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Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd ¥0.80, price ¥5.53, upside -85.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · CN · ISIN CNE100001138

HS Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd logo Thin data Oct 1, 2026

Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd

300189 · SHE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 86% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 49.5% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Quality 59/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.0 %/yr in CNY)
Moderate moat 52/100 · thin data
Fair value ¥0.8000 · Strongly overvalued (−85.5%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥9.34 ¥1.72 Fair Value ¥0.8000 Apr 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.72 – ¥9.34 · fair‑value band ¥0.6600 – ¥1.07 · the ¥5.53 price screens above the ¥0.8000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the breeding, production, and sale of hybrid rice seeds in China.

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The company offers fertilizer; smart agricultural management; primary processing of edible agricultural products; retail of edible agricultural products; comprehensive utilization of fishery processing waste; sales of animal husbandry and fishery feed; wholesale of edible agricultural products; retail of aquatic products; marine environmental services; technical services, technical development, technical consultation, technical exchange, technology transfer, and technology promotion; wholesale of aquatic products; sales of specialized machinery for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, sideline production, and fishery; and leisure and sightseeing activities.

It also engages in production of main crop seeds; operation of crop seeds; wholesale of pesticides; production of feed; production of food; aquaculture; production of aquatic seedlings; fishing; production of health food; sale of food; import and export of crop seeds; and import and export of aquatic seedlings.

The company was formerly Hainan Shennong Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd. in July 2024. Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Haikou City, China.

Stock analysis

Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189) currently trades at ¥5.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.8000, 85.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥1.82 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥5.53 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.0900, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥0.6600 (bear) to ¥1.07 (bull), the price of ¥5.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 249M CNY in FY2025 versus 148M CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was 107M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 6.1B CNY (≈ $920M) · P/E ratio 50.3 · P/S ratio 21.6 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 43.0% · Return on equity 14.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at −86%, 300189 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0900 to ¥3.74). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.6600 Fair Value ¥0.8000 Bull ¥1.07
Price ¥5.53 · Upside -85.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0871 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings ¥0.6400 ¥0.9200 ¥1.27 77
Residual Income ¥0.6500 ¥0.7700 ¥1.02 76
EPV ¥0.0700 ¥0.1000 ¥0.1200 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥0.6400 ¥0.9200 ¥1.27 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.7100 ¥1.79 ¥2.33 65
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.3300 ¥0.4700 ¥0.6100 57
EPV ¥0.0700 ¥0.1000 ¥0.1200 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.0600 ¥0.1100 ¥0.1500 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0600 ¥0.0900 ¥0.1200 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥1.65 ¥2.20 ¥2.75 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.2900 ¥0.3900 ¥0.4900 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.80 ¥3.74 ¥4.67 55
EV/EBIT ¥0.2300 ¥0.3400 ¥0.4600 65
EV/EBITDA ¥0.3400 ¥0.5000 ¥0.6500 67
EV/Revenue ¥0.1300 ¥0.2300 ¥0.3400 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.3400 ¥0.4600 ¥0.6800 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥0.6500 ¥0.7700 ¥1.02 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.0700 ¥0.1000 ¥0.1200 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥1.27 ¥1.82 ¥2.37 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 46
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 81
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 77
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 58
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 59
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 40
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+59.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−27.1% (2020) → 11.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

300189 screens overvalued: fair value 86% below the price. Compare with Corteva, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 164 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −85.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 14.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 49.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −29.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −41.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.32× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 50.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 8.83× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 28.14× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)58 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)84 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)3 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥0.8000 −86%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300189

Frequently asked questions

Is Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.8000 versus a price of ¥5.53, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300189?
Our model-based fair value for Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is ¥0.8000 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.53.
What is the quality score of 300189?
Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.8000 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.6600, optimistic scenario ¥1.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.8000, about −86% upside versus a price of ¥5.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.6600, optimistic scenario ¥1.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 218M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd it is ¥0.8000 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of ¥5.53. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 300189 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.53, fair value ¥0.8000, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300189?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.8000). For Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥4.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd at about 6.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.53; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.8000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300189?
Our models span a range for Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.6600, base ¥0.8000, optimistic ¥1.07 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price ¥5.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300189?
Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.3 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.8000 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.8, P/S 28.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 14.6%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300189 from its 52-week high?
Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥5.53, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥9.34 and 38% above the low of ¥4.02 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.8000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price ¥5.53, calculated fair value ¥0.8000 (−86%), Quality Score 59/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300189 calculated?
We run Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.8000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was ¥5.53. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.8000, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
The market capitalisation of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is 6.1B CNY (≈ $920M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is 21.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
Earnings per share at Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd are ¥0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
The dividend yield of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is 0.1% (payout 6.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
The net margin of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is 43.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
The operating margin of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is −29.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189)?
Revenue at Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is growing −41.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189) generate?
The free cash flow of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is −21.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd (300189) carry?
The net debt of Hainan Shennong Technology Co Ltd is 153M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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