Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd ¥5.41, price ¥11.17, upside -51.6%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.91 – ¥37.86 · fair‑value band ¥4.64 – ¥8.38 · the ¥11.17 price screens above the ¥5.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of liquor and wine products in China and internationally. The company offers its products under the Hengshui Laobaigan, Chengde Qianlong Drunk, Bancheng Shaoguo wine series, Wuling liquor series, Wenwang Gongjiu series, and Confucius Family wine series.
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Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of liquor and wine products in China and internationally. The company offers its products under the Hengshui Laobaigan, Chengde Qianlong Drunk, Bancheng Shaoguo wine series, Wuling liquor series, Wenwang Gongjiu series, and Confucius Family wine series. It is also involved in the breeding and sale of pigs, as well as the general cargo road transport business. Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is based in Hengshui, China.
Stock analysis
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559) currently trades at ¥11.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.41, implying the stock looks roughly 106.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥10.68 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥11.17 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥3.20, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥4.64 (bear) to ¥8.38 (bull), the price of ¥11.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 430M CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 10.2B CNY (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 23.3 · P/S ratio 2.43 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4800 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at −52%, 600559 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.64Fair Value ¥5.41Bull ¥8.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2048 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 13%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600559
Frequently asked questions
Is Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.41 versus a price of ¥11.17, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600559?
Our model-based fair value for Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is ¥5.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.17.
What is the quality score of 600559?
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.64, optimistic scenario ¥8.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.41, about −52% upside versus a price of ¥11.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.64, optimistic scenario ¥8.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd it is ¥5.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥11.17. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600559 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥11.17, fair value ¥5.41, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600559?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥11.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.41). For Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd the two are ¥5.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd at about 10.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥11.17; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600559?
Our models span a range for Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.64, base ¥5.41, optimistic ¥8.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥11.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600559?
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600559 from its 52-week high?
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd trades at ¥11.17, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥17.33 and 2% above the low of ¥10.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥11.17, calculated fair value ¥5.41 (−52%), Quality Score 55/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600559 calculated?
We run Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥11.17. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.41, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥4.64 to ¥8.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559) come from?
Earnings per share at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd grew +25.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin +12.7 %, tax rate +6.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
The market capitalisation of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is 10.2B CNY (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is 2.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
Earnings per share at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd are ¥0.4800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
The dividend yield of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is 1.8% (payout 41.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
The net margin of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
The operating margin of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
Revenue at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559)?
Earnings per share at Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559) generate?
The free cash flow of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd is −358M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd (600559) hold?
Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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