WIN Semiconductors (3105) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of WIN Semiconductors TWD 67.92, price TWD 497, upside -86.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 67.92 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−86%)
!Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −8.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.40% dividend yield
!Trails peers(5/15)
!Narrow moat43/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 74.50 TWD – 617.00 TWD · fair‑value band 59.60 TWD – 84.90 TWD · the 497.00 TWD price screens above the 67.92 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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WIN Semiconductors Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of gallium arsenide (GaAs) wafers in Taiwan, Asia, the United States, and Europe. It offers GaAs monolithic microwave ICs (MMIC) and radio frequency ICs, as well as develops and trades in hog farming technology.
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WIN Semiconductors Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of gallium arsenide (GaAs) wafers in Taiwan, Asia, the United States, and Europe. It offers GaAs monolithic microwave ICs (MMIC) and radio frequency ICs, as well as develops and trades in hog farming technology. The company also provides foundry services, testing services, and design support services, as well as high frequency packaging and final test services. In addition, it engages in investment, logistics management, and marketing activities; research, manufacture, and sale of high-density gene chips, biochip optical readers, and micro-electrophoresis analyzers; and farm feed development and trading activities. Further, the company develops and sells diagnostic tool for endometrial cancer; and offers information software services, biotechnology and pharmaceutical testing, and biotech research and development activities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
WIN Semiconductors (3105) currently trades at 497.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 67.92 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 631.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 105.17 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 497.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 13.07 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 59.60 TWD (bear) to 84.90 TWD (bull), the price of 497.00 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
WIN Semiconductors reported revenue of 16.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 26.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound −10.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7B TWD in FY2025, compounding −25.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 211B TWD (≈ $6.6B) · P/E ratio 95.6 · P/S ratio 9.73 · EPS (TTM) 5.20 TWD · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 442% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −86%, 3105 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (4.51 TWD to 187.61 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 59.60 TWDFair Value 67.92 TWDBull 84.90 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.47 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−24.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20% vs 0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 4%
2025 sits 56% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.1% a year for the price and +14.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 335 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)95.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.07× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)11.94× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA43.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.71× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)16· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "WIN Semiconductors Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3105
Frequently asked questions
Is WIN Semiconductors (3105) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 67.92 TWD versus a price of 497.00 TWD, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3105?
Our model-based fair value for WIN Semiconductors is 67.92 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 497.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 3105?
WIN Semiconductors has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 67.92 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 59.60 TWD, optimistic scenario 84.90 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the WIN Semiconductors stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 67.92 TWD, about −86% upside versus a price of 497.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 59.60 TWD, optimistic scenario 84.90 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
WIN Semiconductors reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.7B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does WIN Semiconductors pay a dividend?
WIN Semiconductors currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, WIN Semiconductors would have to grow free cash flow by +39.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3105 use?
Our models discount WIN Semiconductors at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.88, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For WIN Semiconductors that is +39.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has WIN Semiconductors (3105) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at WIN Semiconductors grew -8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +39.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of WIN Semiconductors (3105) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into WIN Semiconductors (+39.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.51 %: that much free cash flow WIN Semiconductors produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For WIN Semiconductors it is 67.92 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 497.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is WIN Semiconductors stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3105 trades above its calculated fair value: price 497.00 TWD, fair value 67.92 TWD, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3105?
No. The price is what the market pays today (497.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (67.92 TWD). For WIN Semiconductors the two are 429.08 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is WIN Semiconductors worth?
The market values WIN Semiconductors at about 211B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 497.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 67.92 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3105?
Our models span a range for WIN Semiconductors: cautious scenario 59.60 TWD, base 67.92 TWD, optimistic 84.90 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 497.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3105?
WIN Semiconductors trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 95.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 67.92 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 5.1, P/S 11.9, EV/EBITDA 43.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 3105?
The PEG ratio of WIN Semiconductors is 1.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
Balance-sheet figures for WIN Semiconductors (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3105 from its 52-week high?
WIN Semiconductors trades at 497.00 TWD, about 19% below its 52-week high of 617.00 TWD and 442% above the low of 91.70 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 67.92 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to WIN Semiconductors?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is WIN Semiconductors stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 497.00 TWD, calculated fair value 67.92 TWD (−86%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3105 calculated?
We run WIN Semiconductors through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 67.92 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. WIN Semiconductors itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 497.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 67.92 TWD, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with WIN Semiconductors right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (84.90 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of WIN Semiconductors (3105) come from?
Earnings per share at WIN Semiconductors grew +9.8 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of WIN Semiconductors
How large is the market capitalisation of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The market capitalisation of WIN Semiconductors is 211B TWD (≈ $6.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The price-to-sales ratio of WIN Semiconductors is 9.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
Earnings per share at WIN Semiconductors are 5.20 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 95.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The dividend yield of WIN Semiconductors is 0.4% (payout 38.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The net margin of WIN Semiconductors is 10.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The return on equity (ROE) of WIN Semiconductors is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of WIN Semiconductors is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
The operating margin of WIN Semiconductors is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
Revenue at WIN Semiconductors is growing +28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at WIN Semiconductors (3105)?
Earnings per share at WIN Semiconductors are growing +33.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does WIN Semiconductors (3105) carry?
The net debt of WIN Semiconductors is 5.3B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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