quality Score 44/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2502 calculated?
We run Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.6000. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.24, about +107% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.8800 to HK$1.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The market capitalisation of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is HK$573M (≈ $73.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is 0.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
Earnings per share at Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. are HK$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The dividend yield of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is 4.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The net margin of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is −1.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
The operating margin of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
Revenue at Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is growing −22.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502)?
Earnings per share at Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. are growing −66.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. (2502) carry?
The net debt of Henan Jinyuan Hydrogenated Chemicals Co. Ltd. is 148M CNY (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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