Shan-Loong Transportation Co Ltd (2616) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 1.9B TWD
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 2.51 TWD to 2.36 TWD (−6.0%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 83% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.60 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.15 TWD – 34.57 TWD · fair‑value band 2.20 TWD – 2.60 TWD · the 13.55 TWD price screens above the 2.36 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Shan-Loong Transportation Co Ltd (2616) currently trades at 13.55 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.36 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 82.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shan-Loong Transportation Co Ltd generated revenue of 8.2B TWD at a net margin of -10.1%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -26.0%. Net debt stands at 2.5B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2.20 TWD (bear case) to 2.60 TWD (bull case); at 13.55 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -83%, 2616 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (12.95 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (2.51 TWD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shan-Loong Transportation Co.,Ltd engages in the transportation, logistics, and fuel businesses in Taiwan, Mainland China, and Vietnam. It provides the container, bulk, fuel, and hazardous material transportation services.
Full company description
Shan-Loong Transportation Co.,Ltd engages in the transportation, logistics, and fuel businesses in Taiwan, Mainland China, and Vietnam. It provides the container, bulk, fuel, and hazardous material transportation services. The company also offers import/export, container loading/unloading, warehouse management, order processing, temperature warehousing, delivery, and reverse logistics, as well as handling, picking, and processing services. In addition, it provides customs brokerage services; sea, air, and land shipment services; and product storage management services. Further, the company owns a network of gas stations. Shan-Loong Transportation Co.,Ltd was formerly known as Wang Pai Transportation Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shan-Loong Transportation Co., Ltd in January 1982. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is based in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shan-Loong Transportation Co Ltd reported revenue of 8.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 18.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound −18.8%/yr. Reported net income was −849M TWD in FY2025.
2616 screens 83% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$89.93 | C$104.32 | +16% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $839.03 | $398.90 | -52% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $245.15 | $162.63 | -34% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $531.89 | $475.40 | -11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | -11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.00 | $108.04 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | -27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $36.43 | $35.52 | -2% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 109.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -26% |
| Vibra Energia S.A VBBR3 | R$33.04 | R$36.96 | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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