Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit stock SAR 6.59, price SAR 4.22, upside +56.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.50 SAR – 6.68 SAR · fair‑value band 2.25 SAR – 11.33 SAR · the 4.22 SAR price screens below the 6.59 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Alinma Retail REIT Fund is a real estate investment fund. The fund focuses to invest in real estate assets, within Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) currently trades at 4.22 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.59 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 36.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 6.66 SAR per share, and 6 of the 10 models we run sit above the 4.22 SAR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 1.24 SAR, and 4 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 2.25 SAR (bear) to 11.33 SAR (bull), the price of 4.22 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit reported revenue of 102M SAR in FY2025 versus 59.0M SAR in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was −21.0M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 498M SAR (≈ $133M) Micro · P/S ratio 5.48 · EPS (TTM) −0.4400 SAR · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin −58.9% · Return on equity −6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 56%, 4345 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear2.25 SARFair Value 6.59 SARBull11.33 SAR
Price 4.22 SAR · Upside +56.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.7% (2020) → 43.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.7% a year for the price.
Compare Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 90 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+56.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−58.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−28.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4345
Frequently asked questions
Is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6.59 SAR versus a price of 4.22 SAR, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4345?
Our model-based fair value for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 6.59 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.22 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4345?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6.59 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.25 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.33 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6.59 SAR, about +56% upside versus a price of 4.22 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2.25 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.33 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 86.8M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
Does Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit pay a dividend?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit currently shows a dividend yield of 8.53% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4345 use?
Our models discount Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.13 %: that much free cash flow Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit it is 6.59 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 4.22 SAR. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 4345 trades below its calculated fair value: price 4.22 SAR, fair value 6.59 SAR, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4345?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.22 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6.59 SAR). For Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit the two are 2.37 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit worth?
The market values Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit at about 498M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 4.22 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 6.59 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4345?
Our models span a range for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit: cautious scenario 2.25 SAR, base 6.59 SAR, optimistic 11.33 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 4.22 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −6.7%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4345 from its 52-week high?
Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit trades at 4.22 SAR, about 13% below its 52-week high of 4.84 SAR and 5% above the low of 4.00 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6.59 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 4.22 SAR, calculated fair value 6.59 SAR (+56%), Quality Score 59/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4345 calculated?
We run Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6.59 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 4.22 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 6.59 SAR, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit right now?
The model range is unusually wide (2.25 SAR to 11.33 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit
How large is the market capitalisation of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The market capitalisation of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 498M SAR (≈ $133M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 5.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Earnings per share at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit are −0.4400 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The dividend yield of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 8.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The net margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is −58.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
The operating margin of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345)?
Revenue at Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is growing −28.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit (4345) carry?
The net debt of Alinma Retail REIT Fund Unit is 644M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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