U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp TWD 33.04, price TWD 76.70, upside -56.9%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 32.65 TWD – 79.70 TWD · fair‑value band 22.99 TWD – 50.75 TWD · the 76.70 TWD price screens above the 33.04 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the marine transportation and investment businesses worldwide. The company owns and operates ships that carry various commodities, such as cement, crude oil, iron ore, coal, and grain shipments. It operates 73 vessels with a total deadweight of 8.8 million tons.
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U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the marine transportation and investment businesses worldwide. The company owns and operates ships that carry various commodities, such as cement, crude oil, iron ore, coal, and grain shipments. It operates 73 vessels with a total deadweight of 8.8 million tons. The company was formerly known as Yue Ming Transportation Co. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606) currently trades at 76.70 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 33.04 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 132.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 68.44 TWD per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the 76.70 TWD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 11.99 TWD, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 22.99 TWD (bear) to 50.75 TWD (bull), the price of 76.70 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
U-Ming Marine Transport Corp reported revenue of 15.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 14.0B TWD in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was 3.6B TWD in FY2025, compounding −7.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 64.8B TWD (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 3.45 · EPS (TTM) 5.20 TWD · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 23.4% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 61% fair-value upside, at −57%, 2606 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 22.99 TWDFair Value 33.04 TWDBull 50.75 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.76 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 24%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.9% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
Compare U-Ming Marine Transport Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.04× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.2× · Pricier than median
PEG0.49× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)67· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)57· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)73· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "U-Ming Marine Transport Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2606
Frequently asked questions
Is U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 33.04 TWD versus a price of 76.70 TWD, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2606?
Our model-based fair value for U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 33.04 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 76.70 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2606?
U-Ming Marine Transport Corp has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 33.04 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 22.99 TWD, optimistic scenario 50.75 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the U-Ming Marine Transport Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 33.04 TWD, about −57% upside versus a price of 76.70 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 22.99 TWD, optimistic scenario 50.75 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
U-Ming Marine Transport Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does U-Ming Marine Transport Corp pay a dividend?
U-Ming Marine Transport Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, U-Ming Marine Transport Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +38.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2606 use?
Our models discount U-Ming Marine Transport Corp at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For U-Ming Marine Transport Corp that is +38.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at U-Ming Marine Transport Corp grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +38.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (+38.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.87 %: that much free cash flow U-Ming Marine Transport Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For U-Ming Marine Transport Corp it is 33.04 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 76.70 TWD. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is U-Ming Marine Transport Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2606 trades above its calculated fair value: price 76.70 TWD, fair value 33.04 TWD, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2606?
No. The price is what the market pays today (76.70 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (33.04 TWD). For U-Ming Marine Transport Corp the two are 43.66 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is U-Ming Marine Transport Corp worth?
The market values U-Ming Marine Transport Corp at about 64.8B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 76.70 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 33.04 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2606?
Our models span a range for U-Ming Marine Transport Corp: cautious scenario 22.99 TWD, base 33.04 TWD, optimistic 50.75 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 76.70 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2606?
U-Ming Marine Transport Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 33.04 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.7, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 2606?
The PEG ratio of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
Balance-sheet figures for U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2606 from its 52-week high?
U-Ming Marine Transport Corp trades at 76.70 TWD, about 4% below its 52-week high of 79.70 TWD and 43% above the low of 53.60 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 33.04 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to U-Ming Marine Transport Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is U-Ming Marine Transport Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 76.70 TWD, calculated fair value 33.04 TWD (−57%), Quality Score 50/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2606 calculated?
We run U-Ming Marine Transport Corp through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 33.04 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. U-Ming Marine Transport Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 76.70 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 33.04 TWD, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with U-Ming Marine Transport Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (50.75 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (22.99 TWD to 50.75 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606) come from?
Earnings per share at U-Ming Marine Transport Corp grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +10.6 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The market capitalisation of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 64.8B TWD (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The price-to-sales ratio of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 3.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
Earnings per share at U-Ming Marine Transport Corp are 5.20 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The dividend yield of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 3.7% (payout 53.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The net margin of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 23.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The return on equity (ROE) of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
The operating margin of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
Revenue at U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606)?
Earnings per share at U-Ming Marine Transport Corp are growing +335% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does U-Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606) carry?
The net debt of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp is 29.4B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 24.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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