China Cyts Tours Holding (600138) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 5.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from ¥2.40 to ¥2.20 (−8.3%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +3.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.53 – ¥16.45 · fair‑value band ¥1.91 – ¥3.15 · the ¥7.03 price screens above the ¥2.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
China Cyts Tours Holding (600138) currently trades at ¥7.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.20, implying the stock looks roughly 68.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Cyts Tours Holding generated revenue of 11.6B CNY at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 14.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. Net debt stands at 3.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.91 (bear case) to ¥3.15 (bull case); at ¥7.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -69%, 600138 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥10.98) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Cyts Tours Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a tourism company in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Tourism Products and Services, Integrated Marketing Services, Hotel Business, Scenic Spot Operation and Real Estate Sales, and IT Product Sales and Technical Services segments.
Full company description
China Cyts Tours Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a tourism company in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Tourism Products and Services, Integrated Marketing Services, Hotel Business, Scenic Spot Operation and Real Estate Sales, and IT Product Sales and Technical Services segments. The company offers tourism services, such as group tours and free travel; public relations, sports marketing, conference management, and expositions; scenic spot tours, rural vacation tourism services, and real estate sales; and technical services. It is also involved in the investment, operation, and management of domestic mid- to high-end boutique hotel chains; and sale of IT infrastructure products, such as media switching servers, routers, and monitoring equipment. In addition, the company engages in the leasing and business services; and culture and arts activities. China Cyts Tours Holding Co., Ltd. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Cyts Tours Holding reported revenue of ¥11.3B in FY2025 versus ¥8.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥83.9M in FY2025, compounding +41.0%/yr from FY2021.
600138 screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 170 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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