Hangzhou Century Co (300078) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Share price +7.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.4845). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.95 – ¥8.39 · fair‑value band ¥0.3145 – ¥0.4845 · the ¥3.04 price screens above the ¥0.3995 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Hangzhou Century Co (300078) currently trades at ¥3.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3995, implying the stock looks roughly 86.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hangzhou Century Co generated revenue of 366M CNY at a net margin of -15.5%. Revenue declined 77.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 149M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.3145 (bear case) to ¥0.4845 (bull case); at ¥3.04, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -87%, 300078 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥0.4600) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd. provides electronic article surveillance (EAS) and radio frequency identification system (RFID) solutions in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Full company description
Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd. provides electronic article surveillance (EAS) and radio frequency identification system (RFID) solutions in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers RFID products, such as inlays and labels, apparel tags, laundry tags, asset tracking tags, and hardware; EAS products comprising V-stations, theft prevention systems, round or pencil tags, fireproof ink tags and bottle tags, function tags, alarming tags, RF labels, and safers; electronic shelf label products, including labels, handhelds, mobile phones, and accessories; and display security solution and smart shelf counters. Its products are used in the retail industries, such as apparel and fashion, hypermarkets and supermarkets, beauty and personal care, food and beverage, and digital and DIY stores; and supply chain and logistics, healthcare, hospitality, and manufacturing industries. Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hangzhou Century Co reported revenue of ¥684M in FY2025 versus ¥963M in FY2021, a compound −8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥67.2M in FY2025.
300078 screens 87% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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