Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$190M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0220 – HK$0.2240 · fair‑value band HK$0.0500 – HK$0.0800 · the HK$0.2020 price screens above the HK$0.0600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kiddieland International Ltd (3830) currently trades at HK$0.2020, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0600, implying the stock looks roughly 70.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kiddieland International Ltd generated revenue of HK$189M at a net margin of -4.6%. Revenue declined 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -34.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0500 (bear case) to HK$0.0800 (bull case); at HK$0.2020, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 274% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -70%, 3830 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.0200) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kiddieland International Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes plastic toy products and laboratory equipment in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific and Oceania, and the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Toy Business and Laboratory Equipment Business.
Full company description
Kiddieland International Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes plastic toy products and laboratory equipment in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific and Oceania, and the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Toy Business and Laboratory Equipment Business. The Toy Business segment operates through outdoor-and-sports, and infant-and-preschool toy categories, which manufactures and distributes ride-ons, interactive playsets, activity toys, musical toys, and action vehicles. The Laboratory Equipment Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of laboratory equipment for primary and secondary schools. The company provides design services for various graphic design requirements in production of toys; and management services, as well as creates toys under the Kiddieland brand name. It also offers merchandises production materials for toys; research and test development of laboratory equipment and score evaluation system; and imports and distributes toy products. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Kiddieland International Limited is a subsidiary of KLH Capital Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kiddieland International Ltd reported revenue of HK$197M in FY2025 versus HK$302M in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$7.0M in FY2025.
3830 screens 70% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$72.80 | HK$119.82 | +65% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$151.00 | HK$227.30 | +51% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.89 | $81.97 | -14% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $43.81 | $15.61 | -64% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.59 | HK$29.45 | +102% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 158.70 | kr 96.65 | -39% |
| Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 | R$17.25 | R$22.90 | +33% |
| Songcheng Performance Development Co 300144 | ¥6.17 | ¥6.85 | +11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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