Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Red Sea Housing Services Company is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.00 SAR – 77.90 SAR · fair‑value band 2.89 SAR – 11.15 SAR · the 22.23 SAR price screens above the 6.66 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Red Sea International Company, together with its subsidiaries, purchases, develops, sells, and leases lands and real estate properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally.
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Red Sea International Company, together with its subsidiaries, purchases, develops, sells, and leases lands and real estate properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: General Construction; Nonconcrete Residential and Commercial Buildings; and Facility Management and Rental of Investment Properties. It manufactures modular buildings, including retail, hospitality, education, health, commercial, and residential buildings; designs, plans, produces, manages, leases, and operates housing projects; offers on-site facilities management services, such as catering, security, and laundry; and produces and distributes paint and coating products. The company also designs and manufactures in-house service utilities comprising power generator and fire suppression acoustic enclosures, water and sewage treatment plants, fuel and water storage tanks, electrical panels, cabling, water supply, and drainage piping. In addition, it provides engineering and design; camp operations and maintenance; power generation; communication services; infrastructural works; furnishing; hospitality and catering; laundry and pressing; project logistics; multiple contracting and commercial models; and turnkey solutions. Further, the company is involved in electrical, utilities, and civil works; lighting; fiber optic; information technology; maintenance and repair of electrical installations, as well as telephone networks; manufacturing and sale of non-concrete residential and commercial units; and trade of food products. It serves the oil and gas, infrastructure, government, building and construction, mining, defense, offshore, and manufacturing sectors. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Red Sea International Company operates as a subsidiary of Al Dabbagh Group Holding Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) currently trades at 22.23 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.66 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 233.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 9.36 SAR per share, and 3 of the 10 models we run sit above the 22.23 SAR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 5.36 SAR, and 7 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 2.89 SAR (bear) to 11.15 SAR (bull), the price of 22.23 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Red Sea Housing Services Company reported revenue of 3.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 468M SAR in FY2021, a compound +63.9%/yr. Reported net income was −55.0M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B SAR (≈ $298M) · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) −1.09 SAR · Net margin −1.6% · Return on equity −4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.4% · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) 3.3B SAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −70%, 4230 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.89 SARFair Value 6.66 SARBull 11.15 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+102.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.0% (2020) → 0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Red Sea Housing Services Company with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 539 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+152% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.69× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF14.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.7× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 66
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red Sea Housing Services Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4230
Frequently asked questions
Is Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6.66 SAR versus a price of 22.23 SAR, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4230?
Our model-based fair value for Red Sea Housing Services Company is 6.66 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 22.23 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4230?
Red Sea Housing Services Company has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6.66 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.89 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.15 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Red Sea Housing Services Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6.66 SAR, about −70% upside versus a price of 22.23 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.89 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.15 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Red Sea Housing Services Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Red Sea Housing Services Company would have to grow free cash flow by +33.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +44.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4230 use?
Our models discount Red Sea Housing Services Company at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Red Sea Housing Services Company that is +33.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Red Sea Housing Services Company grew +44.6 % a year. The price currently implies +33.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Red Sea Housing Services Company (+33.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.96 %: that much free cash flow Red Sea Housing Services Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Sea Housing Services Company it is 6.66 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 22.23 SAR. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Red Sea Housing Services Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4230 trades above its calculated fair value: price 22.23 SAR, fair value 6.66 SAR, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4230?
No. The price is what the market pays today (22.23 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6.66 SAR). For Red Sea Housing Services Company the two are 15.57 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Red Sea Housing Services Company worth?
The market values Red Sea Housing Services Company at about 1.1B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 22.23 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 6.66 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4230?
Our models span a range for Red Sea Housing Services Company: cautious scenario 2.89 SAR, base 6.66 SAR, optimistic 11.15 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 22.23 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Balance-sheet figures for Red Sea Housing Services Company (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −4.7%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4230 from its 52-week high?
Red Sea Housing Services Company trades at 22.23 SAR, about 55% below its 52-week high of 48.98 SAR and 15% above the low of 19.30 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6.66 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Red Sea Housing Services Company?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Red Sea Housing Services Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 22.23 SAR, calculated fair value 6.66 SAR (−70%), Quality Score 26/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4230 calculated?
We run Red Sea Housing Services Company through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6.66 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Red Sea Housing Services Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Red Sea Housing Services Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11.15 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (2.89 SAR to 11.15 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Red Sea Housing Services Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The market capitalisation of Red Sea Housing Services Company is 1.1B SAR (≈ $298M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Red Sea Housing Services Company is 0.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Earnings per share at Red Sea Housing Services Company are −1.09 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The net margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company is −1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Red Sea Housing Services Company is −4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Sea Housing Services Company is −6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
The operating margin of Red Sea Housing Services Company is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230)?
Revenue at Red Sea Housing Services Company is growing −9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +103%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Red Sea Housing Services Company (4230) carry?
The net debt of Red Sea Housing Services Company is 340M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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