JD Logistics Inc (2618) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what JD Logistics Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.80 – HK$47.00 · fair‑value band HK$26.79 – HK$49.76 · the HK$10.79 price screens below the HK$38.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China.
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JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers warehousing and distribution services, including warehousing, distribution and delivery, and value-added logistics services; and express and freight delivery service, such as parcel pickup, parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, and last-mile delivery through warehouse, line-haul transportation, last-mile delivery, bulky item logistics, cold chain logistics, and cross-border logistics networks. It also provides value-added services, such as installment, after-sales and maintenance, logistics technology, and advertising services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of freight transportation, technology and consulting, and courier services; and freight forwarder and air cargo business. It serves fast-moving consumer goods, home appliances and home furniture, apparel, 3C, automotive, fresh produce, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. JD Logistics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Jingdong Technology Group Corporation.
Stock analysis
JD Logistics Inc (2618) currently trades at HK$10.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$38.27, implying the stock looks roughly 71.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$48.98 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$10.79 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.98, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$26.79 (bear) to HK$49.76 (bull), the price of HK$10.79 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
JD Logistics Inc reported revenue of 217B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$69.1B (≈ $8.8B) · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 0.30 · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin 1.6% · Revenue (TTM) HK$231B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 255%, 2618 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$26.79Fair Value HK$38.27Bull HK$49.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.7% (2020) → 2.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks
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Is JD Logistics Inc (2618) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$38.27 versus a price of HK$10.79, about +255% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2618?
Our model-based fair value for JD Logistics Inc is HK$38.27 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$10.79.
What is the quality score of 2618?
JD Logistics Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$38.27 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$26.79, optimistic scenario HK$49.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JD Logistics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$38.27, about +255% upside versus a price of HK$10.79 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$26.79, optimistic scenario HK$49.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
JD Logistics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$231B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JD Logistics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -20.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2618 use?
Our models discount JD Logistics Inc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For JD Logistics Inc that is -20.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has JD Logistics Inc (2618) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at JD Logistics Inc grew +24.2 % a year. The price currently implies -20.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of JD Logistics Inc (2618) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into JD Logistics Inc (-20.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.09 %: that much free cash flow JD Logistics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JD Logistics Inc it is HK$38.27 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$10.79. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JD Logistics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 2618 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$10.79, fair value HK$38.27, a gap of about +255% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2618?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$10.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$38.27). For JD Logistics Inc the two are HK$27.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JD Logistics Inc worth?
The market values JD Logistics Inc at about HK$69.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$10.79; our models calculate a fair value of HK$38.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2618?
Our models span a range for JD Logistics Inc: cautious scenario HK$26.79, base HK$38.27, optimistic HK$49.76 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$10.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2618?
JD Logistics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$38.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 2618?
The PEG ratio of JD Logistics Inc is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
Balance-sheet figures for JD Logistics Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2618 from its 52-week high?
JD Logistics Inc trades at HK$10.79, about 36% below its 52-week high of HK$16.76 and 6% above the low of HK$10.20 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$38.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JD Logistics Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JD Logistics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$10.79, calculated fair value HK$38.27 (+255%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2618 calculated?
We run JD Logistics Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$38.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. JD Logistics Inc currently trades 255 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with JD Logistics Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$26.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$26.79 to HK$49.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of JD Logistics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
The market capitalisation of JD Logistics Inc is HK$69.1B (≈ $8.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JD Logistics Inc is 0.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
The net margin of JD Logistics Inc is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JD Logistics Inc is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JD Logistics Inc is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
The operating margin of JD Logistics Inc is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
Revenue at JD Logistics Inc is growing +29.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JD Logistics Inc (2618)?
Earnings per share at JD Logistics Inc are growing +13.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does JD Logistics Inc (2618) carry?
The net debt of JD Logistics Inc is HK$3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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