3830 (3830) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Market cap HK$190M
Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated today
Share price −6.4% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range HK$0.0460 – HK$0.2240 · fair‑value band HK$0.0500 – HK$0.0800 · the HK$0.1900 price screens above the HK$0.0600 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.
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3830 (3830) currently trades at HK$0.1900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0600 — implying the stock looks roughly 68.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, 3830 generated revenue of HK$189M at a net margin of -4.6%. Revenue declined 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -34.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
3830 reported revenue of HK$197M in FY2025 versus HK$302M in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$7.0M in FY2025.
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6 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oriental Land Co OLCLF | $15.65 | $8.36 | -47% |
| Pop Mart International Group PMRTY | $20.05 | $6.96 | -65% |
| ANTA Sports Products Limited ANPDF | $9.10 | $7.74 | -15% |
| 9992 9992 | HK$153.40 | HK$237.11 | +55% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.76 | $19.60 | -42% |
| BANDAI NAMCO Holdings NCBDY | $11.18 | $15.86 | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.