Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd stock TWD 13.41, price TWD 30.40, that is 55.9% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 29.90 TWD – 86.58 TWD · fair‑value band 10.86 TWD – 13.70 TWD · the 30.40 TWD price screens above the 13.41 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Chung Lien Co., Ltd engages in the real estate leasing and selling business. It is also involved in retailing of computer information products and software; and provides information maintenance services.
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Chung Lien Co., Ltd was formerly known as Chung Lien Transportation Co., Ltd. Chung Lien Co., Ltd was incorporated in 1954 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604) currently trades at 30.40 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.41 TWD, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 27.19 TWD per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the 30.40 TWD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 4.07 TWD, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 10.86 TWD (bear) to 13.70 TWD (bull), the price of 30.40 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd reported revenue of 159M TWD in FY2025 versus 150M TWD in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 92.2M TWD in FY2025, compounding −40.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.3B TWD (≈ $101M) Micro · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 20.4 · EPS (TTM) 1.05 TWD · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 70.2% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −56%, 5604 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear10.86 TWDFair Value 13.41 TWDBull13.70 TWD
Price 30.40 TWD · Downside -55.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−27.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.781% → 68%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 27.1%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.5% a year for the price.
Compare Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 472 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−55.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)70.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)69.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5604
Frequently asked questions
Is Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.41 TWD versus a price of 30.40 TWD, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5604?
Our model-based fair value for Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 13.41 TWD (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 30.40 TWD.
What is the quality score of 5604?
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13.41 TWD (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10.86 TWD, optimistic scenario 13.70 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13.41 TWD, about 56% lower versus a price of 30.40 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 10.86 TWD, optimistic scenario 13.70 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 162M TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.58% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd pays a dividend of 2.00 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Feb 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. The payout ratio is 190% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.19 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +40.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5604 use?
Our models discount Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd that is +40.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +40.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (+40.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.26 %: that much free cash flow Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd it is 13.41 TWD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 30.40 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 5604 trades above its calculated fair value: price 30.40 TWD, fair value 13.41 TWD, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5604?
No. The price is what the market pays today (30.40 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13.41 TWD). For Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd the two are 16.99 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd at about 3.3B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 30.40 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 13.41 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5604?
Our models span a range for Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd: cautious scenario 10.86 TWD, base 13.41 TWD, optimistic 13.70 TWD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 30.40 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5604?
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 13.41 TWD is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 16.7. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 20.4, EV/EBITDA 28.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5604 from its 52-week high?
Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd trades at 30.40 TWD, about 24% below its 52-week high of 39.85 TWD and 2% above the low of 29.90 TWD (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13.41 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 30.40 TWD, calculated fair value 13.41 TWD (−56%), Quality Score 66/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5604 calculated?
We run Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 13.41 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 30.40 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 13.41 TWD, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (13.70 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The market capitalisation of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 3.3B TWD (≈ $101M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 20.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
Earnings per share at Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd are 1.05 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The dividend yield of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 6.6% (payout 190%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The net margin of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 70.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
The operating margin of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 69.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
Revenue at Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is growing +3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604)?
Earnings per share at Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd are growing +47.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd (5604) carry?
The net debt of Chung Lien Transportation Co Ltd is 14.1M TWD (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026