SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED S$0.16, price S$0.04, upside +290.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.0320 SGD – 0.1011 SGD · fair‑value band 0.1400 SGD – 0.2240 SGD · the 0.0400 SGD price screens below the 0.1560 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Soup Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates restaurants. It operates in two segments, Operation of Restaurants; and Food Processing, Distribution and Procurement Services.
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Soup Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates restaurants. It operates in two segments, Operation of Restaurants; and Food Processing, Distribution and Procurement Services. The company processes, distributes and procures raw materials, and food and beverage products; and provides procurement, and job training and vocational rehabilitation services. It operates restaurant outlets in Singapore and Malaysia under the Soup Restaurant, TEAHOUSE by Soup Restaurant, LITTLE TEAHOUSE, and CAFE O brand names, as well as franchised outlets in Indonesia. The company was formerly known as Soup Restaurant Group Limited and changed its name to Soup Holdings Limited in May 2022. Soup Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI) currently trades at 0.0400 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.1560 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 74.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 0.5400 SGD per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the 0.0400 SGD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.0200 SGD, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.1400 SGD (bear) to 0.2240 SGD (bull), the price of 0.0400 SGD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED reported revenue of 37.5M SGD in FY2025 versus 29.6M SGD in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −1.2M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 11.2M SGD (≈ $8.7M) · P/S ratio 0.31 · Net margin −3.3% · Return on equity −16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 34.8% · Operating margin −4.5% · Revenue (TTM) 37.6M SGD · Revenue growth (YoY) +2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 290%, 5KI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.1400 SGDFair Value 0.1560 SGDBull 0.2240 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
23.3% (2020) → 21.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−26.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −27.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 207 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Is SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.1560 SGD versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of 0.0400 SGD, about +290% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 5KI?
Our model-based fair value for SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 0.1560 SGD (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): 0.0400 SGD.
What is the quality score of 5KI?
SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.1560 SGD (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.1400 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.2240 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.1560 SGD, about +290% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of 0.0400 SGD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 0.1400 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.2240 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 37.6M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED would have to grow free cash flow by -26.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5KI use?
Our models discount SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED that is -26.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies -26.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (-26.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 46.23 %: that much free cash flow SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED it is 0.1560 SGD per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 0.0400 SGD. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 5KI trades below its calculated fair value: price 0.0400 SGD, fair value 0.1560 SGD, a gap of about +290% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5KI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.0400 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.1560 SGD). For SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED the two are 0.1160 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED worth?
The market values SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED at about 11.2M SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 0.0400 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.1560 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5KI?
Our models span a range for SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED: cautious scenario 0.1400 SGD, base 0.1560 SGD, optimistic 0.2240 SGD per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 0.0400 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
Balance-sheet figures for SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −16.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5KI from its 52-week high?
SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED trades at 0.0400 SGD, about 58% below its 52-week high of 0.0946 SGD and 25% above the low of 0.0320 SGD (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.1560 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 0.0400 SGD, calculated fair value 0.1560 SGD (+290%), Quality Score 65/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5KI calculated?
We run SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.1560 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED currently trades 74 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at 0.0400 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.1560 SGD, about +290% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (0.1400 SGD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
How large is the market capitalisation of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
The market capitalisation of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 11.2M SGD (≈ $8.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
The net margin of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is −3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is −16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is 34.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
The operating margin of SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is −4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
Revenue at SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (5KI)?
Earnings per share at SOUP HOLDINGS LIMITED are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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