Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 5.0B CNY (≈ $750M) · ISIN CNE100001138
What is Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 100% above our fair value of ¥3.15.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from ¥0.4700 to ¥3.15 (+570.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +42.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥2.21 to ¥4.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.72 – ¥9.34 · fair‑value band ¥2.21 – ¥4.16 · the ¥6.29 price screens above the ¥3.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189) currently trades at ¥6.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.15, implying the stock looks roughly 99.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥1.82 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥6.29 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥0.3900, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd generated revenue of 238M CNY at a net margin of 47.6%. Revenue declined 27.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.8%. Net debt stands at 153M CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.21 (bear case) to ¥4.16 (bull case); at ¥6.29, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −50%, 300189 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0735 per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥1.82) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.1100). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the breeding, production, and sale of hybrid rice seeds in China.
Full company description
Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the breeding, production, and sale of hybrid rice seeds in China. The company offers fertilizer; smart agricultural management; primary processing of edible agricultural products; retail of edible agricultural products; comprehensive utilization of fishery processing waste; sales of animal husbandry and fishery feed; wholesale of edible agricultural products; retail of aquatic products; marine environmental services; technical services, technical development, technical consultation, technical exchange, technology transfer, and technology promotion; wholesale of aquatic products; sales of specialized machinery for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, sideline production, and fishery; and leisure and sightseeing activities. It also engages in production of main crop seeds; operation of crop seeds; wholesale of pesticides; production of feed; production of food; aquaculture; production of aquatic seedlings; fishing; production of health food; sale of food; import and export of crop seeds; and import and export of aquatic seedlings. The company was formerly Hainan Shennong Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd. in July 2024. Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Haikou City, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 249M CNY in FY2025 versus 148M CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was 107M CNY in FY2025.
300189 screens 100% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $78.57 | $27.81 | −65% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$103.71 | C$113.16 | +9% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥27.65 | ¥21.26 | −23% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $125.79 | $161.00 | +28% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 437.20 | kr 630.39 | +44% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥31.58 | ¥42.12 | +33% |
| The Mosaic Company MOS | $23.60 | $28.68 | +22% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥45.86 | ¥38.01 | −17% |
| ICL Group ICL | $5.47 | $2.98 | −46% |
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