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Blue Dart Express Limited (526612) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Blue Dart Express Limited ₹2,234, price ₹4,504, upside -50.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · IN · ISIN INE233B01017

BD Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Blue Dart Express Limited

526612 · BSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value ₹2,234 · Strongly overvalued (−50.4%)
!Quality 58/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.5 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -5.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 4.4%
✓Low debt
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

₹9,270 ₹4,504 Fair Value ₹2,234 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹4,504 – ₹9,270 · fair‑value band ₹1,676 – ₹2,793 · the ₹4,504 price screens above the ₹2,234 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Blue Dart Express Limited provides courier and express services.

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Blue Dart Express Limited provides courier and express services. It provides day-definite and time-definite delivery schedules across air and ground network under the Domestic Priority, Dart Apex, Dart Surfaceline, and Dart Plus name; door-to-door ground distribution service to approximately 35,000 locations for shipments weighing 10 kgs and above under the Dart Surfaceline name; and industry-specific services. The company also offers air freight services between the airports of Kolkata, Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Ahmedabad; air and ground express packaging services under the Smart Box name; wood-free palletized packaging; transportation for freight of 100kgs, 75kgs, or 50kgs; door-to-door express deliveries for documents and packages; international services; and temperature controlled logistics solutions, as well as operates domestic express airline charter. Its infrastructure includes a fleet of 6 Boeing 757-200 freighters with a capacity of 500 tonnes per night; and a flotilla of approximately 22,336 vehicles. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India. Blue Dart Express Limited is a subsidiary of DHL Express (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.

Stock analysis

Blue Dart Express Limited (526612) currently trades at ₹4,504, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹2,234, 50.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹2,726 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹4,504 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹319.72, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ₹1,676 (bear) to ₹2,793 (bull), the price of ₹4,504 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Blue Dart Express Limited reported revenue of ₹57.2B in FY2025 versus ₹32.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹2.5B in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap ₹107B (≈ $1.1B) · P/S ratio 2.56 · EPS (TTM) ₹−17.63 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity −30.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8% · Operating margin 1.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −50%, 526612 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ₹1,676 Fair Value ₹2,234 Bull ₹2,793
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ₹2,018 ₹3,204 ₹4,928 79
Growth DCF ₹2,004 ₹3,080 ₹4,566 77
Owner Earnings ₹2,028 ₹3,219 ₹4,951 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ₹2,018 ₹3,204 ₹4,928 79
Owner Earnings ₹2,028 ₹3,219 ₹4,951 75
5Y Revenue Exit ₹1,658 ₹2,676 ₹4,002 71
5Y EBITDA Exit ₹2,767 ₹4,877 ₹7,458 73
5Y P/E Exit ₹1,683 ₹2,726 ₹3,864 70
10Y Revenue Exit ₹1,734 ₹2,675 ₹4,007 66
10Y EBITDA Exit ₹2,438 ₹4,118 ₹6,556 66
10Y P/E Exit ₹1,791 ₹2,708 ₹3,906 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹723.39 ₹2,935 ₹3,995 64
Lynch FV ₹734.24 ₹1,049 ₹1,364 61
PEG = 1.0 ₹734.24 ₹1,049 ₹1,364 57
EPV ₹1,172 ₹1,336 ₹1,473 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹194.23 ₹350.00 ₹481.82 68
DDM Multi-Stage ₹194.23 ₹319.72 ₹373.89 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹1,676 ₹2,234 ₹2,793 63
P/S Multiple ₹1,356 ₹1,808 ₹2,261 58
P/B Multiple ₹1,356 ₹1,808 ₹2,261 55
EV/EBIT ₹2,100 ₹2,810 ₹3,521 66
EV/EBITDA ₹3,591 ₹4,798 ₹6,006 67
EV/Revenue ₹1,489 ₹2,141 ₹2,793 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹328.52 ₹440.22 ₹657.05 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ₹2,004 ₹3,080 ₹4,566 77
Rev-Margin DCF ₹1,658 ₹2,675 ₹3,937 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹637.44 ₹803.83 ₹1,202 75
ROIC Compounder ₹1,279 ₹1,610 ₹1,999 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹1,278 ₹1,825 ₹2,373 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 68
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 7%

526612 screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −56.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −5.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 0.7× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $93.44 $107.34 +15%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €55.74 €137.08 +146%
FedEx Corporation FDX $289.65 $349.54 +21%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,199 kr 711.95 −41%
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €24.49 €14.24 −42%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 224.50 CHF 147.92 −34%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $188.58 $116.66 −38%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.54 ¥109.70 +259%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $226.07 $133.80 −41%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $148.24 $87.31 −41%

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Blue Dart Express Limited · Fair Value
₹2,234 −50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Blue Dart Express Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/526612

Frequently asked questions

Is Blue Dart Express Limited (526612) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹2,234 versus a price of ₹4,504, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 526612?
Our model-based fair value for Blue Dart Express Limited is ₹2,234 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹4,504.
What is the quality score of 526612?
Blue Dart Express Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹2,234 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹1,676, optimistic scenario ₹2,793. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Blue Dart Express Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹2,234, about −50% upside versus a price of ₹4,504 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹1,676, optimistic scenario ₹2,793. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
Blue Dart Express Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹28.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Blue Dart Express Limited pay a dividend?
Blue Dart Express Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Blue Dart Express Limited it is ₹2,234 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹4,504. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Blue Dart Express Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 526612 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹4,504, fair value ₹2,234, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 526612?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹4,504); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹2,234). For Blue Dart Express Limited the two are ₹2,270 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Blue Dart Express Limited worth?
The market values Blue Dart Express Limited at about ₹107B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹4,504; our models calculate a fair value of ₹2,234 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 526612?
Our models span a range for Blue Dart Express Limited: cautious scenario ₹1,676, base ₹2,234, optimistic ₹2,793 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹4,504). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
Balance-sheet figures for Blue Dart Express Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −30.1%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 526612 from its 52-week high?
Blue Dart Express Limited trades at ₹4,504, about 33% below its 52-week high of ₹6,682 and at the low of ₹4,504 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹2,234 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Blue Dart Express Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Blue Dart Express Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹4,504, calculated fair value ₹2,234 (−50%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 526612 calculated?
We run Blue Dart Express Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹2,234, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Blue Dart Express Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹4,504. Our model-based fair value is ₹2,234, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Blue Dart Express Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2,793). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Blue Dart Express Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
The market capitalisation of Blue Dart Express Limited is ₹107B (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Blue Dart Express Limited is 2.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
Earnings per share at Blue Dart Express Limited are ₹−17.63. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
The dividend yield of Blue Dart Express Limited is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
The net margin of Blue Dart Express Limited is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Blue Dart Express Limited is −30.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Blue Dart Express Limited is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
The operating margin of Blue Dart Express Limited is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
Revenue at Blue Dart Express Limited is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Blue Dart Express Limited (526612)?
Earnings per share at Blue Dart Express Limited are growing +189% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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