China Airlines Ltd (2610) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Airlines Ltd TWD 10.37, price TWD 20.30, upside -48.9%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.98 TWD – 30.04 TWD · fair‑value band 6.08 TWD – 20.12 TWD · the 20.30 TWD price screens above the 10.37 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Airlines, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger, cargo, and postal services in the Americas, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, China, and Taiwan.
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China Airlines, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger, cargo, and postal services in the Americas, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, China, and Taiwan. The company also offers agency services for operations and maintenance; aircraft maintenance; avionics computer operation contracting; cleaning and washing products for passenger aircraft; real estate leasing services; in-flight meals; hotel and catering services. In addition, it is involved in agency and sale of aircraft parts and aviation equipment; aircraft leasing and sale; hotel business; computer hardware and software sale and maintenance business; cargo warehousing; intermodal air freight and warehousing business; real estate management; and airport support services and investment business. As of February 28, 2026, the company operates 83 aircraft, including 65 passenger jets and 18 freighters. China Airlines, Ltd. was incorporated in 1959 and is based in Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
China Airlines Ltd (2610) currently trades at 20.30 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.37 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 95.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 41.85 TWD per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the 20.30 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 10.39 TWD, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 6.08 TWD (bear) to 20.12 TWD (bull), the price of 20.30 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China Airlines Ltd reported revenue of 209B TWD in FY2025 versus 139B TWD in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was 14.7B TWD in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 136B TWD (≈ $4.3B) · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) 2.38 TWD · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −49%, 2610 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6.08 TWDFair Value 10.37 TWDBull 20.12 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.14 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 10%
2025 sits 98% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Below median
Fair Value upside−49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.77× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.39× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.64× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.22× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 61
FUTURE (revenue growth)40· sector 49
PAST (return on equity)69· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)61· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)81· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is China Airlines Ltd (2610) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10.37 TWD versus a price of 20.30 TWD, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2610?
Our model-based fair value for China Airlines Ltd is 10.37 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 20.30 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2610?
China Airlines Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10.37 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.08 TWD, optimistic scenario 20.12 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Airlines Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10.37 TWD, about −49% upside versus a price of 20.30 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.08 TWD, optimistic scenario 20.12 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
China Airlines Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 213B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Airlines Ltd pay a dividend?
China Airlines Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Airlines Ltd it is 10.37 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 20.30 TWD. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Airlines Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2610 trades above its calculated fair value: price 20.30 TWD, fair value 10.37 TWD, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2610?
No. The price is what the market pays today (20.30 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10.37 TWD). For China Airlines Ltd the two are 9.93 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Airlines Ltd worth?
The market values China Airlines Ltd at about 136B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 20.30 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 10.37 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2610?
Our models span a range for China Airlines Ltd: cautious scenario 6.08 TWD, base 10.37 TWD, optimistic 20.12 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 20.30 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2610?
China Airlines Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10.37 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 2610?
The PEG ratio of China Airlines Ltd is 1.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Airlines Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2610 from its 52-week high?
China Airlines Ltd trades at 20.30 TWD, about 16% below its 52-week high of 24.20 TWD and 14% above the low of 17.80 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10.37 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Airlines Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Airlines Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 20.30 TWD, calculated fair value 10.37 TWD (−49%), Quality Score 36/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2610 calculated?
We run China Airlines Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10.37 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Airlines Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 20.30 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 10.37 TWD, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Airlines Ltd right now?
Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (6.08 TWD to 20.12 TWD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of China Airlines Ltd (2610) come from?
Earnings per share at China Airlines Ltd grew +15.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.6 %, EBIT margin +7.5 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Airlines Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
The market capitalisation of China Airlines Ltd is 136B TWD (≈ $4.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Airlines Ltd is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
Earnings per share at China Airlines Ltd are 2.38 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
The dividend yield of China Airlines Ltd is 4.0% (payout 34.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
The net margin of China Airlines Ltd is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Airlines Ltd is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Airlines Ltd is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
The operating margin of China Airlines Ltd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
Revenue at China Airlines Ltd is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Airlines Ltd (2610)?
Earnings per share at China Airlines Ltd are growing +23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Airlines Ltd (2610) generate?
The free cash flow of China Airlines Ltd is −4.3B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Airlines Ltd (2610) carry?
The net debt of China Airlines Ltd is 52.1B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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