Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co (600559) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 11.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥11.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥6.02 to ¥11.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.91 – ¥37.86 · fair‑value band ¥6.02 – ¥11.60 · the ¥12.04 price screens above the ¥8.59 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co (600559) currently trades at ¥12.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.59, implying the stock looks roughly 28.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co generated revenue of 4.2B CNY at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥6.02 (bear case) to ¥11.60 (bull case); at ¥12.04, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -29%, 600559 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥13.88) versus Economic Profit (¥3.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of liquor and wine products in China and internationally. The company offers its products under the Hengshui Laobaigan, Chengde Qianlong Drunk, Bancheng Shaoguo wine series, Wuling liquor series, Wenwang Gongjiu series, and Confucius Family wine series.
Full company description
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of liquor and wine products in China and internationally. The company offers its products under the Hengshui Laobaigan, Chengde Qianlong Drunk, Bancheng Shaoguo wine series, Wuling liquor series, Wenwang Gongjiu series, and Confucius Family wine series. It is also involved in the breeding and sale of pigs, as well as the general cargo road transport business. Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is based in Hengshui, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co reported revenue of ¥4.1B in FY2025 versus ¥4.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥430M in FY2025, compounding +2.5%/yr from FY2021.
600559 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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