Saudi Public Transport Company (4040) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SA · Market cap 1.4B SAR
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price −2.2% over the past month.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (12.09 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (12.09 SAR to 22.45 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range 8.09 SAR – 14.35 SAR · fair‑value band 12.09 SAR – 22.45 SAR · the 10.98 SAR price screens below the 17.27 SAR fair value. As of Jul 31, 2026.
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Saudi Public Transport Company (4040) currently trades at 10.98 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.27 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 57.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Saudi Public Transport Company generated revenue of 1.9B SAR at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 16.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. Net debt stands at 1.2B SAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 12.09 SAR (bear case) to 22.45 SAR (bull case); at 10.98 SAR, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 57%, 4040 screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Saudi Public Transport Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of transportation services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. It operates through Inter City Transport; Specialized Services; Urban transport; Digital mobility solutions; and Technical shared services segments.
Full company description
Saudi Public Transport Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of transportation services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. It operates through Inter City Transport; Specialized Services; Urban transport; Digital mobility solutions; and Technical shared services segments. The company offers public transportation, intercity transport, international transport, and specialized transport. It also provides maintenance and logistics services, digital transport solutions and metros and trains. It is also involved in the transfer of non-postal parcels and cargo; school transport and teachers transport services; car rental, dealership of busses, and private transport services; and import of spare parts and chemical detergents for vehicles. In addition, the company operates and maintains trains, metros, and motor vehicles and trucks; organizes tours; and transports pilgrims and visitors inside and outside of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Further, it provides digital mobility solutions, which include passenger solutions, eJourney platform, FinUP, MerAPP, and Fastmile services. Additionally, the company offers driver training services, and systems analysis and self-mobility technologies. Saudi Public Transport Company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Saudi Public Transport Company reported revenue of 1.8B SAR in FY2025 versus 905M SAR in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 113M SAR in FY2025.
Is 4040 fairly valued? → Check now
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $259.91 | $143.65 | -45% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $46.23 | $10.82 | -77% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $89.60 | $29.46 | -67% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$166.50 | C$63.43 | -62% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $308.93 | $102.07 | -67% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation W1AB34 | R$642.84 | R$341.27 | -47% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥5.02 | ¥4.30 | -14% |
| MTR Corporation MTRJF | $4.55 | $3.57 | -22% |
| East Japan Railway Company EJPRF | $22.24 | $28.77 | +29% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥11.32 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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