Keep Inc (3650) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Keep Inc HK$2.15, price HK$1.48, upside +45.3%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Keep Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range HK$1.26 – HK$39.90 · fair‑value band HK$1.42 – HK$2.69 · the HK$1.48 price screens below the HK$2.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Keep in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Keep is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Keep Inc., an investment holding company, operates an integrated online and offline platform for fitness service and online retail of fitness related products in the People's Republic of China. The company offers smart devices, including Spinning Bikes, treadmills, bracelets, and scales; and smart fitness devices, fitness gear, apparel, and food.
Show more
Keep Inc., an investment holding company, operates an integrated online and offline platform for fitness service and online retail of fitness related products in the People's Republic of China. The company offers smart devices, including Spinning Bikes, treadmills, bracelets, and scales; and smart fitness devices, fitness gear, apparel, and food. It also provides fitness offerings comprising recorded fitness courses, interactive live streaming classes, and AI-powered personalized training programs which adjust course content, workout intensity, and recommendations based on users' athletic levels, fitness goals, behavioral data, daily workout, and lifestyle patterns and diet. In addition, the company engages in the provision of advertising services; development and sale of self-branded fitness products; development of software; investment activities; production of online contents; and provision of online membership and paid content services. It sells its products through its own online store and third-party wholesale channels. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Keep Inc (3650) currently trades at HK$1.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.15, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$1.42 (bear) to HK$2.69 (bull), the price of HK$1.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Keep Inc reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −71.8M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $135M) · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0800 · Net margin −4.4% · Return on equity −5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −22.3% · Operating margin −7.1% · Revenue (TTM) 1.6B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 45%, 3650 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.42Fair Value HK$2.15Bull HK$2.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−60.3% (2021) → −5.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 183 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+45.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−7.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20.7% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Keep Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3650
Frequently asked questions
Is Keep Inc (3650) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.15 versus a price of HK$1.48, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3650?
Our model-based fair value for Keep Inc is HK$2.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.48.
What is the quality score of 3650?
Keep Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Keep Inc (3650)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.42, optimistic scenario HK$2.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Keep Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.15, about +45% upside versus a price of HK$1.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.42, optimistic scenario HK$2.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Keep Inc (3650)?
Keep Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Keep Inc (3650)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Keep Inc it is HK$2.15 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.48. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Keep Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3650 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.48, fair value HK$2.15, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3650?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.15). For Keep Inc the two are HK$0.6700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Keep Inc worth?
The market values Keep Inc at about HK$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.48; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3650?
Our models span a range for Keep Inc: cautious scenario HK$1.42, base HK$2.15, optimistic HK$2.69 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Keep Inc (3650)?
Balance-sheet figures for Keep Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −5.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3650 from its 52-week high?
Keep Inc trades at HK$1.48, about 75% below its 52-week high of HK$5.87 and 17% above the low of HK$1.26 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Keep Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Keep Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.48, calculated fair value HK$2.15 (+45%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3650 calculated?
We run Keep Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Keep Inc currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Keep Inc (3650)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.48. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.15, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Keep Inc right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.42 to HK$2.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Keep Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Keep Inc (3650)?
The market capitalisation of Keep Inc is HK$1.1B (≈ $135M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Keep Inc (3650)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Keep Inc is 0.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Keep Inc (3650)?
Earnings per share at Keep Inc are HK$−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Keep Inc (3650)?
The net margin of Keep Inc is −4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Keep Inc (3650)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Keep Inc is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Keep Inc (3650)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Keep Inc is −22.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Keep Inc (3650)?
The operating margin of Keep Inc is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Keep Inc (3650)?
Revenue at Keep Inc is growing −20.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Keep Inc (3650) generate?
The free cash flow of Keep Inc is −41.9M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
Free · no account needed
Watch Keep Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Keep Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
