Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Public Transport Co. stock SAR 13.10, price SAR 9.87, upside +32.7%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.09 SAR – 29.00 SAR · fair‑value band 9.82 SAR – 16.37 SAR · the 9.87 SAR price screens below the 13.10 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Saudi Public Transport Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of transportation services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally.
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It operates through Inter City Transport; Specialized Services; Urban transport; Digital mobility solutions; and Technical shared services segments. The company offers public transportation, intercity transport, international transport, and specialized transport.
It also provides maintenance and logistics services, digital transport solutions and metros and trains.
It is also involved in the transfer of non-postal parcels and cargo; school transport and teachers transport services; car rental, dealership of busses, and private transport services; and import of spare parts and chemical detergents for vehicles.
In addition, the company operates and maintains trains, metros, and motor vehicles and trucks; organizes tours; and transports pilgrims and visitors inside and outside of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Further, it provides digital mobility solutions, which include passenger solutions, eJourney platform, FinUP, MerAPP, and Fastmile services. Additionally, the company offers driver training services, and systems analysis and self-mobility technologies.
Saudi Public Transport Company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) currently trades at 9.87 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.10 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 24.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 17.27 SAR per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the 9.87 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.87 SAR, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 9.82 SAR (bear) to 16.37 SAR (bull), the price of 9.87 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Saudi Public Transport Co. reported revenue of 1.8B SAR in FY2025 versus 905M SAR in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 113M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.4B SAR (≈ $634M) Small · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) 0.9600 SAR · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 18.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 33%, 4040 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear9.82 SARFair Value 13.10 SARBull16.37 SAR
Price 9.87 SAR · Upside +32.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7969 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV6.89 SAR8.21 SAR9.32 SAR73
Residual Income6.92 SAR7.75 SAR10.03 SAR71
ROIC Compounder6.89 SAR8.44 SAR10.72 SAR71
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd6.16 SAR20.52 SAR27.47 SAR64
Lynch FV4.65 SAR6.64 SAR8.64 SAR61
PEG = 1.04.65 SAR6.64 SAR8.64 SAR57
EPV6.89 SAR8.21 SAR9.32 SAR73
Multiples
P/E Multiple14.27 SAR19.03 SAR23.79 SAR63
P/S Multiple11.55 SAR15.41 SAR19.26 SAR57
P/B Multiple9.41 SAR12.54 SAR15.68 SAR55
EV/EBIT8.53 SAR13.56 SAR18.58 SAR63
EV/EBITDA16.15 SAR23.72 SAR31.28 SAR66
EV/Revenue4.22 SAR8.83 SAR13.44 SAR50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)1.39 SAR1.87 SAR2.79 SAR53
Economic Profit
Residual Income6.92 SAR7.75 SAR10.03 SAR71
ROIC Compounder6.89 SAR8.44 SAR10.72 SAR71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E12.09 SAR17.27 SAR22.45 SAR67
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 10.7% / −7.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27% → 12%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.28 per share, median 0.83 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+32.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Public Transport Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4040
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.10 SAR versus a price of 9.87 SAR, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4040?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Public Transport Co. is 13.10 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.87 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4040?
Saudi Public Transport Co. has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13.10 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 9.82 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.37 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Public Transport Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13.10 SAR, about +33% upside versus a price of 9.87 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 9.82 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.37 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Saudi Public Transport Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Public Transport Co. it is 13.10 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 9.87 SAR. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Public Transport Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 4040 trades below its calculated fair value: price 9.87 SAR, fair value 13.10 SAR, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4040?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.87 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13.10 SAR). For Saudi Public Transport Co. the two are 3.23 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Public Transport Co. worth?
The market values Saudi Public Transport Co. at about 2.4B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 9.87 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 13.10 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4040?
Our models span a range for Saudi Public Transport Co.: cautious scenario 9.82 SAR, base 13.10 SAR, optimistic 16.37 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 9.87 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4040?
Saudi Public Transport Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 13.10 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Public Transport Co. (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 17.7%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4040 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Public Transport Co. trades at 9.87 SAR, about 24% below its 52-week high of 12.97 SAR and 22% above the low of 8.09 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13.10 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Public Transport Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Public Transport Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 9.87 SAR, calculated fair value 13.10 SAR (+33%), Quality Score 32/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4040 calculated?
We run Saudi Public Transport Co. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 13.10 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Public Transport Co. currently trades 25 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 9.87 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 13.10 SAR, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Public Transport Co. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Saudi Public Transport Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 2.4B SAR (≈ $634M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Public Transport Co. are 0.9600 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The net margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 6.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
The operating margin of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Revenue at Saudi Public Transport Co. is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Public Transport Co. are growing +89.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) generate?
The free cash flow of Saudi Public Transport Co. is −323M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Saudi Public Transport Co. (4040) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Public Transport Co. is 1.2B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 28, 2026