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Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Saudi Public Transport Co. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · SA · ISIN SA0007870062

SP Some data Sep 13, 2026

Saudi Public Transport Co.

4040 · SR

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value 10.36 SAR · Fairly valued (−7%)
!Quality 31/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.7% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/12)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

29.00 SAR 8.09 SAR Fair Value 10.36 SAR May 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8.09 SAR – 29.00 SAR · fair‑value band 5.87 SAR – 11.76 SAR · the 11.20 SAR price screens above the 10.36 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Saudi Public Transport Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of transportation services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. It operates through Inter City Transport; Specialized Services; Urban transport; Digital mobility solutions; and Technical shared services segments.

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Saudi Public Transport Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of transportation services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. It operates through Inter City Transport; Specialized Services; Urban transport; Digital mobility solutions; and Technical shared services segments. The company offers public transportation, intercity transport, international transport, and specialized transport. It also provides maintenance and logistics services, digital transport solutions and metros and trains. It is also involved in the transfer of non-postal parcels and cargo; school transport and teachers transport services; car rental, dealership of busses, and private transport services; and import of spare parts and chemical detergents for vehicles. In addition, the company operates and maintains trains, metros, and motor vehicles and trucks; organizes tours; and transports pilgrims and visitors inside and outside of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Further, it provides digital mobility solutions, which include passenger solutions, eJourney platform, FinUP, MerAPP, and Fastmile services. Additionally, the company offers driver training services, and systems analysis and self-mobility technologies. Saudi Public Transport Company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) currently trades at 11.20 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.36 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 8.1% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 19.03 SAR per share, and 10 of the 17 models we run sit above the 11.20 SAR price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 5.24 SAR, and 7 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 5.87 SAR (bear) to 11.76 SAR (bull), the price of 11.20 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Saudi Public Transport Co. reported revenue of 1.8B SAR in FY2025 versus 905M SAR in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 113M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.7B SAR (≈ $719M) · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) 0.7000 SAR · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −7%, 4040 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 5.87 SAR Fair Value 10.36 SAR Bull 11.76 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4929 SAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 6.77 SAR 7.54 SAR 10.48 SAR 76
EPV 9.50 SAR 11.22 SAR 12.66 SAR 74
Owner Earnings 2.57 SAR 5.28 SAR 8.98 SAR 73
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 2.57 SAR 5.28 SAR 8.98 SAR 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 6.16 SAR 20.52 SAR 27.47 SAR 64
Lynch FV 4.65 SAR 6.64 SAR 8.64 SAR 61
PEG = 1.0 4.65 SAR 6.64 SAR 8.64 SAR 57
EPV 9.50 SAR 11.22 SAR 12.66 SAR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3.88 SAR 7.00 SAR 9.64 SAR 68
DDM Multi-Stage 3.88 SAR 6.23 SAR 7.48 SAR 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 14.27 SAR 19.03 SAR 23.79 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 11.55 SAR 15.41 SAR 19.26 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 11.55 SAR 15.41 SAR 19.26 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 19.25 SAR 26.71 SAR 34.17 SAR 66
EV/EBITDA 30.57 SAR 41.80 SAR 53.04 SAR 67
EV/Revenue 12.84 SAR 19.69 SAR 26.53 SAR 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.91 SAR 5.24 SAR 7.81 SAR 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 6.77 SAR 7.54 SAR 10.48 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 9.88 SAR 12.68 SAR 15.95 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 12.09 SAR 17.27 SAR 22.45 SAR 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 2
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs −8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27% → 12%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 113 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +24% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.50× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.20× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.5× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)23 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)81 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)60 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)75 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.81 ¥5.65 +17%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.94 HK$25.65 −22%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥6.13 ¥9.53 +55%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.80 ¥5.48 +14%

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Saudi Public Transport Co. · Fair Value
10.36 SAR −8%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Public Transport Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4040

Frequently asked questions

Is Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10.36 SAR versus a price of 11.20 SAR, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 4040?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Public Transport Co. is 10.36 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11.20 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4040?
Saudi Public Transport Co. has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10.36 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.87 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.76 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Public Transport Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10.36 SAR, about −7% upside versus a price of 11.20 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 5.87 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.76 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Saudi Public Transport Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Saudi Public Transport Co. pay a dividend?
Saudi Public Transport Co. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Public Transport Co. it is 10.36 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 11.20 SAR. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Public Transport Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4040 trades above its calculated fair value: price 11.20 SAR, fair value 10.36 SAR, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4040?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11.20 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10.36 SAR). For Saudi Public Transport Co. the two are 0.8380 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Public Transport Co. worth?
The market values Saudi Public Transport Co. at about 2.7B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 11.20 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 10.36 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4040?
Our models span a range for Saudi Public Transport Co.: cautious scenario 5.87 SAR, base 10.36 SAR, optimistic 11.76 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 11.20 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4040?
Saudi Public Transport Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10.36 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Public Transport Co. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4040 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Public Transport Co. trades at 11.20 SAR, about 22% below its 52-week high of 14.40 SAR and 40% above the low of 8.00 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10.36 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Public Transport Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Public Transport Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 11.20 SAR, calculated fair value 10.36 SAR (−7%), Quality Score 31/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4040 calculated?
We run Saudi Public Transport Co. through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10.36 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Public Transport Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Public Transport Co. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (5.87 SAR to 11.76 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Saudi Public Transport Co.

How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 2.7B SAR (≈ $719M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 0.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Public Transport Co. are 0.7000 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 4.5% (payout 72.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The net margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The operating margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Revenue at Saudi Public Transport Co. is growing +16.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Public Transport Co. are growing −75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) generate?
The free cash flow of Saudi Public Transport Co. is −323M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 1.2B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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