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China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of China National Software & Service Co Ltd ¥9.84, price ¥31.39, upside -68.7%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · CN · ISIN CNE000001BB0

CN Some data Sep 24, 2026

China National Software & Service Co Ltd

600536 · SHG

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥9.84 · Strongly overvalued (−69%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 3 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥69.19 ¥17.91 Fair Value ¥9.84 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥17.91 – ¥69.19 · fair‑value band ¥7.80 – ¥11.89 · the ¥31.39 price screens above the ¥9.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

China National Software & Service Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides basic software and core application solutions in China and internationally.

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China National Software & Service Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides basic software and core application solutions in China and internationally. The company offers Galaxy Kylin desktop, Galaxy Kylin advanced server, and Starlight Kylin operating systems; and DM8 database management system, DM distributed database, database appliance DAMENG PAI, Dameng Qiyun database cloud service system, and GDMBASE. It also provides waterproof dam data leakage prevention, host monitoring and auditing, unified endpoint security management, printing and CD burning security monitoring and auditing, network access control, terminal security login and file protection, and electronic document security management systems, as well as consulting services for the protection of trade secrets of central state-owned enterprises; and communication power and environmental monitoring system. In addition, the company offers core applications for organization, taxation, railway, electricity, water conservancy, enterprise, and common application services; and operation support, application building, data service, and artificial intelligence platforms. Further, it is involved in application software services; computer system services; development and sale of computer software and hardware; research, development, production, and sale of core modules for automated ticketing systems; technical services; software and information technology services; information systems and integration; and business services. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536) currently trades at ¥31.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.84, implying the stock looks roughly 219.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥12.59 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥31.39 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.58, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥7.80 (bear) to ¥11.89 (bull), the price of ¥31.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

China National Software & Service Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −16.2%/yr. Reported net income was −41.4M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 29.3B CNY (≈ $4.4B) · P/S ratio 5.81 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0300 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin −12.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −69%, 600536 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥7.80 Fair Value ¥9.84 Bull ¥11.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥8.47 ¥11.07 ¥15.13 81
Growth DCF ¥8.48 ¥10.95 ¥14.72 80
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥10.31 ¥14.85 ¥20.36 76
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥8.47 ¥11.07 ¥15.13 81
5Y Revenue Exit ¥7.77 ¥9.87 ¥12.60 74
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥10.31 ¥14.85 ¥20.36 76
10Y Revenue Exit ¥7.89 ¥9.89 ¥12.70 68
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.60 ¥13.35 ¥18.75 69
Earnings-Based
EPV ¥7.19 ¥7.63 ¥8.01 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.3700 ¥0.7400 ¥1.13 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.3700 ¥0.6400 ¥0.7900 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥10.54 ¥12.59 ¥14.63 66
EV/EBITDA ¥12.03 ¥14.58 ¥17.12 67
EV/Revenue ¥7.50 ¥8.83 ¥10.16 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.92 ¥2.58 ¥3.84 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥8.48 ¥10.95 ¥14.72 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥7.77 ¥9.86 ¥12.42 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder ¥7.19 ¥7.63 ¥8.01 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 5
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.4% (2020) → 6.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.4% a year for the price.

600536 screens 219% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 710 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.22× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 15.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 0.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)54 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)19 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)3 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €182.32 €159.06 −13%
Shopify Inc SHOP $147.74 $64.36 −56%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.89 $104.82 +50%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $233.28 $344.41 +48%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $137.00 $150.70 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $302.95 $225.14 −26%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $336.59 $75.08 −78%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $247.48 $32.92 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $238.25 $454.04 +91%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $269.64 $177.51 −34%

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China National Software & Service Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥9.84 −219%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China National Software & Service Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600536

Frequently asked questions

Is China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.84 versus a price of ¥31.39, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600536?
Our model-based fair value for China National Software & Service Co Ltd is ¥9.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥31.39.
What is the quality score of 600536?
China National Software & Service Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥9.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.80, optimistic scenario ¥11.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China National Software & Service Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥9.84, about −69% upside versus a price of ¥31.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.80, optimistic scenario ¥11.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
China National Software & Service Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China National Software & Service Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China National Software & Service Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China National Software & Service Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +37.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600536 use?
Our models discount China National Software & Service Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China National Software & Service Co Ltd that is +37.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China National Software & Service Co Ltd grew -7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +37.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China National Software & Service Co Ltd (+37.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.00 %: that much free cash flow China National Software & Service Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China National Software & Service Co Ltd it is ¥9.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥31.39. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China National Software & Service Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600536 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥31.39, fair value ¥9.84, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600536?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥31.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥9.84). For China National Software & Service Co Ltd the two are ¥21.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China National Software & Service Co Ltd worth?
The market values China National Software & Service Co Ltd at about 29.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥31.39; our models calculate a fair value of ¥9.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600536?
Our models span a range for China National Software & Service Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.80, base ¥9.84, optimistic ¥11.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥31.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
Balance-sheet figures for China National Software & Service Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600536 from its 52-week high?
China National Software & Service Co Ltd trades at ¥31.39, about 43% below its 52-week high of ¥55.55 and 16% above the low of ¥26.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥9.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China National Software & Service Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China National Software & Service Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥31.39, calculated fair value ¥9.84 (−69%), Quality Score 37/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600536 calculated?
We run China National Software & Service Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥9.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China National Software & Service Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥31.39. Our model-based fair value is ¥9.84, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China National Software & Service Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥11.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of China National Software & Service Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The market capitalisation of China National Software & Service Co Ltd is 29.3B CNY (≈ $4.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China National Software & Service Co Ltd is 5.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
Earnings per share at China National Software & Service Co Ltd are ¥−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The dividend yield of China National Software & Service Co Ltd is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The net margin of China National Software & Service Co Ltd is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China National Software & Service Co Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China National Software & Service Co Ltd is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
The operating margin of China National Software & Service Co Ltd is −12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
Revenue at China National Software & Service Co Ltd is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536)?
Earnings per share at China National Software & Service Co Ltd are growing −7.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China National Software & Service Co Ltd (600536) hold?
China National Software & Service Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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