Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd TWD 18.43, price TWD 24.65, upside -25.2%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Song Ho Industrial Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells various steel products in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, Mainland China, Vietnam, and internationally.
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Song Ho Industrial Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells various steel products in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, Mainland China, Vietnam, and internationally. The company offers hard drawn steel, roping, spring, spokes, flat, annealed steel, and galvanized steel wires; and cross lay ropes, fiber core and independent wire rope core (IWRC) parallel lay ropes, elevator wire ropes, IWRC 8 standard elevator wire ropes, profile wire ropes, non-rotation ropes, strands impacted wire ropes, and galvanized steel wire strands, as well as wire ropes for suspension bridges. It also provides cold drawn steel bars, such as low and medium carbon, free cutting, alloy, and stainless-steel bars; spheroidized wires, including alloy steel, nipple, bearing, low carbon steel, middle-high carbon steel, and cold heading wires; and water-control gate machinery. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Nantou City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016) currently trades at 24.65 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.43 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 25.47 TWD per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the 24.65 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 11.49 TWD, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.05 TWD (bear) to 24.55 TWD (bull), the price of 24.65 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.9B TWD in FY2021, a compound −8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 74.4M TWD in FY2025, compounding −25.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.2B TWD (≈ $38.4M) · P/E ratio 12.6 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) 1.96 TWD · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −25%, 5016 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.05 TWDFair Value 18.43 TWDBull 24.55 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7049 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.9%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price.
Compare Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 411 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.58× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA7.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)70· sector 4
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)81· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5016
Frequently asked questions
Is Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18.43 TWD versus a price of 24.65 TWD, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5016?
Our model-based fair value for Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 18.43 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.65 TWD.
What is the quality score of 5016?
Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18.43 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.05 TWD, optimistic scenario 24.55 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18.43 TWD, about −25% upside versus a price of 24.65 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.05 TWD, optimistic scenario 24.55 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5016 use?
Our models discount Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd that is +20.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd grew -3.0 % a year. The price currently implies +20.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (+20.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.77 %: that much free cash flow Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd it is 18.43 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 24.65 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 5016 trades above its calculated fair value: price 24.65 TWD, fair value 18.43 TWD, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5016?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.65 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18.43 TWD). For Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd the two are 6.22 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd worth?
The market values Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd at about 1.2B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 24.65 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 18.43 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5016?
Our models span a range for Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd: cautious scenario 12.05 TWD, base 18.43 TWD, optimistic 24.55 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 24.65 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5016?
Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18.43 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
Balance-sheet figures for Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5016 from its 52-week high?
Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd trades at 24.65 TWD, about 24% below its 52-week high of 32.30 TWD and 4% above the low of 23.60 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18.43 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 24.65 TWD, calculated fair value 18.43 TWD (−25%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5016 calculated?
We run Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18.43 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 24.65 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 18.43 TWD, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (12.05 TWD to 24.55 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The market capitalisation of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 1.2B TWD (≈ $38.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
Earnings per share at Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd are 1.96 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The dividend yield of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 4.1% (payout 51.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The net margin of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
The operating margin of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
Revenue at Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is growing +13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016)?
Earnings per share at Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd are growing +217% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd (5016) carry?
The net debt of Song Ho Industrial Co Ltd is 392M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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