Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd ¥0.41, price ¥2.81, upside -85.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.95 – ¥8.39 · fair‑value band ¥0.3230 – ¥0.5270 · the ¥2.81 price screens above the ¥0.4080 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd. provides electronic article surveillance (EAS) and radio frequency identification system (RFID) solutions in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd. provides electronic article surveillance (EAS) and radio frequency identification system (RFID) solutions in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers RFID products, such as inlays and labels, apparel tags, laundry tags, asset tracking tags, and hardware; EAS products comprising V-stations, theft prevention systems, round or pencil tags, fireproof ink tags and bottle tags, function tags, alarming tags, RF labels, and safers; electronic shelf label products, including labels, handhelds, mobile phones, and accessories; and display security solution and smart shelf counters. Its products are used in the retail industries, such as apparel and fashion, hypermarkets and supermarkets, beauty and personal care, food and beverage, and digital and DIY stores; and supply chain and logistics, healthcare, hospitality, and manufacturing industries. Hangzhou Century Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078) currently trades at ¥2.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.4080, implying the stock looks roughly 588.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥0.4800 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥2.81 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.3100, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.3230 (bear) to ¥0.5270 (bull), the price of ¥2.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hangzhou Century Co Ltd reported revenue of 684M CNY in FY2025 versus 963M CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −67.2M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6B CNY (≈ $534M) · P/S ratio 9.77 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −9.8% · Return on equity −11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.1% · Operating margin −4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −85%, 300078 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0200 to ¥0.5100). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.3230Fair Value ¥0.4080Bull ¥0.5270
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.6% (2020) → −12.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.9% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hangzhou Century Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300078
Frequently asked questions
Is Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.4080 versus a price of ¥2.81, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300078?
Our model-based fair value for Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is ¥0.4080 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.81.
What is the quality score of 300078?
Hangzhou Century Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.4080 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.3230, optimistic scenario ¥0.5270. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hangzhou Century Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.4080, about −85% upside versus a price of ¥2.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.3230, optimistic scenario ¥0.5270. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
Hangzhou Century Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 366M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hangzhou Century Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hangzhou Century Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hangzhou Century Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +36.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300078 use?
Our models discount Hangzhou Century Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hangzhou Century Co Ltd that is +36.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hangzhou Century Co Ltd grew -13.0 % a year. The price currently implies +36.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (+36.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.92 %: that much free cash flow Hangzhou Century Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hangzhou Century Co Ltd it is ¥0.4080 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥2.81. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hangzhou Century Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 300078 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.81, fair value ¥0.4080, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300078?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.4080). For Hangzhou Century Co Ltd the two are ¥2.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hangzhou Century Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hangzhou Century Co Ltd at about 3.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.81; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.4080 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300078?
Our models span a range for Hangzhou Century Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.3230, base ¥0.4080, optimistic ¥0.5270 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥2.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −11.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300078 from its 52-week high?
Hangzhou Century Co Ltd trades at ¥2.81, about 54% below its 52-week high of ¥6.11 and 7% above the low of ¥2.62 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.4080 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hangzhou Century Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hangzhou Century Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥2.81, calculated fair value ¥0.4080 (−85%), Quality Score 47/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300078 calculated?
We run Hangzhou Century Co Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.4080, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hangzhou Century Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥2.81. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.4080, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hangzhou Century Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.5270). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The market capitalisation of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is 3.6B CNY (≈ $534M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is 9.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Century Co Ltd are ¥−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The dividend yield of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The net margin of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is −9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is −11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is −19.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
The operating margin of Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078)?
Revenue at Hangzhou Century Co Ltd is growing −77.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Hangzhou Century Co Ltd (300078) hold?
Hangzhou Century Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 149M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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