Arabian Centres Co (4321) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arabian Centres Co stock SAR 10.31, price SAR 12.80, upside -19.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.10 SAR – 179.68 SAR · fair‑value band 8.47 SAR – 19.92 SAR · the 12.80 SAR price screens above the 10.31 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Arabian Centres Company engages in the operation and management of commercial centres, tourist resorts, hotels, and restaurants in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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It is involved in the purchase lands; build, develop, and invest in buildings; sell or lease of buildings and the construction of commercial buildings, including demolition, repair, excavation, and maintenance works; operates and manages temporary and permanent exhibitions, compounds, and hospitals.
Arabian Centres Company was founded in 2002 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Arabian Centres Co (4321) currently trades at 12.80 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.31 SAR, 19.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 26.00 SAR per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the 12.80 SAR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 4.43 SAR, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 8.47 SAR (bear) to 19.92 SAR (bull), the price of 12.80 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arabian Centres Co reported revenue of 2.3B SAR in FY2026 versus 2.0B SAR in FY2022, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B SAR in FY2026, compounding +30.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 6.6B SAR (≈ $1.7B) Small · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) 2.26 SAR · Dividend yield 8.1% · Net margin 51.7% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −19%, 4321 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear8.47 SARFair Value 10.31 SARBull19.92 SAR
Price 12.80 SAR · Upside -19.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.31 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.1% vs 1.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 54%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+30.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price and +27.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 129 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)51.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)63.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.88× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arabian Centres Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4321
Frequently asked questions
Is Arabian Centres Co (4321) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10.31 SAR versus a price of 12.80 SAR, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4321?
Our model-based fair value for Arabian Centres Co is 10.31 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12.80 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4321?
Arabian Centres Co has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10.31 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.47 SAR, optimistic scenario 19.92 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arabian Centres Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10.31 SAR, about −19% upside versus a price of 12.80 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.47 SAR, optimistic scenario 19.92 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
Arabian Centres Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Arabian Centres Co pay a dividend?
Arabian Centres Co currently shows a dividend yield of 8.06% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arabian Centres Co would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4321 use?
Our models discount Arabian Centres Co at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arabian Centres Co that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arabian Centres Co (4321) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arabian Centres Co grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arabian Centres Co (4321) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arabian Centres Co (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.04 %: that much free cash flow Arabian Centres Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arabian Centres Co it is 10.31 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 12.80 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arabian Centres Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 4321 trades above its calculated fair value: price 12.80 SAR, fair value 10.31 SAR, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4321?
No. The price is what the market pays today (12.80 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10.31 SAR). For Arabian Centres Co the two are 2.49 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arabian Centres Co worth?
The market values Arabian Centres Co at about 6.6B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 12.80 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 10.31 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4321?
Our models span a range for Arabian Centres Co: cautious scenario 8.47 SAR, base 10.31 SAR, optimistic 19.92 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 12.80 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4321?
Arabian Centres Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10.31 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 15.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arabian Centres Co (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4321 from its 52-week high?
Arabian Centres Co trades at 12.80 SAR, about 37% below its 52-week high of 20.19 SAR and 6% above the low of 12.10 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10.31 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arabian Centres Co?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Henderson Land Development Company, Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arabian Centres Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 12.80 SAR, calculated fair value 10.31 SAR (−19%), Quality Score 61/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4321 calculated?
We run Arabian Centres Co through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10.31 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Arabian Centres Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 12.80 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 10.31 SAR, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arabian Centres Co right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (8.47 SAR to 19.92 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Arabian Centres Co (4321) come from?
Earnings per share at Arabian Centres Co grew +2.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arabian Centres Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The market capitalisation of Arabian Centres Co is 6.6B SAR (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arabian Centres Co is 2.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
Earnings per share at Arabian Centres Co are 2.26 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The dividend yield of Arabian Centres Co is 8.1% (payout 45.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The net margin of Arabian Centres Co is 51.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arabian Centres Co is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arabian Centres Co is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
The operating margin of Arabian Centres Co is 63.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
Revenue at Arabian Centres Co is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arabian Centres Co (4321)?
Earnings per share at Arabian Centres Co are growing −18.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arabian Centres Co (4321) carry?
The net debt of Arabian Centres Co is 19.5B SAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 22.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 28, 2026