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Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Kiddieland International Ltd HK$0.13, price HK$0.20, upside -35.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN KYG5259B1059

KI Thin data Oct 5, 2026

Kiddieland International Ltd

3830 · HK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

Quality 61/100
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Fair value HK$0.1300 · Strongly overvalued (−35.6%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.9 %/yr in HKD)
Loss-making · -3.1% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat 11/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.2240 HK$0.0220 Fair Value HK$0.1300 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0220 – HK$0.2240 · fair‑value band HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1600 · the HK$0.2020 price screens above the HK$0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Kiddieland International Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes plastic toy products and laboratory equipment in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific and Oceania, and the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Toy Business and Laboratory Equipment Business.

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Kiddieland International Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes plastic toy products and laboratory equipment in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific and Oceania, and the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Toy Business and Laboratory Equipment Business. The Toy Business segment operates through outdoor-and-sports, and infant-and-preschool toy categories, which manufactures and distributes ride-ons, interactive playsets, activity toys, musical toys, and action vehicles. The Laboratory Equipment Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of laboratory equipment for primary and secondary schools. The company provides design services for various graphic design requirements in production of toys; and management services, as well as creates toys under the Kiddieland brand name. It also offers merchandises production materials for toys; research and test development of laboratory equipment and score evaluation system; and imports and distributes toy products. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Kiddieland International Limited is a subsidiary of KLH Capital Limited.

Stock analysis

Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) currently trades at HK$0.2020, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1300, 35.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1400 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$0.2020 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1000 (bear) to HK$0.1600 (bull), the price of HK$0.2020 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Kiddieland International Ltd reported revenue of HK$201M in FY2026 versus HK$244M in FY2022, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$6.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$202M (≈ $25.7M) · P/S ratio 1.07 · Net margin −3.1% · Return on equity −41.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −28.8% · Operating margin −14.0% · Revenue (TTM) HK$201M · Revenue growth (YoY) +18.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 274% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 39% fair-value upside, at −36%, 3830 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1000 Fair Value HK$0.1300 Bull HK$0.1600
Price HK$0.2020 · Upside -35.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.1100 HK$0.1400 HK$0.2100 81
Growth DCF HK$0.1100 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 79
Owner Earnings HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 78
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.1100 HK$0.1400 HK$0.2100 81
Owner Earnings HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0200 78
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1000 HK$0.1400 HK$0.2000 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 77
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.0800 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1000 70
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0500 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.1000 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1800 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0100 HK$0.0100 HK$0.0100 55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.1100 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 79
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.1000 HK$0.1400 HK$0.2000 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.7% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.7% (2021) → −2.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.8% a year for the price.

3830 screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 176 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −35.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −6.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −14.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 18.4% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.16× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 2.5× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)92 · sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

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Acushnet Holdings GOLF $83.02 $43.08 −48%
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,145 PLN 5,660 PLN +10%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$12.24 HK$29.18 +138%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.10 ¥108.20 +192%
Mattel, Inc MAT $13.29 $21.66 +63%

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Kiddieland International Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1300 −36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kiddieland International Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3830

Frequently asked questions

Is Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1300 versus a price of HK$0.2020, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3830?
Our model-based fair value for Kiddieland International Ltd is HK$0.1300 (as of Oct 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2020.
What is the quality score of 3830?
Kiddieland International Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1300 (as of Oct 5, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1000, optimistic scenario HK$0.1600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kiddieland International Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1300, about −36% upside versus a price of HK$0.2020 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1000, optimistic scenario HK$0.1600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
Kiddieland International Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$201M (latest available figure, as of Oct 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kiddieland International Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.9 % per year. As of Oct 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3830 use?
Our models discount Kiddieland International Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kiddieland International Ltd that is +8.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kiddieland International Ltd grew -7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +8.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kiddieland International Ltd (+8.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.09 %: that much free cash flow Kiddieland International Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kiddieland International Ltd it is HK$0.1300 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2020. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kiddieland International Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 5, 2026, 3830 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2020, fair value HK$0.1300, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3830?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2020); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1300). For Kiddieland International Ltd the two are HK$0.0720 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kiddieland International Ltd worth?
The market values Kiddieland International Ltd at about HK$202M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 5, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2020; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3830?
Our models span a range for Kiddieland International Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1000, base HK$0.1300, optimistic HK$0.1600 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026, price HK$0.2020). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kiddieland International Ltd (as of Oct 5, 2026): return on equity −41.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3830 from its 52-week high?
Kiddieland International Ltd trades at HK$0.2020, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2240 and 274% above the low of HK$0.0540 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kiddieland International Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kiddieland International Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 5, 2026: price HK$0.2020, calculated fair value HK$0.1300 (−36%), Quality Score 61/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3830 calculated?
We run Kiddieland International Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kiddieland International Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was HK$0.2020. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1300, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kiddieland International Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Kiddieland International Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
The market capitalisation of Kiddieland International Ltd is HK$202M (≈ $25.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kiddieland International Ltd is 1.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
The net margin of Kiddieland International Ltd is −3.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kiddieland International Ltd is −41.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kiddieland International Ltd is −28.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
The operating margin of Kiddieland International Ltd is −14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
Revenue at Kiddieland International Ltd is growing +18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kiddieland International Ltd (3830)?
Earnings per share at Kiddieland International Ltd are growing −30.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) hold?
Kiddieland International Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$9.5M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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