Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Haidilao International Holding Ltd HK$18.20, price HK$9.28, upside +96.2%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Haidilao International Holding Ltd
6862 · HKClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
What runs behind every stock
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$8.17 – HK$38.94 · fair‑value band HK$12.42 – HK$22.71 · the HK$9.28 price screens below the HK$18.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
Haidilao International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery businesses in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The company operates through Restaurant Operation, Delivery Business, Sales of Condiment Products and Food Ingredients, and Franchise Business segments.
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Haidilao International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery businesses in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The company operates through Restaurant Operation, Delivery Business, Sales of Condiment Products and Food Ingredients, and Franchise Business segments. It also operates a Chinese cuisine restaurant under the Haidilao brand that offers hot pot cuisine. In addition, the company is involved in technology; sale of condiment products and food ingredients; hotel operation; property investment management and consulting; and trading businesses. Haidilao International Holding Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862) currently trades at HK$9.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.20, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$18.76 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$9.28 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$4.83, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$12.42 (bear) to HK$22.71 (bull), the price of HK$9.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Haidilao International Holding Ltd reported revenue of 42.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 39.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.9B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$60.2B (≈ $7.7B) · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3200 · Dividend yield 8.2% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 39.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 96%, 6862 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare Haidilao International Holding Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 224 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $250.35 | $162.16 | −35% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $95.11 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.63 | $35.89 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $139.71 | $75.61 | −46% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.91 | $74.72 | +4% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $213.54 | $173.68 | −19% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $41.58 | $49.95 | +20% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $166.12 | $128.38 | −23% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $38.76 | $15.54 | −60% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $297.12 | $231.96 | −22% |
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Key figures of Haidilao International Holding Ltd
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