AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd ¥7.74, price ¥37.41, upside -79.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.42 – ¥56.22 · fair‑value band ¥7.64 – ¥9.68 · the ¥37.41 price screens above the ¥7.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd engages in the production and manufacturing of aero-engine and gas turbine components in China. The company was formerly known as Sichuan Chengfa Aero-Science & Technology Co,Ltd. and changed its name to Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd in April 2017.
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Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd engages in the production and manufacturing of aero-engine and gas turbine components in China. The company was formerly known as Sichuan Chengfa Aero-Science & Technology Co,Ltd. and changed its name to Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd in April 2017. Aecc Aero Science and Technology Co.,Ltd was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) currently trades at ¥37.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.74, 79.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥12.58 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥37.41 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.05, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.64 (bear) to ¥9.68 (bull), the price of ¥37.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 60.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding +30.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 13.4B CNY (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 220.1 · P/S ratio 3.10 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1700 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −79%, 600391 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥2.05 to ¥24.44). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥7.64Fair Value ¥7.74Bull ¥9.68
Price ¥37.41 · Upside -79.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1323 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF¥14.30¥24.44¥41.1077
Growth DCF¥14.21¥23.51¥38.2676
Residual Income¥3.90¥3.79¥3.8676
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥14.30¥24.44¥41.1077
Owner Earnings¥2.63¥4.24¥6.8874
5Y Revenue Exit¥7.10¥9.98¥13.5572
5Y EBITDA Exit¥9.94¥15.76¥22.8174
5Y P/E Exit¥6.87¥9.51¥12.3171
10Y Revenue Exit¥9.42¥12.92¥17.6466
10Y EBITDA Exit¥11.35¥17.02¥25.1267
10Y P/E Exit¥9.37¥12.58¥16.6464
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥1.25¥5.55¥7.5964
Lynch FV¥1.44¥2.05¥2.6761
PEG = 1.0¥1.44¥2.05¥2.6757
EPV¥3.18¥3.62¥3.9973
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥2.90¥3.87¥4.8463
P/S Multiple¥2.35¥3.13¥3.9257
P/B Multiple¥2.35¥3.13¥3.9255
EV/EBIT¥4.72¥6.15¥7.5965
EV/EBITDA¥8.40¥11.05¥13.7167
EV/Revenue¥3.49¥4.81¥6.1253
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.70¥3.62¥5.4153
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥14.21¥23.51¥38.2676
Rev-Margin DCF¥7.10¥10.12¥14.0072
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥3.90¥3.79¥3.8676
ROIC Compounder¥3.18¥3.62¥3.9971
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥2.36¥3.37¥4.3867
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.7% vs 6.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.6% a year for the price.
Compare AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−79.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.8% · Below median
Return on assets3.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)220.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.51× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.07× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF16.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA73.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)44· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600391
Frequently asked questions
Is AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.74 versus a price of ¥37.41, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600391?
Our model-based fair value for AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is ¥7.74 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥37.41.
What is the quality score of 600391?
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.74 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.64, optimistic scenario ¥9.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.74, about −79% upside versus a price of ¥37.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.64, optimistic scenario ¥9.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.28% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600391 use?
Our models discount AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd that is +6.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +6.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (+6.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.68 %: that much free cash flow AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd it is ¥7.74 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ¥37.41. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 600391 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥37.41, fair value ¥7.74, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600391?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥37.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.74). For AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥29.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd at about 13.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥37.41; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600391?
Our models span a range for AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.64, base ¥7.74, optimistic ¥9.68 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ¥37.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600391?
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 220.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.5, P/S 7.1, EV/EBITDA 73.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
Balance-sheet figures for AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600391 from its 52-week high?
AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥37.41, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥56.22 and 44% above the low of ¥26.03 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ¥37.41, calculated fair value ¥7.74 (−79%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600391 calculated?
We run AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was ¥37.41. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.74, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) come from?
Earnings per share at AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd grew +6.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The market capitalisation of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 13.4B CNY (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 3.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
Earnings per share at AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd are ¥0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 220.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The dividend yield of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 0.3% (payout 62.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The net margin of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
The operating margin of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
Revenue at AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391)?
Earnings per share at AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd are growing +245% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd (600391) carry?
The net debt of AECC Aero Science and Technology Co Ltd is 358M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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