CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. stock ¥13.09, price ¥7.17, upside +82.6%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.48 – ¥13.31 · fair‑value band ¥11.18 – ¥16.09 · the ¥7.17 price screens below the ¥13.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, sells, and services semi-trailers worldwide. The company engages in the wholesale and retail of vehicles, auto parts, and metal materials; processing and manufacture of general mechanical products; and metal structures and related businesses.
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It also provides chassis, tractors, related spare parts, trailers and accessories, auto parts, containers, folding containers, tank containers, composite material products, tank trucks, and automobile trailers.
In addition, the company develops, produces, and sells various special vehicles, modified vehicles, transport vehicles, mechanical products, and metal structure parts.
Further, it engages in the sale of automobiles, trams, auto parts, metal materials, hardware products, electronic equipment, mechanical equipment, and chemical products; import and export of goods and technologies; operation of highways and parking lots; land freight transportation; domestic freight forwarding; and leasing of machinery equipment, vehicles, and containers.
Additionally, the company is involved in the development, construction, operation, leasing, and sale of warehousing and supporting facilities; property management and investment business; inspection of motor vehicles; and vehicle storage, warehousing, computer software, and logistics activities, as well as provides technical consulting services.
It markets and sells its products under the CIMC Lighthouse, Vanguard, CIE, SDC, LAG, Ruijiang Tanker, and Tonghua Tanker brands. The company was formerly known as Shenzhen Tianda Heavy Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co., Ltd. in May 2005.
The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039) currently trades at ¥7.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.09, implying the stock looks roughly 45% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥16.04 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥7.17 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.31, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥11.18 (bear) to ¥16.09 (bull), the price of ¥7.17 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 20.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 27.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.6%/yr. Reported net income was 904M CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 10.4B CNY (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4100 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 83%, 301039 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥11.18Fair Value ¥13.09Bull¥16.09
Price ¥7.17 · Upside +82.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1715 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.0% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
Compare CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+78.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.4% · Below median
Return on assets4.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.5× · Pricier than median
P/B0.73× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.50× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.6× · Cheaper than median
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Is CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.09 versus a price of ¥7.17, about +83% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 301039?
Our model-based fair value for CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is ¥13.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.17.
What is the quality score of 301039?
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.18, optimistic scenario ¥16.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.09, about +83% upside versus a price of ¥7.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.18, optimistic scenario ¥16.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039) and when is the ex-dividend date?
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. pays a dividend of ¥0.21 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 51.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.66 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -20.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301039 use?
Our models discount CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. that is -20.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. grew -5.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -20.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (-20.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.71 %: that much free cash flow CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. it is ¥13.09 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥7.17. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 301039 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥7.17, fair value ¥13.09, a gap of about +83% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301039?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.09). For CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. the two are ¥5.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. at about 10.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.17; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301039?
Our models span a range for CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥11.18, base ¥13.09, optimistic ¥16.09 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥7.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301039?
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.09 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.7. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
Balance-sheet figures for CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301039 from its 52-week high?
CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. trades at ¥7.17, about 29% below its 52-week high of ¥10.09 and 11% above the low of ¥6.48 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥7.17, calculated fair value ¥13.09 (+83%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301039 calculated?
We run CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥13.09 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. currently trades 45% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥7.17. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.09, about +83% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥11.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The market capitalisation of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is 10.4B CNY (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
Earnings per share at CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. are ¥0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The dividend yield of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is 2.9% (payout 51.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The net margin of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is 3.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
The operating margin of CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
Revenue at CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. (301039)?
Earnings per share at CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co. Ltd. are growing −9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026