Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A ¥22.18, price ¥34.48, upside -35.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range ¥21.55 – ¥62.79 · fair‑value band ¥16.82 – ¥25.72 · the ¥34.48 price screens above the ¥22.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the sludge treatment and recycling business in China. It operates through three segments: Sludge Treatment Services, Sales of Complete Equipment, and Ecological Restoration of the Water Environment.
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Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the sludge treatment and recycling business in China. It operates through three segments: Sludge Treatment Services, Sales of Complete Equipment, and Ecological Restoration of the Water Environment. The Sludge Treatment Services segment focuses on the treatment, disposal, and resource utilization of sludge from sewage treatment plants, utilizing proprietary deep dehydration technology to convert sludge into fuel for power generation or cement production, thus enabling closed-loop disposal and resource recycling. The Sales of Complete Equipment segment offers customized environmental protection equipment, including sludge treatment systems, volatile organic compound (VOC) treatment units, solvent recovery systems, and resource recovery equipment for the lithium battery, new materials, and chemical industries, as well as advanced oxidation wastewater treatment systems. The Ecological Restoration of Water Environment segment provides river and lake sediment pollution control, water diversion and purification, and ecosystem circulation purification technologies aimed at water quality improvement and ecological restoration. The company also engages in the research and development of high-salinity wastewater treatment and green synthesis of battery materials. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in Hangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203) currently trades at ¥34.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥22.18, implying the stock looks roughly 55.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥24.20 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥34.48 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥11.83, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥16.82 (bear) to ¥25.72 (bull), the price of ¥34.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A reported revenue of 300M CNY in FY2025 versus 331M CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 114M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6B CNY (≈ $540M) · P/E ratio 26.1 · P/S ratio 9.91 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.32 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 37.9% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −36%, 301203 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥16.82Fair Value ¥22.18Bull ¥25.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9656 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 43%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.6% a year for the price.
Compare Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 167 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−36% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.1× · Pricier than median
P/B2.51× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)12.05× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF8.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA20.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)66· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301203
Frequently asked questions
Is Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥22.18 versus a price of ¥34.48, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301203?
Our model-based fair value for Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is ¥22.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥34.48.
What is the quality score of 301203?
Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥22.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥16.82, optimistic scenario ¥25.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥22.18, about −36% upside versus a price of ¥34.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥16.82, optimistic scenario ¥25.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 300M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A pay a dividend?
Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A would have to grow free cash flow by +22.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -2.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301203 use?
Our models discount Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A that is +22.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A grew -2.4 % a year. The price currently implies +22.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (+22.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.39 %: that much free cash flow Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A it is ¥22.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥34.48. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301203 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥34.48, fair value ¥22.18, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301203?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥34.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥22.18). For Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A the two are ¥12.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A worth?
The market values Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A at about 3.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥34.48; our models calculate a fair value of ¥22.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301203?
Our models span a range for Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A: cautious scenario ¥16.82, base ¥22.18, optimistic ¥25.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥34.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301203?
Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥22.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 12.1, EV/EBITDA 20.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301203 from its 52-week high?
Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A trades at ¥34.48, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥52.25 and 14% above the low of ¥30.12 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥22.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥34.48, calculated fair value ¥22.18 (−36%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301203 calculated?
We run Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥22.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥34.48. Our model-based fair value is ¥22.18, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥25.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A
How large is the market capitalisation of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The market capitalisation of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is 3.6B CNY (≈ $540M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is 9.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A are ¥1.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The dividend yield of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is 3.3% (payout 86.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The net margin of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is 37.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is 16.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
The operating margin of Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
Revenue at Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A is growing +35.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A (301203)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Guotai Environmental Protection Technology Co. Ltd. A are growing −30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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