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Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Red Sea Housing Services Company stock SAR 10.94, price SAR 18.50, upside -40.9%, quality 26 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate SA · ISIN SA000A0KEWM4

RS Red Sea Housing Services Company logo Thin data Oct 27, 2026

Red Sea Housing Services Company

4230 · SR
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 41% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +44.6 %/yr in SAR)
Revenue last quarter 22% below a year ago.
Fair value 10.94 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−40.9%)
Quality 26/100
Loss-making · -1.8% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (2/12)
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

77.90 SAR 14.43 SAR Fair Value 10.94 SAR Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 14.43 SAR – 77.90 SAR · fair‑value band 5.74 SAR – 16.26 SAR · the 18.50 SAR price screens above the 10.94 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Red Sea International Company, together with its subsidiaries, purchases, develops, sells, and leases lands and real estate properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally.

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The company operates through three segments: General Construction; Nonconcrete Residential and Commercial Buildings; and Facility Management and Rental of Investment Properties.

It manufactures modular buildings, including retail, hospitality, education, health, commercial, and residential buildings; designs, plans, produces, manages, leases, and operates housing projects; offers on-site facilities management services, such as catering, security, and laundry; and produces and distributes paint and coating products.

The company also designs and manufactures in-house service utilities comprising power generator and fire suppression acoustic enclosures, water and sewage treatment plants, fuel and water storage tanks, electrical panels, cabling, water supply, and drainage piping.

In addition, it provides engineering and design; camp operations and maintenance; power generation; communication services; infrastructural works; furnishing; hospitality and catering; laundry and pressing; project logistics; multiple contracting and commercial models; and turnkey solutions.

Further, the company is involved in electrical, utilities, and civil works; lighting; fiber optic; information technology; maintenance and repair of electrical installations, as well as telephone networks; manufacturing and sale of non-concrete residential and commercial units; and trade of food products.

It serves the oil and gas, infrastructure, government, building and construction, mining, defense, offshore, and manufacturing sectors. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Red Sea International Company operates as a subsidiary of Al Dabbagh Group Holding Company Limited.

Stock analysis

Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) currently trades at 18.50 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.94 SAR, 40.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 10.94 SAR per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the 18.50 SAR price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 4.49 SAR, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 5.74 SAR (bear) to 16.26 SAR (bull), the price of 18.50 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Red Sea Housing Services Company reported revenue of 3.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 468M SAR in FY2021, a compound +63.9%/yr. Reported net income was −55.0M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 893M SAR (≈ $238M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) −1.51 SAR · Net margin −1.8% · Return on equity −10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.4% · Operating margin −2.5% · Revenue (TTM) 3.1B SAR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −41%, 4230 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 5.74 SAR Fair Value 10.94 SAR Bull 16.26 SAR
Price 18.50 SAR · Upside -40.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF 5.74 SAR 10.94 SAR 18.75 SAR 77
Growth DCF 5.58 SAR 10.04 SAR 16.26 SAR 76
5Y EBITDA Exit 31.68 SAR 65.67 SAR 109.51 SAR 72
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 5.74 SAR 10.94 SAR 18.75 SAR 77
5Y Revenue Exit 3.74 SAR 7.43 SAR 12.32 SAR 70
5Y EBITDA Exit 31.68 SAR 65.67 SAR 109.51 SAR 72
10Y Revenue Exit 4.31 SAR 7.84 SAR 13.08 SAR 65
10Y EBITDA Exit 20.88 SAR 45.75 SAR 85.64 SAR 64
Multiples
EV/EBIT 1.61 SAR 4.49 SAR 7.37 SAR 61
EV/EBITDA 48.01 SAR 66.36 SAR 84.71 SAR 67
EV/Revenue n/a n/a 1.82 SAR 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.3800 SAR 0.5100 SAR 0.7600 SAR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 5.58 SAR 10.04 SAR 16.26 SAR 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 24
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 17
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 18
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 70
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 9
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 8
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 35
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+102.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.0% (2020) → 0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.4% a year for the price.

4230 screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with CBRE Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 525 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −40.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −1.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −2.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −22.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.39× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.29× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow 42.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)81 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 66

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vonovia SE VNA €16.47 €36.52 +122% vs 4230
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $333.34 $529.78 +59% vs 4230
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$39.42 HK$55.33 +40% vs 4230
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €25.55 €23.66 −7% vs 4230
Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 HK$31.04 HK$27.21 −12% vs 4230
CBRE Group CBRE $121.65 $89.81 −26% vs 4230
KE Holdings BEKE $17.08 $7.31 −57% vs 4230
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.39 SGD 0.7800 SGD −67% vs 4230
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$25.14 HK$5.88 −77% vs 4230
CoStar Group CSGP $32.01 $6.09 −81% vs 4230

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Red Sea Housing Services Company · Fair Value
10.94 SAR −41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red Sea Housing Services Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4230

Frequently asked questions

Is Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10.94 SAR versus a price of 18.50 SAR, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4230?
Our model-based fair value for Red Sea Housing Services Company is 10.94 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18.50 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4230?
Red Sea Housing Services Company has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10.94 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.74 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.26 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Red Sea Housing Services Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10.94 SAR, about −41% upside versus a price of 18.50 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.74 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.26 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Red Sea Housing Services Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Red Sea Housing Services Company would have to grow free cash flow by +31.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +44.6 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4230 use?
Our models discount Red Sea Housing Services Company at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Red Sea Housing Services Company that is +31.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Red Sea Housing Services Company grew +44.6 % a year. The price currently implies +31.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Red Sea Housing Services Company (+31.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.55 %: that much free cash flow Red Sea Housing Services Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Sea Housing Services Company it is 10.94 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 18.50 SAR. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Red Sea Housing Services Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 4230 trades above its calculated fair value: price 18.50 SAR, fair value 10.94 SAR, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4230?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18.50 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10.94 SAR). For Red Sea Housing Services Company the two are 7.56 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Red Sea Housing Services Company worth?
The market values Red Sea Housing Services Company at about 893M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 18.50 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 10.94 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4230?
Our models span a range for Red Sea Housing Services Company: cautious scenario 5.74 SAR, base 10.94 SAR, optimistic 16.26 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 18.50 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Balance-sheet figures for Red Sea Housing Services Company (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −10.8%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4230 from its 52-week high?
Red Sea Housing Services Company trades at 18.50 SAR, about 54% below its 52-week high of 40.50 SAR and 28% above the low of 14.43 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10.94 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Red Sea Housing Services Company?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Red Sea Housing Services Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 18.50 SAR, calculated fair value 10.94 SAR (−41%), Quality Score 26/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4230 calculated?
We run Red Sea Housing Services Company through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10.94 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Red Sea Housing Services Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 18.50 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 10.94 SAR, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Red Sea Housing Services Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (16.26 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (5.74 SAR to 16.26 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Red Sea Housing Services Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The market capitalisation of Red Sea Housing Services Company is 893M SAR (≈ $238M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Red Sea Housing Services Company is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Earnings per share at Red Sea Housing Services Company are −1.51 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The net margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company is −1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Red Sea Housing Services Company is −10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Sea Housing Services Company is −6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The operating margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Revenue at Red Sea Housing Services Company is growing −22.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +103%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) carry?
The net debt of Red Sea Housing Services Company is 340M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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