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Saudi Public Transport Company (4040) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · SA · Market cap 1.4B SAR

SP Saudi Public Transport Company 4040 · SR
Price10.98 SAR
Fair Value17.27 SAR
Upside+57.3%
Quality36/100
Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 4.7% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/12)
Narrow moat 43/100
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Evidence: High Range 12.09 SAR – 22.45 SAR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated today

Share price −2.2% over the past month.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (12.09 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • A fairly wide model range (12.09 SAR to 22.45 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

14.35 SAR 8.09 SAR Fair Value 17.27 SAR Aug 2025 Jul 2026

12‑month range 8.09 SAR – 14.35 SAR · fair‑value band 12.09 SAR – 22.45 SAR · the 10.98 SAR price screens below the 17.27 SAR fair value. As of Jul 31, 2026.

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Analysis

Saudi Public Transport Company (4040) currently trades at 10.98 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.27 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 57.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Saudi Public Transport Company generated revenue of 1.9B SAR at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 16.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. Net debt stands at 1.2B SAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 12.09 SAR (bear case) to 22.45 SAR (bull case); at 10.98 SAR, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 57%, 4040 screens cheaper than that median.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.9B SAR
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.1%
Net margin 4.7%
Return on equity 15.0%
Free cash flow −323M SAR FY2025
P/E ratio 15.7
More key figures
Operating margin 9.2%
EPS (TTM) 0.7000 SAR
EPS growth (YoY) -75.0%
Net debt 1.2B SAR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100
Profitability 32
Quality Growth 68
Cashflow 2
Fin. Strength 17
Investment 76
Low Volatility 77
Momentum 35
52W Momentum 30
Net Issuance 0

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Saudi Public Transport Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of transportation services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. It operates through Inter City Transport; Specialized Services; Urban transport; Digital mobility solutions; and Technical shared services segments.

Full company description

Saudi Public Transport Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of transportation services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. It operates through Inter City Transport; Specialized Services; Urban transport; Digital mobility solutions; and Technical shared services segments. The company offers public transportation, intercity transport, international transport, and specialized transport. It also provides maintenance and logistics services, digital transport solutions and metros and trains. It is also involved in the transfer of non-postal parcels and cargo; school transport and teachers transport services; car rental, dealership of busses, and private transport services; and import of spare parts and chemical detergents for vehicles. In addition, the company operates and maintains trains, metros, and motor vehicles and trucks; organizes tours; and transports pilgrims and visitors inside and outside of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Further, it provides digital mobility solutions, which include passenger solutions, eJourney platform, FinUP, MerAPP, and Fastmile services. Additionally, the company offers driver training services, and systems analysis and self-mobility technologies. Saudi Public Transport Company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Saudi Public Transport Company reported revenue of 1.8B SAR in FY2025 versus 905M SAR in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 113M SAR in FY2025.

Revenue +19.2%/yr
FY21 905M SAR
FY22 1.2B SAR
FY23 1.6B SAR
FY24 1.5B SAR
FY25 1.8B SAR
Net income
FY21 −220M SAR
FY22 −96.4M SAR
FY23 −35.6M SAR
FY24 −9.6M SAR
FY25 113M SAR

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Public Transport Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4040

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 / 25
FUTURE 81 / 19
PAST 60 / 29
HEALTH 75 / 88
DIVIDEND 0 / 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Saudi Public Transport Company (4040) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.27 SAR versus a price of 10.98 SAR, about +57% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4040?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Public Transport Company is 17.27 SAR (as of Jul 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 10.98 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4040?
Saudi Public Transport Company has a Quality Score of 36/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Saudi Public Transport Company (4040)?
Saudi Public Transport Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Jul 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 4040?
The net profit margin of Saudi Public Transport Company is about 4.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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