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Haidilao International Holding (6862) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$60.2B

HI Haidilao International Holding 6862 · HK
PriceHK$11.48
Fair ValueHK$18.09
Upside+57.6%
Quality72/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 9.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.11% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 76/100
Evidence: High Range HK$13.14 – HK$22.57 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from HK$17.98 to HK$18.09 (+0.6%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 58% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$13.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$48.13 HK$8.17 Fair Value HK$18.09 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$8.17 – HK$48.13 · fair‑value band HK$13.14 – HK$22.57 · the HK$11.48 price screens below the HK$18.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Haidilao International Holding (6862) currently trades at HK$11.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.09, implying the stock looks roughly 57.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Haidilao International Holding generated revenue of HK$43.2B at a net margin of 9.4%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$779M. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$13.14 (bear case) to HK$22.57 (bull case); at HK$11.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 58%, 6862 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$10.87 HK$18.40 HK$31.37 80
Residual Income HK$4.25 HK$5.01 HK$18.91 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$8.76 HK$14.11 HK$21.14 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$10.98 HK$19.30 HK$34.09 38
Owner Earnings HK$11.89 HK$21.00 HK$37.17 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$8.76 HK$14.23 HK$21.65 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$11.67 HK$20.32 HK$31.30 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$11.95 HK$20.90 HK$31.28 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$9.19 HK$14.68 HK$23.13 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$11.36 HK$19.18 HK$31.33 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$11.55 HK$19.61 HK$31.32 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$4.95 HK$24.20 HK$33.35 54
Lynch FV HK$6.50 HK$9.28 HK$12.06 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$6.50 HK$9.28 HK$12.06 46
EPV HK$6.73 HK$7.64 HK$8.44 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.83 HK$14.19 HK$22.52 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.83 HK$11.97 HK$14.90 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$12.02 HK$16.03 HK$20.03 63
P/S Multiple HK$7.00 HK$9.33 HK$11.66 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.55 HK$7.40 HK$9.25 55
EV/EBIT HK$13.32 HK$17.34 HK$21.37 53
EV/EBITDA HK$12.82 HK$16.68 HK$20.54 54
EV/Revenue HK$7.77 HK$10.57 HK$13.37 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9200 HK$1.24 HK$1.85 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$10.87 HK$18.40 HK$31.37 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$8.76 HK$14.11 HK$21.14 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.25 HK$5.01 HK$18.91 76
ROIC Compounder HK$7.05 HK$8.40 HK$9.86 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$10.31 HK$14.73 HK$19.14 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$19.30) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.24). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$43.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.9%
Net margin 9.4%
Return on equity 39.6%
Free cash flow HK$4.0B FY2025
P/E ratio 12.8
More key figures
Operating margin 12.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3200
Dividend yield 6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -13.6%
Net cash HK$779M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 84
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Haidilao International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery businesses in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The company operates through Restaurant Operation, Delivery Business, Sales of Condiment Products and Food Ingredients, and Franchise Business segments.

Full company description

Haidilao International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery businesses in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The company operates through Restaurant Operation, Delivery Business, Sales of Condiment Products and Food Ingredients, and Franchise Business segments. It also operates a Chinese cuisine restaurant under the Haidilao brand that offers hot pot cuisine. In addition, the company is involved in technology; sale of condiment products and food ingredients; hotel operation; property investment management and consulting; and trading businesses. Haidilao International Holding Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Haidilao International Holding reported revenue of HK$42.1B in FY2025 versus HK$39.1B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.9B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$42.1B
Latest YoY
−1.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.0%
Revenue +1.9%/yr
FY21 HK$39.1B
FY22 HK$31.0B
FY23 HK$41.5B
FY24 HK$42.8B
FY25 HK$42.1B
Net income
FY21 −HK$4.2B
FY22 HK$1.4B
FY23 HK$4.5B
FY24 HK$4.7B
FY25 HK$3.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +28.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +23.6 pp

of which total revenue +24.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp

EBIT margin −0.1 pp
Tax rate +1.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Haidilao International Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6862

Peer Group

Restaurants · 227 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +58% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 6.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.39× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.67× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 28
FUTURE 30 · sector 20
PAST 100 · sector 16
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 58

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCDS C$24.01 C$10.84 -55%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $105.49 $35.83 -66%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $34.63 $18.43 -47%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $163.54 $59.66 -64%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR C$104.19 C$36.37 -65%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $195.74 $173.68 -11%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $43.90 $55.10 +26%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $197.03 $104.89 -47%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $68.36 $12.80 -81%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $322.18 $231.96 -28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Haidilao International Holding (6862) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.09 versus a price of HK$11.48, about +58% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6862?
Our model-based fair value for Haidilao International Holding is HK$18.09 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$11.48.
What is the quality score of 6862?
Haidilao International Holding has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Haidilao International Holding (6862)?
Haidilao International Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$43.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6862?
The net profit margin of Haidilao International Holding is about 9.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Haidilao International Holding pay a dividend?
Haidilao International Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.11% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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