Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.50 SAR – 6.74 SAR · fair‑value band 2.69 SAR – 7.19 SAR · the 4.51 SAR price screens above the 2.69 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Alinma Retail REIT Fund is a real estate investment fund. The fund focuses to invest in real estate assets, within Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) currently trades at 4.51 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.69 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 67.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 4.64 SAR per share, and 3 of the 7 models we run sit above the 4.51 SAR price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 0.4500 SAR, and 4 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.69 SAR (bear) to 7.19 SAR (bull), the price of 4.51 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit reported revenue of 102M SAR in FY2025 versus 59.0M SAR in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was −21.0M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 532M SAR (≈ $142M) · P/S ratio 5.48 · EPS (TTM) −0.1800 SAR · Dividend yield 8.0% · Net margin −20.7% · Return on equity −2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 30.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −40%, 4345 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.69 SARFair Value 2.69 SARBull 7.19 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.7% (2020) → 43.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−59% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−29% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.63× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF2.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.6× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4345
Frequently asked questions
Is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.69 SAR versus a price of 4.51 SAR, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4345?
Our model-based fair value for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 2.69 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.51 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4345?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.69 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.69 SAR, optimistic scenario 7.19 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.69 SAR, about −40% upside versus a price of 4.51 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.69 SAR, optimistic scenario 7.19 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 102M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit pay a dividend?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit would have to grow free cash flow by +14.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4345 use?
Our models discount Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit that is +14.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (+14.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.41 %: that much free cash flow Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit it is 2.69 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 4.51 SAR. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4345 trades above its calculated fair value: price 4.51 SAR, fair value 2.69 SAR, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4345?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.51 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.69 SAR). For Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit the two are 1.82 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit worth?
The market values Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit at about 532M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 4.51 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 2.69 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4345?
Our models span a range for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit: cautious scenario 2.69 SAR, base 2.69 SAR, optimistic 7.19 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 4.51 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −6.7%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4345 from its 52-week high?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit trades at 4.51 SAR, about 8% below its 52-week high of 4.88 SAR and 13% above the low of 3.99 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.69 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 4.51 SAR, calculated fair value 2.69 SAR (−40%), Quality Score 54/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4345 calculated?
We run Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.69 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit right now?
The model range is unusually wide (2.69 SAR to 7.19 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit
How large is the market capitalisation of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The market capitalisation of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 532M SAR (≈ $142M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 5.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Earnings per share at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit are −0.1800 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The dividend yield of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 8.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The net margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is −20.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The operating margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 30.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Revenue at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is growing −70.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) carry?
The net debt of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 644M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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