AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 10.2B CNY (≈ $1.5B) · ISIN CNE0000019D6
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +22.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 758% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.42 – ¥56.22 · fair‑value band ¥2.90 – ¥4.84 · the ¥33.22 price screens above the ¥3.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) currently trades at ¥33.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.87, implying the stock looks roughly 88.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd generated revenue of 4.3B CNY at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue declined 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.6%. Net debt stands at 358M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.90 (bear case) to ¥4.84 (bull case); at ¥33.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -88%, 600391 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥24.96) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.05). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd engages in the production and manufacturing of aero-engine and gas turbine components in China. The company was formerly known as Sichuan Chengfa Aero-Science & Technology Co,Ltd. and changed its name to Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd in April 2017.
Full company description
Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd engages in the production and manufacturing of aero-engine and gas turbine components in China. The company was formerly known as Sichuan Chengfa Aero-Science & Technology Co,Ltd. and changed its name to Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd in April 2017. Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥4.3B in FY2025 versus ¥3.5B in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥60.9M in FY2025, compounding +30.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
600391 screens 88% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 234 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $354.39 | $116.71 | -67% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $211.99 | $88.37 | -58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | -45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.62 | $419.01 | -26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $269.34 | $50.43 | -81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $382.02 | $274.32 | -28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $549.95 | $356.59 | -35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | -54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.96 | $146.55 | -44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €246.70 | €171.13 | -31% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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