Topkey Corp (4536) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Topkey Corp TWD 296, price TWD 165, upside +79.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 107.34 TWD – 232.74 TWD · fair‑value band 233.21 TWD – 366.08 TWD · the 165.00 TWD price screens below the 295.77 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Topkey Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces, processes, sells, and trades in sporting goods in Asia, Europe, the Americas, and internationally. It operates through Sports Goods, Aviation, and Medical Products segments.
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Topkey Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces, processes, sells, and trades in sporting goods in Asia, Europe, the Americas, and internationally. It operates through Sports Goods, Aviation, and Medical Products segments. The company offers glass and carbon fiber products; composite materials; glasses; and helmets, lenses, and automotive/motorcycle, and safety equipment. It also provides agency services; designs, develops, manufactures, and sells precision molds, as well as production and processing of water-resistant and moldless labels; processes plastic and rubber products; and engages in international investment and trade activities. In addition, the company offers aviation and medical components; and rackets, as well as engages in thermoplastic material business. Further, it provides microscopic analysis of material, resin formulation, product structure, tooling design, module design and fabricate, and customized process design services. Topkey Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Topkey Corp (4536) currently trades at 165.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 295.77 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 44.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 276.75 TWD per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the 165.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 69.52 TWD, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 233.21 TWD (bear) to 366.08 TWD (bull), the price of 165.00 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Topkey Corp reported revenue of 9.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 8.7B TWD in FY2021, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B TWD in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.3B TWD (≈ $512M) · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) 14.83 TWD · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 14.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 79%, 4536 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 233.21 TWDFair Value 295.77 TWDBull 366.08 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.00 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+79% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Topkey Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4536
Frequently asked questions
Is Topkey Corp (4536) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 295.77 TWD versus a price of 165.00 TWD, about +79% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4536?
Our model-based fair value for Topkey Corp is 295.77 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 165.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4536?
Topkey Corp has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Topkey Corp (4536)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 295.77 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 233.21 TWD, optimistic scenario 366.08 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Topkey Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 295.77 TWD, about +79% upside versus a price of 165.00 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 233.21 TWD, optimistic scenario 366.08 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Topkey Corp (4536)?
Topkey Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Topkey Corp pay a dividend?
Topkey Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Topkey Corp (4536)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Topkey Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4536 use?
Our models discount Topkey Corp at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Topkey Corp that is -8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Topkey Corp (4536) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Topkey Corp grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies -8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Topkey Corp (4536) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Topkey Corp (-8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.71 %: that much free cash flow Topkey Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Topkey Corp (4536)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Topkey Corp it is 295.77 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 165.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Topkey Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4536 trades below its calculated fair value: price 165.00 TWD, fair value 295.77 TWD, a gap of about +79% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4536?
No. The price is what the market pays today (165.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (295.77 TWD). For Topkey Corp the two are 130.77 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Topkey Corp worth?
The market values Topkey Corp at about 16.3B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 165.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 295.77 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4536?
Our models span a range for Topkey Corp: cautious scenario 233.21 TWD, base 295.77 TWD, optimistic 366.08 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 165.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4536?
Topkey Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 295.77 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Topkey Corp (4536)?
Balance-sheet figures for Topkey Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.4%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4536 from its 52-week high?
Topkey Corp trades at 165.00 TWD, about 15% below its 52-week high of 195.00 TWD and 11% above the low of 148.00 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 295.77 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Topkey Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Topkey Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 165.00 TWD, calculated fair value 295.77 TWD (+79%), Quality Score 64/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4536 calculated?
We run Topkey Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 295.77 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Topkey Corp currently trades 79 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 165.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 295.77 TWD, about +79% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Topkey Corp right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (233.21 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Topkey Corp (4536) come from?
Earnings per share at Topkey Corp grew +9.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +8.5 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Topkey Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The market capitalisation of Topkey Corp is 16.3B TWD (≈ $512M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Topkey Corp is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Topkey Corp (4536)?
Earnings per share at Topkey Corp are 14.83 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The dividend yield of Topkey Corp is 4.8% (payout 53.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The net margin of Topkey Corp is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Topkey Corp is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Topkey Corp (4536)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Topkey Corp is 13.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Topkey Corp (4536)?
The operating margin of Topkey Corp is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Topkey Corp (4536)?
Revenue at Topkey Corp is growing −3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Topkey Corp (4536)?
Earnings per share at Topkey Corp are growing −29.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Topkey Corp (4536) hold?
Topkey Corp holds more cash than debt, 3.9B TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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