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Zhongyu Energy Holdings (3633) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$7.0B

ZE Zhongyu Energy Holdings 3633 · HK
PriceHK$2.48
Fair ValueHK$1.93
Upside-22.2%
Quality46/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/13)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.17 – HK$1.94 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from HK$1.99 to HK$1.93 (−3.0%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price −6.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 22% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$8.29 HK$2.45 Fair Value HK$1.93 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.45 – HK$8.29 · fair‑value band HK$1.17 – HK$1.94 · the HK$2.48 price screens above the HK$1.93 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Zhongyu Energy Holdings (3633) currently trades at HK$2.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.93, implying the stock looks roughly 22.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhongyu Energy Holdings generated revenue of HK$12.4B at a net margin of 2.0%. Revenue declined 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at HK$12.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.17 (bear case) to HK$1.94 (bull case); at HK$2.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -22%, 3633 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF — — HK$0.8700 80
Residual Income HK$1.95 HK$1.89 HK$1.59 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5400 HK$3.15 HK$7.22 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF — — HK$0.9200 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5400 HK$2.63 HK$6.89 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.36 HK$4.35 HK$10.04 41
5Y P/E Exit — HK$0.9100 HK$2.73 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.0400 HK$2.68 HK$5.31 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.7100 HK$4.30 HK$11.40 37
10Y P/E Exit — HK$0.7200 HK$3.03 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.6200 HK$4.33 HK$6.08 54
Lynch FV HK$1.44 HK$2.06 HK$2.68 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.44 HK$2.06 HK$2.68 46
EPV — HK$0.0400 HK$0.2300 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1700 HK$0.3400 HK$0.5200 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1700 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3600 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.23 HK$1.65 HK$2.06 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.17 HK$1.55 HK$1.94 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.17 HK$1.55 HK$1.94 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.48 HK$2.49 HK$3.50 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.23 HK$3.49 HK$4.75 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.9000 HK$1.95 HK$3.00 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.36 HK$1.82 HK$2.72 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF — — HK$0.8700 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5400 HK$3.15 HK$7.22 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.95 HK$1.89 HK$1.59 76
ROIC Compounder — HK$0.0400 HK$0.2300 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.79 HK$2.56 HK$3.33 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$3.15) versus Economic Profit (HK$0.0400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$12.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.6%
Net margin 2.0%
Return on equity 3.0%
Free cash flow HK$130M FY2025
P/E ratio 28.6
More key figures
Operating margin 5.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0900
EPS growth (YoY) +3.8%
Net debt HK$12.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhongyu Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, construction, and operation of natural gas projects in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Zhongyu Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, construction, and operation of natural gas projects in the People's Republic of China. The company is involved in the investment, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure; distribution of piped gas to residential, industrial, and commercial users; development of smart energy; operation of compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas vehicle filling stations; and sale of stoves, gas cooking appliances, gas water heaters, wall-hang boilers, and related services, as well as trading of natural, coal, and liquefied petroleum gas. It also engages in the design and development for new energy technology; and trading of natural gas and gas pipeline construction. The company was formerly known as Zhongyu Gas Holdings Limited and changed its name to Zhongyu Energy Holdings Limited in January 2022. Zhongyu Energy Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhongyu Energy Holdings reported revenue of HK$12.4B in FY2025 versus HK$11.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$247M in FY2025, compounding −32.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$12.4B
Latest YoY
−7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+35.0%
Revenue +2.3%/yr
FY21 HK$11.3B
FY22 HK$13.0B
FY23 HK$13.6B
FY24 HK$13.5B
FY25 HK$12.4B
Net income −32.5%/yr
FY21 HK$1.2B
FY22 HK$174M
FY23 HK$247M
FY24 HK$146M
FY25 HK$247M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +14.7 pp

of which total revenue +16.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.3 pp

EBIT margin −7.4 pp
Tax rate −2.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −5.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

3633 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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Zhongyu Energy Holdings · Fair Value
HK$1.93 −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhongyu Energy Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3633

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −22% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.72× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.95× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.56× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 6.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.3× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 4 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 12 · sector 34
HEALTH 64 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 67

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.84 €35.80 +24%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $177.68 $85.67 -52%
NiSource Inc NI $47.07 $28.59 -39%
Uniper SE UN0 €42.80 €49.13 +15%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.03 HK$5.08 -28%
Italgas S.p.A IG €9.98 €8.11 -19%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.71 ₹147.74 -14%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹723.90 ₹101.36 -86%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.30 ¥25.71 +49%
UGI Corporation UGI $35.84 $27.13 -24%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhongyu Energy Holdings (3633) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.93 versus a price of HK$2.48, about −22% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3633?
Our model-based fair value for Zhongyu Energy Holdings is HK$1.93 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.48.
What is the quality score of 3633?
Zhongyu Energy Holdings has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhongyu Energy Holdings (3633)?
Zhongyu Energy Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3633?
The net profit margin of Zhongyu Energy Holdings is about 2.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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