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China Airlines, Ltd (2610) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TW · Market cap 126B TWD

CA China Airlines, Ltd 2610 · TW
Price22.50 TWD
Fair Value14.65 TWD
Upside-34.9%
Quality36/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 7.4% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
3.92% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 50/100
Evidence: High Range 10.25 TWD – 22.21 TWD Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from 41.85 TWD to 14.65 TWD (−65.0%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +10.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 35% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (10.25 TWD to 22.21 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

30.04 TWD 12.79 TWD Fair Value 14.65 TWD Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 12.79 TWD – 30.04 TWD · fair‑value band 10.25 TWD – 22.21 TWD · the 22.50 TWD price screens above the 14.65 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

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Analysis

China Airlines, Ltd (2610) currently trades at 22.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.65 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 34.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Airlines, Ltd generated revenue of 213B TWD at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.1%. Net debt stands at 52.1B TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 10.25 TWD (bear case) to 22.21 TWD (bull case); at 22.50 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -35%, 2610 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 16.10 TWD 21.00 TWD 54.97 TWD 76
ROIC Compounder 24.65 TWD 31.27 TWD 38.82 TWD 72
Gordon GGM 7.31 TWD 13.62 TWD 22.26 TWD 70
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 16.44 TWD 40.89 TWD 53.02 TWD 54
PEG = 1.0 7.44 TWD 10.64 TWD 13.83 TWD 46
EPV 23.61 TWD 28.04 TWD 31.91 TWD 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 7.31 TWD 13.62 TWD 22.26 TWD 70
DDM Multi-Stage 7.31 TWD 11.04 TWD 15.10 TWD 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 38.07 TWD 50.76 TWD 63.45 TWD 63
P/S Multiple 30.82 TWD 41.09 TWD 51.36 TWD 58
P/B Multiple 30.82 TWD 41.09 TWD 51.36 TWD 55
EV/EBIT 40.75 TWD 55.31 TWD 69.87 TWD 53
EV/EBITDA 77.44 TWD 104.24 TWD 131.03 TWD 54
EV/Revenue 28.24 TWD 41.61 TWD 54.97 TWD 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8.02 TWD 10.75 TWD 16.05 TWD 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 16.10 TWD 21.00 TWD 54.97 TWD 76
ROIC Compounder 24.65 TWD 31.27 TWD 38.82 TWD 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 29.29 TWD 41.85 TWD 54.40 TWD 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (41.85 TWD) versus Asset-Based (10.75 TWD). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 213B TWD
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.0%
Net margin 7.4%
Return on equity 17.1%
Free cash flow −4.3B TWD FY2025
P/E ratio 8.7
More key figures
Operating margin 11.3%
EPS (TTM) 2.38 TWD
Dividend yield 3.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +23.1%
Net debt 52.1B TWD FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 36
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 27
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Airlines, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger, cargo, and postal services in the Americas, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, China, and Taiwan.

Full company description

China Airlines, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger, cargo, and postal services in the Americas, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, China, and Taiwan. The company also offers agency services for operations and maintenance; aircraft maintenance; avionics computer operation contracting; cleaning and washing products for passenger aircraft; real estate leasing services; in-flight meals; hotel and catering services. In addition, it is involved in agency and sale of aircraft parts and aviation equipment; aircraft leasing and sale; hotel business; computer hardware and software sale and maintenance business; cargo warehousing; intermodal air freight and warehousing business; real estate management; and airport support services and investment business. As of February 28, 2026, the company operates 83 aircraft, including 65 passenger jets and 18 freighters. China Airlines, Ltd. was incorporated in 1959 and is based in Taoyuan City, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Airlines, Ltd reported revenue of 209B TWD in FY2025 versus 139B TWD in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was 14.7B TWD in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
209B TWD
Latest YoY
+2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+11.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.7%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+4.4%
Revenue +10.8%/yr
FY21 139B TWD
FY22 151B TWD
FY23 185B TWD
FY24 204B TWD
FY25 209B TWD
Net income +11.9%/yr
FY21 9.4B TWD
FY22 2.2B TWD
FY23 6.8B TWD
FY24 14.4B TWD
FY25 14.7B TWD

2610 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Airlines, Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2610

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Airlines · 60 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 36 · Below median
Fair Value upside −35% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.77× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.59× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.22× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 37
FUTURE 40 · sector 46
PAST 69 · sector 46
HEALTH 61 · sector 72
DIVIDEND 78 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $84.17 $118.24 +40%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $120.97 $175.62 +45%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $47.56 $14.76 -69%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,249 ₹3,704 -29%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.60 SGD 7.89 SGD +4%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.97 ¥7.16 +20%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $54.87 $106.79 +95%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA €8.57 €15.42 +80%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.99 ¥1.28 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Airlines, Ltd (2610) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14.65 TWD versus a price of 22.50 TWD, about −35% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2610?
Our model-based fair value for China Airlines, Ltd is 14.65 TWD (as of Jul 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 22.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2610?
China Airlines, Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Airlines, Ltd (2610)?
China Airlines, Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 213B TWD (latest available figure, as of Jul 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2610?
The net profit margin of China Airlines, Ltd is about 7.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Airlines, Ltd pay a dividend?
China Airlines, Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.12% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 20, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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